Smoothing and Benchmarking for Small Area Estimation

Small area estimation is concerned with methodology for estimating population parameters associated with a geographic area defined by a cross-classification that may also include non-geographic dimensions. In this paper, we develop constrained estimation methods for small area problems: those requiring smoothness with respect to similarity across areas, such as geographic proximity or clustering by covariates, and benchmarking constraints, requiring weighted means of estimates to agree across levels of aggregation. We develop methods for constrained estimation decision theoretically and discuss their geometric interpretation. The constrained estimators are the solutions to tractable optimisation problems and have closed-form solutions. Mean squared errors of the constrained estimators are calculated via bootstrapping. Our approach assumes the Bayes estimator exists and is applicable to any proposed model. In addition, we give special cases of our techniques under certain distributional assumptions. We illustrate the proposed methodology using web-scraped data on Berlin rents aggregated over areas to ensure privacy.     

Popular Urbanization: Conceptualizing Urbanization Processes Beyond Informality

This article introduces the concept of popular urbanization to describe a specific urbanization process based on collective initiatives, self-organization and the activities of inhabitants. We understand popular urbanization as an urban strategy through which an urban territory is produced, transformed and appropriated by the people. This concept results from a theoretically guided and empirically grounded comparison of Mexico City, Istanbul and Lagos. Based on postcolonial critiques of urban theory and on the epistemologies of planetary urbanization, we bring urbanization processes in these urban regions into conversation with each other through a multidimensional theoretical framework inspired by Henri Lefebvre focusing on material interaction, territorial regulation, and everyday experience. In this way, popular urbanization emerged as a distinct urbanization process, which we identified in all three contexts. While this process is often subsumed under the broader concept of ‘urban informality’, we suggest that it may be helpful to distinguish popular urbanization as primarily led by the people, while commodification and state agencies play minor roles. As popular urbanization unfolds in diverse ways dependent upon the wider urban context, specific political constellations and actions, it results in a variety of spatial outcomes and temporal trajectories. This is therefore a revisable and open concept. In proposing the concept of popular urbanization for further examination, we seek to contribute to the collective development of a decentered vocabulary of urbanization.     

The advantages of a small European Monetary Union

The question whether European Monetary Union should include all the EC countries from the start or should initially be limited to a few core countries is again being discussed more intensely. What advantages would a small EMU have from an economic point of view? Which countries should be its founder members?     

Origins of reform resistance and the Southern European regime

With a particular interest for Southern Europe, this contribution develops a classification of obstacles to economic policy reforms. This classification covers approaches ranging from classical economics and political-economic explanations to more innovative explanations linked to behavioral economics. The subsequent part analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively to which extent the “Southern European regime” may imply a particular relevance of some of the potential reform obstacles classified before. We derive “reform ability profiles” which quantify several of the reform obstacles (or reform drivers) to compare EU countries in their likely reform predisposition. These profiles confirm particular Southern European weaknesses which tend to reduce the political-economic feasibility of long-term reforms: a low effectiveness in poverty protection, high intertemporal discounting and uncertainty avoidance, a poor information level of the population and deeply shattered trust in national institutions. In a microeconometric analysis based on Eurobarometer survey data, the analysis leaves the highly aggregated level and looks into the individual heterogeneity in reform acceptance. It is shown that several of the reform obstacles identified in theory are also empirically correlated with the individual inclination to accept reforms.     

Verantwortlich Organisieren

Gute Organisation als Wert — Der barmherzige Samariter aus der Bibel leistet nicht nur die Erstversorgung eines überfallenen, sondern ist auch Organisator: Er sorgt für Pflege und gibt Geld dafür. Beides zusammen kann heute kein Einzelner mehr leisten. Viele Professionelle arbeiten im Behandlungsprozess zusammen, was gute Organisation erfordert.     

Monopsony in the Labor Market,Minimum Wages and the Time Horizon: Some Unresolved Issues

This article discusses development of optimal solutions for monopsony in the labour market for the long run (when labour and capital are both flexible). It is shown that binding minimum wages up to a certain degree pushes the monopsonists to choose a high capital intensity of production, just as high as or even higher than that chosen when there is no regulation for minimum wages. Thereby, we demonstrate the existence of re-switching effects in the tradition of Piero Sraffa. The second part of the paper recalculates and analyzes earlier results by making use of the rather general constant elasticity of substitution production function. Based on a numerical solution for optimal monopsony under different regimes (no minimum wage, minimum wages of different values, etc.), we formulate a two-period game between the government and the monopsonistic firm (‘minimum wage game’). Finally, we analyze the relationship between the elasticity of substitution on the one hand and likely levels of employment on the other hand, after introduction of minimum wages.     

Possible External Shocks to Asia in 2001: How Vulnerable Are the Regional Economies?

In 2001, threats of a U.S. economic slowdown, a moderation of economic growth in the EU, sharp deceleration of the global electronics cycle, and high oil prices could be some of the potential external shocks clouding Asia's economic outlook. This article analyzes these external shocks and assesses which Asian economies are most (or least) vulnerable to these exogenous shocks. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

THE ECONOMICS OF COUNTERTERRORISM: A SURVEY

We provide a review of theoretical and empirical contributions on the economic analysis of terrorism and counterterrorism. We argue that simple rational‐choice models of terrorist behavior – in the form of cost‐benefit models – already provide a well‐founded theoretical framework for the study of terrorism and counterterrorism. We also hint at their limitations which relate to the failure of accounting for the dynamics between terrorism and counterterrorism that may produce unintended second‐order effects as well as for the costs associated with counterterrorism and its international dimension. We reevaluate previously proposed counterterrorism strategies accordingly. Finally, in the light of our findings, we discuss interesting areas of future research.