货币政策方略：来自金融危机的教训

直至2007年8月．货币经济学理论和实证研究上的进展已经使经济学家和政策制定者认定当前存在着一门明晰的“货币政策科学”。中央银行就货币政策方略的绝大部分要素达成了一致,同时货币政策被认为在OECD国家取得了巨大成功：后者不仅保持着低通膨,而且通胀波动率也很低。此外,这些国家的产出波动率也下降了,而自20世纪80年代初以来的时期更被冠以“大缓和（Great Moderation）”的称号。货币经济学家和中央银行家都自我感觉相当良好。     

Theory creation and the methodological foundation of Post Keynesian economics

For the last 15 years there have been extensive discussionsabout the foundations of Post Keynesian economics. From thesediscussions, Post Keynesians have reached the consensus thattheir economics is based on a philosophical foundation of realismand critical realism. However, the methodological foundationof Post Keynesian economics, which refers to the methodologicalguidelines used for creating and developing theory, has receivedrelatively less discussion and development. The aim of thispaper is to stimulate discussion in this area by advocatingthat the method of grounded theory is consistent with criticalrealism and is a better and more developed set of guidelinesfor theory creation than the currently accepted alternatives.     

An integrated view of tests of rationality,market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy

This paper analyzes an important class of models in which expectations play an important role. Topics included in the analysis are tests of: (1) rationality of forecasts in either market or survey data, (2) capital market efficiency, (3) the short-run neutrality of monetary policy and, (4) Granger causality in macroeconometric models. The common elements of these tests are highlighted. In particular, cross-equation tests for rationality or the short-run neutrality of money are shown to be equivalent to more common regression tests in the literature. These results demonstrate that the exact specification of the relevant information set used in rational forecasts is not necessary for the cross-equation tests to have desirable asymptotic properties. Also discussed are the conditions for identification of coefficients and testability of hypotheses.     

The Impact on Interest Rates of Unemployment Announcements and Their Revisions

The announced changes in monthly employment reports and in weekly new unemployment claim reports are based on new levels and on revisions to previous levels. We analyze the effect on interest rates of surprises to these two separate components of the changes. We find that for weekly reports the effect on interest rates of the new level is greater than the effect of the revisions. For monthly employment reports, the two components’ effects have similar strength.     

Impacts of peers’ unethical behavior on employees’ ethical intention: Moderated mediation by Machiavellian orientation

Research suggests a direct negative relationship between peers’ unethical behavior and employees’ ethical intention. But several possible mechanisms might explain this relationship in more detail. For example, Machiavellianism is a personality trait characterized by interpersonal manipulation and the use of unethical means to achieve certain self‐interested ends, whether useful or pleasant. This article adopts an Aristotelian understanding of philia, related to three goods on which human relationships rest: useful, pleasant, and honest. We propose that Machiavellianism, a self‐interested, pragmatic personality orientation, might explicate the relationship between peers’ unethical behavior and ethical intention. The results of a structural equation model applied to a sample of 436 banking employees in Spain reveals that Machiavellianism partially mediates the relationship between peers’ unethical behavior and employees’ ethical intention. We also find that with a greater level of peers’ unethical behavior, the negative effect of Machiavellianism on ethical intention increases, and that when peers’ unethical behavior is nonexistent, the negative effect of Machiavellianism on ethical intention disappears. These findings advance current literature by revealing that unethical peers can indirectly influence ethical intention, through shaping Machiavellianism. Our study is also the first to show that pairing high Machiavellians with ethical peers can help to cancel out the negative influence of Machiavellianism on ethical intention.     

Hierarchical Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Plateau Response Function: Determining Optimal Levels of Nitrogen Fertilization

This article seeks to determine the optimal level of nitrogen to apply to winter wheat. The article makes two methodological contributions. One is to extend the estimation of a stochastic plateau function to the case where the plateau has a beta distribution instead of a normal distribution. The second is to adapt hierarchical Bayesian methods as an alternative to the frequentist approach to estimate wheat yield response to nitrogen fertilizer. The economically optimal rate of nitrogen varies between 64 and 169 kg/ha and is consistently higher with the Bayesian method and higher under most scenarios when nonnormality is assumed for the plateau parameter. Based on the likelihood odds ratio, the normal distribution is preferred with maximum likelihood estimation. But, based on the deviance information criterion, the beta model is preferred with the Bayesian estimation. Cet article a pour objectif de déterminer le niveau optimal d'azote à appliquer au blé d'hiver. L'article apporte deux contributions méthodologiques. L'un consiste à étendre l'estimation d'une fonction de plateau stochastique au cas où le plateau a une distribution bêta au lieu d'une distribution normale. La seconde consiste à adapter les méthodes bayésiennes hiérarchiques comme alternative à l'approche classique pour estimer la réponse du rendement du blé à l'engrais azoté. Le taux d'azote économiquement optimal varie entre 64 kg ha‐1 et 169 kg ha‐1 et est toujours plus élevé avec la méthode bayésienne et plus élevé dans la plupart des scénarios lorsque la non‐normalité est supposée pour le paramètre plateau. Selon le rapport de probabilité, la distribution normale est préférée avec l'estimation du maximum de vraisemblance. Mais, en fonction du critère d'information de déviance, le modèle bêta est préféré en utilisant la méthode d'estimation bayésienne.     

The Impact of an Increase in the Legal Retirement Age on the Effective Retirement Age

We analyze the impact of an increase in the legal retirement age on the effective retirement age in the Netherlands. We do this by means of a dynamic programming model for the retirement behavior of singles. The model is applied to new administrative data that contain very accurate and detailed information on individual incomes and occupational pension entitlements. Our model is able to capture the main patterns observed in the data. We observe that as individuals get older their labor supply declines considerably and this varies by age and gender. We simulate the current pension reform which aims at gradually increasing the legal retirement age from 65 to 67 and a hypothetical reform that immediately increases the retirement age to 67. The simulation results show a small impact on the effective retirement age for the first reform and a bigger impact for the second reform. Respectively, individuals postpone their retirement by \(<\) 1 month and 7 months on average; while differences across individuals mainly depend on their gender and health status.     

Free trade agreements without delocation

Small nations fear that FTAs with larger, richer nations will erode their industrial bases. These concerns are recognized in FTA and multilateral talks: small nations may explicitly or implicitly maintain higher trade barriers. Using a model where symmetric liberalization de-industrializes small, poor nations, we characterize the path of protection-asymmetries that allow liberalization without delocation. In welfare terms, the large nation prefers this no-delocation liberalization scheme only when barriers are sufficiently high; the small nation's ranking is reversed. An anti-delocation scheme involving international income transfers is also evaluated and found infeasible.
Accords de libre-échange quand il y a délocalisation. Les petits pays craignent que les accords de libre-échange avec des pays plus grands et plus riches n'entament leur base industrielle. Ces malaises sont reconnus dans les négociations bilatérales et multilatérales: on permet aux petits pays de maintenir explicitement ou implicitement des barrières commerciales plus élevées. A l'aide d'un modéle où la libéralisation des échanges engendre une désindustrialisation des petits pays pauvres, les auteurs identifient les niveaux d'asymétrie dans le niveau de protection qui permettent d'engendrer une désindustrialisation sans délocalisation. En termes de niveau de bien-être, le grand pays préfère cet arrangement sans délocalisation seulement quand les barrières commerciales sont suffisamment élevées; la préférence des petits pays est à l'inverse. On évalue un arrangement sans délocalisation impliquant des transferts internationaux de revenus, et on montre qu'il est impraticable.