Afterword on the Five-Year Outlook: Problems and promises

The editors offer a synthesis that reflects the motivations and concerns that underlie this volume and present “some reasonably tempered hopes and future prospects”. Among the former, they discuss “political/ institutional issues” impinging on the Outlook—its purpose, production, users, and feedback—as well as “technical/intellectual” ones. Among the latter, they note that for Outlook reports beyond the second, current signals are that the science policy community will be involved more substantially, and that contributions in general will be decentralized. They foresee the Outlook evolving into a forum for discussion and advocacy of future science-technology priorities.     

Determinants of cross-country consumption differences other than the real income difference

The variance of the equivalent income changes measures the degree to which real income fails to account for observed consumption changes. Such variances are applied and discussed in a cross-country context, together with their substitution and residual components, for data on 15 countries.     

Last Call: decreasing drunk driving among 21-34-year-old bar patrons

Any effort to decrease the toll of drunk driving must include efforts directed at people who drink in bars, particularly young adults who use motor vehicles after drinking. We designed a multifaceted social marketing campaign, Last Call, to increase the use of designated drivers and safe rides homes among 21-34-year olds. There were three components to the intervention: (1) use of taxi stands to promote taxi use; (2) point-of-sale information to patrons at partner bars and (3) a mass media campaign to support the designated driver/safe ride home message. Among the heaviest drinkers, the programme significantly increased the use of designated drivers and increased the use of taxis by 63%.     

Newer cardiac imaging techniques: multidetector CT angiography

An update of new developments with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) coronary angiography is presented. Similar to what has occurred with the introduction of other new technologies such as electron beam computed tomography (EBCT), life insurance medical directors are expected to evaluate a technology before there are sufficient data from large clinical trials. Well-performed studies of the performance of MDCT coronary angiography have only recently appeared. MDCT appears to perform well for excluding significant coronary disease, and will perhaps be useful in emergency room "rule-out" situations. Other applications may be for the diagnosis of significant coronary obstruction (> 75% stenosis), as well as for the evaluation of bypass grafts. Limitations include the requirement for radiologic contrast administration and significant radiation exposure. MDCT does not provide information on atheroma morphology. Given these limitations, MDCT coronary angiography utilization will grow, and it will prove to be a useful tool in specific situations.     

Corporate governance structure and product market competition

This article assesses the effects of the competitive structure of a product market on a firm’s corporate governance structure. Our model demonstrates that shareholders strategically determine the corporate governance structure, including the manager’s stock ownership and his controlling power over the firm, in order to maximize their utility in the product market competition. We find that the manager’s stock ownership is lower and his controlling power over the firm is higher when the firm’s product is more profitable or when competition within the product market is more severe. The inefficiency of the wealth transfer from shareholders to the manager also affects the corporate governance structure.     

Underwriter reputation and IPO issuer alignment 1981–2005

We examine the long-term performance and characteristics of firms that went public from 1981 to 2005. We find that long-run returns declined and the proportion of failed and failing firms increased with underwriter reputation. The IPOs marketed by the more reputable underwriters were more likely to fail or be failing in the post-1980s period, but were still better than those of less reputable counterparts. The characteristics of the firms marketed by the more reputable underwriters did not appear to change substantially from decade to decade. We conclude that external market forces rather than conscious changes by underwriters caused the shift in the relation between failure rates and underwriter reputation from the 1980s to the subsequent period. We also find the “flip” in relationship between underwriter reputation and initial IPO return identified in the literature disappears after controlling for additional factors.     

Accounting Quality in Eastern Europe after Communism

Research Question/Issue: This study, in the taxonomy of Schiehll and Martins (2016 Schiehll, E. and H. C. Martins. 2016. Cross-national governance research: A systematic review and assessment. Corporate Governance: An International Review 24 (3):181–99. doi:10.1111/corg.12158.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), examines cross-national corporate governance, within their “legal” category. It rests on the understanding that to fully grasp corporate governance it is essential to understand the embedded institutions. The research question is: Does an increase in legal quality cause an associated increase in the quality of corporate governance in the form of financial reports to investors? If so, this supports the fundamental importance of legal systems to earnings quality. Reliable evidence on whether there is an association between legal quality and financial reporting quality would be an empirical association showing that where legal quality is higher, earnings quality is also higher, and conversely.

Research Findings/Insights: The results show clearly that in 2005 and 2010, when adequate data are available for testing, earnings quality is poor: far more companies show small gains than small losses. A great deal of managerial discretion is exercised in arriving at accounting figures, since many amounts depend on forecasts of future events. A significant number of firms use that latitude to show positive earnings. As to patterns of earnings management among three clusters of countries, the small number of firms generally precludes strong statistically supported evidence of management within the clusters. Nevertheless, the whole is the sum of the parts, and the parts (clusters) indicate the clusters most responsible for the overall result. There is little evidence of small gains exceeding small losses in the Baltics, greater differences in the Visegrád countries, and big differences in southern Europe.

Theoretical/Academic Implications: Based on both (a) the historical background of legal systems and (b) attitudes concerning legal quality measured at the same time as the earnings measures, the accounting results are consistent with the prediction of a strong legal culture driving effective corporate governance.

Practitioner/Policy Implications: The results show that eastern firms, on aggregate, have yet to reach the level of their western counterparts. However, the differences do not seem highly significant, and indicate that convergence is close in this area. This, in turn, should guide and encourage legislators in their work.     

The relationship between population growth and standard-of-living growth over 1870–2013: evidence from a bootstrapped panel Granger causality test

This paper examines the linkages between population growth and standard-of-living growth in 21 countries over the period of 1870–2013. We apply the bootstrap panel causality test proposed by Kónya (Econ Model 23:978–992, 2006), which accounts for both dependency and heterogeneity across countries. We find one-way Granger causality running from population growth to standard-of-living growth for Finland, France, Portugal, and Sweden, one-way Granger causality running from standard-of-living growth to population growth for Canada, Germany, Japan, Norway and Switzerland, two-way causality for Austria and Italy, and no causal relationship for Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Sri Lanka, the UK, the USA, and Uruguay. Dividing the sample into two subsamples due to a structural break yields different results over the two periods of 1871–1951 and 1952–2013. Our empirical results suggest important policy implications for these 21 countries as the directions of causality differ across countries and time period.