Reciprocal social influence on investment decisions: behavioral evidence from a group of mutual fund managers

In this paper, I analyze reciprocal social influence on investment decisions in an international group of roughly 2,000 mutual fund managers who invested in companies in the DAX30. Using a robust estimation procedure, I provide empirical evidence that the average fund manager puts 0.69 % more portfolio weight on a particular stock if his or her peers, on average, assign a weight to the corresponding position that is 1 % higher compared to other stocks in the portfolio. The dynamics of this influence on choice of portfolio weights suggest that fund managers adjust their behavior based on the prevailing market situation and are more strongly influenced by others in times of an economic downturn. Analyzing the working locations of the fund managers, I conclude that more than 90 % of the magnitude of influence stems from social learning. Although this form of influence varies a great deal over time, the magnitude of influence resulting from the exchange of opinions is more or less constant.     

中国经济：一些希望的理由

【美国《商业周刊》12月10日】这段时间，来自中国的经济消息一点也不鼓舞人心。出口衰退在加深，第三季度的公司所得与去年同期相比下降13％，而工业产出增长达到7年来的低点，而且现金流的问题折磨着航空、制造商以及陷入困境的房地产企业。中国11月的汽车销售与去年同期相比下降10％，是经济增长放缓的最新证据。     

Data-based negotiator allocation management

Negotiation abilities are difficult to assess, and negotiation outcomes are difficult to predict. This leads to possible deficiencies in resource allocation for negotiation tasks. In this article, we discuss the merits of a data-based approach for the allocation of negotiators to negotiation tasks. We provide a framework for negotiation allocation management that includes a method for assessing negotiator strength. The negotiator strength measure compares observable negotiation outcomes relative to similar outcomes in similar situations. We provide examples for using our framework and show evidence for its appeal when using industry data. We discuss implications for managers and provide key takeaways.     

The Importance of Mutual Understanding Between External Accountants and Owner–Managers of SMEs

This study investigates the perspective of the owner–manager of a small or medium‐sized enterprise (SME) on the importance of mutual understanding with an external accountant. Mutual understanding means that the owner–manager understands what the accountant is saying and feels understood by the accountant. The results, based on 310 completed surveys of Belgian owner–managers, show that owner–managers who have a high level of mutual understanding use the advice of their external accountant more extensively. This is in turn positively linked to the financial health of an SME. Furthermore, several drivers that enable the establishment of a high level of mutual understanding are explored. Owner–managers with a high level of mutual understanding consider their accountant as a strategic partner, experience a high level of proactive behaviour with them, have a higher frequency of formal contact, and perceive informal contact as important. External accountants should consider these opportunities in their client management and training of internal staff. Education of clients and openness also seem very important, as the level of a client's accounting knowledge, the number of accounting topics owner–managers deal with, and transparency towards the accountant are significantly positively related to mutual understanding.     

Perverse Effects of Other-Referenced Performance Goals in an Information Exchange Context

We argue and demonstrate that an emphasis on outperforming others may lead to perverse effects. Four studies show that assigning other-referenced performance goals, relative to self-referenced mastery goals, may lead to more interpersonally harmful behavior in an information exchange context. Results of Study 1 indicate that assigned performance goals lead to stronger thwarting behavior and less accurate information giving to an exchange partner than assigned mastery goals. Similarly, in Study 2 performance goal individuals more subtly deceived highly competent opponents relative to lowly competent opponents, who received more blatant treatment. Finally, Studies 3 and 4 show in methodologically complementary ways that tactical deception considerations may account for the interpersonally harmful behavior of performance goal individuals.     

Aber bitte mit Gefühl — Der Einfluss von Emotionen auf die Preisfairness

Ausgangspunkt der interdisziplin?ren Preisfairnessforschung ist, dass Kunden ein Angebot nicht nur rational-?konomisch bewerten, sondern zus?tzlich beurteilen, wie fair dieses ist. Der Fokus dieses Beitrags liegt in der Analyse emotionaler Aspekte für die Bildung des Fairnessurteils bei Preisen. Auf Basis der Equity-Theorie wird die Relevanz von Emotionen für das Fairnessurteil nach Preiserh?hungen geprüft. Dabei best?tigen sich die vermuteten positiven Wirkungszusammenh?nge. Die Ergebnisse dienen der Ableitung von Handlungsempfehlungen für die Unternehmenspraxis und die Forschung.     

The usefulness of oil price forecasts—Evidence from survey predictions

This paper evaluates survey forecasts for crude oil prices and discusses the implications for decision makers. A novel disaggregated data set incorporating individual forecasts for Brent and Western Texas Intermediate is used. We carry out tests for unbiasedness, sign accuracy, and forecast encompassing, followed by the computation of coefficients for topically oriented trend adjustments and the Theil's U measure. We also control for the forecast horizon finding heterogeneous results. Forecasts are more precise for shorter horizons, but less accurate than the naïve prediction. For longer horizons, topically oriented trend adjustments become more pronounced, but forecasters tend to outperform the naïve predictions.     

Online Behavioral Advertising: A Literature Review and Research Agenda

Advertisers are increasingly monitoring people's online behavior and using the information collected to show people individually targeted advertisements. This phenomenon is called online behavioral advertising (OBA). Although advertisers can benefit from OBA, the practice also raises concerns about privacy. Therefore, OBA has received much attention from advertisers, consumers, policymakers, and scholars. Despite this attention, there is neither a strong definition of OBA nor a clear accumulation of empirical findings. This article defines OBA and provides an overview of the empirical findings by developing a framework that identifies and integrates all factors that can explain consumer responses toward OBA. The framework suggests that the outcomes of OBA are dependent on advertiser-controlled factors (e.g., the level of personalization) and consumer-controlled factors (e.g., knowledge and perceptions about OBA and individual characteristics). The article also overviews the theoretical positioning of OBA by placing the theories that are used to explain consumers’ responses to OBA in our framework. Finally, we develop a research agenda and discuss implications for policymakers and advertisers.     

The quality of public information and the term structure of interest rates

This paper analyzes the term structure of interest rates in an exchange-only Lucas (Econometrica 46:1429–1445, 1978) economy where consumers learn about a stochastic growth rate through observations of the endowment process and an external public signal. We allow for deluded consumers, who exaggerate the degree of covariation between the external public signal and the growth rate. With such consumers, there can be a premium for noisy external public information in long-term bonds and the social value of more precise public information can be negative. Moreover, our model can create excessive yield volatility and deviations from the expectations hypothesis.