Die Abhängigkeit der Beschäftigung von Steuern, Budgetdefiziten und Löhnen

Die Regierungskoalition hat sich auf Eckpunkte ihres wirtschaftspolitischen Programms geeinigt. Damit wird die Hoffnung auf einen Abbau der hohen Arbeitslosigkeit verbunden. Werden die vorgesehenen Schritte zum Ziel führen?     

Der Behaviorismus

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Capital Controls, Liberalizations, and Foreign Direct Investment

This article evaluates the impact of capital controls and theirliberalization on the activities of US multinational firms.These firms attempt to circumvent capital controls by reducingreported local profitability and increasing the frequency ofdividend repatriations. As a result, the reported profit impactof local capital controls is comparable with the effect of 27%higher corporate tax rates, and affiliates located in countriesimposing capital controls are 9.8% more likely than other affiliatesto remit dividends to parent companies. Multinational affiliateslocated in countries with capital controls face 5.25% higherinterest rates on local borrowing than do affiliates of thesame parent borrowing locally in countries without capital controls.Capital control liberalizations are associated with significantincreases in multinational activity—property, plant, andequipment grow at 6.9% faster annual rates following liberalizations.The combination of the costliness of avoidance and higher interestrates discourages investment in countries with capital controls,and this effect is reversed upon liberalization of controls.(JEL F21, F23, F36, F42, G15, G32, G34)     

Staatsschulden als permanente Einnahmequelle

Seit Jahren hat in Deutschland die Kreditfi nanzierung ?ffentlicher Ausgaben eine miserable Presse. Die Kampagne hat zumindest in formaler Hinsicht Früchte getragen: Das Grundgesetz enth?lt seit 2009 (anscheinend) strikte Vorschriften, um Budgetdefi ziten einen Riegel vorzuschieben. Jedoch empfi ehlt sich ein weniger verkrampfter Umgang mit Staatsschulden, denn sie erfüllen nicht nur eine wichtige Funktion im Wirtschaftskreislauf, sondern sie erh?hen bei vernünftigem Gebrauch auch die Wohlfahrt der Bev?lkerung.     

Restructuring the credit process: behaviour scoring for german corporates

An instrument for automated monthly credit standing analysis based on data of the corporates current accounts is presented. Different methods of statistics and machine learning are used to develop scoring models for the supervision of debtors. The following methods were selected for model developement:

• Linear Discriminant Analysis
• Pattern Recognition (k‐nearest‐neighbours)
• Genetic Algorithms
• Neural Networks
• Decision Trees

The developed models were compared not only concerning their classification results but also concerning score distribution, transparency and IT‐realisation. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying Politically Connected Firms: A Machine Learning Approach*

This article introduces machine learning techniques to identify politically connected firms. By assembling information from publicly available sources and the Orbis company database, we constructed a novel firm population dataset from Czechia in which various forms of political connections can be determined. The data about firms' connections are unique and comprehensive. They include political donations by the firm, having members of managerial boards who donated to a political party, and having members of boards who ran for political office. The results indicate that over 85% of firms with political connections can be accurately identified by the proposed algorithms. The model obtains this high accuracy by using only firm-level financial and industry indicators that are widely available in most countries. These findings suggest that machine learning algorithms could be used by public institutions to improve the identification of politically connected firms with potentially large conflicts of interest.     

Multinationals as Arbitrageurs: The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment

Empirical evidence of imperfect integration across world capitalmarkets suggests a role for cross-border arbitrage by multinationals.Consistent with multinational arbitrage as a determinant offoreign direct investment (FDI) patterns, we find that FDI flowsincrease sharply with source-country stock market valuations—particularlythe component of valuations that is predicted to revert thenext year, and particularly in the presence of capital accountrestrictions that limit other mechanisms of cross-country arbitrage.The results suggest the existence of a cheap financial capitalchannel in which FDI flows reflect, in part, the use of relativelylow-cost capital available to overvalued parents in the sourcecountry.     

Ökonometrische Inflationsanalyse für Österreich 1960/1975

Summary The following econometric study analyses the inflationary process in Austria since 1960. Price equations are estimated for the period 1960/1973 and several subperiods with quarterly and yearly data, forecasts of the development of the GNP-deflator and the consumer price index are made for 1974 and 1975. In this way it is possible to quantify the relative importance of inflationary factors and to test the stability of the price determination structures. Special emphasis is laid on the rôle of monetary variables and of price expectations in the process of price determination.The conclusion of the study is that accelerating inflation in the 70ies can be explained by the same factors than creeping inflation of the 50ies and 60ies. Inflation has always been of a mixed type, though the relative weight of cost, demand, monetary and expectational variables changed during the observation period. There is no sign that a new type of inflation with new behaviour patterns was emerging in the last years. Even the extraordinary (externally influenced) price rise in 1974 can be explained by price functions of traditional structure. Forecasts for 1975 show no substantial diminuation of inflationary pressures.     

Consumer behaviour in Austria

Zusammenfassung Mit dieser Arbeit wollen wir vor allem zwei Fragen beantworten. Führen verschiedene Ansätze zur Erklärung des Konsumentenverhaltens letztlich zu ähnlichen Schätzwerten für Einkommens- und Preiselastizitäten, so daß es nicht von übermäßiger Bedeutung ist, für welchen Ansatz man sich entscheidet. Verursachte die Rezession von 1975 eine Änderung im Verhalten der Konsumenten, wie dies manchmal unterstellt wurde. Um diese Fragen zu klären, testeten wir vier gängige Konsumtheorien mit österreichischen Daten, und zwar eine in den Logarithmen lineare Konsumfunktion, die Theorie der Konsumgewohnheiten vonBrown, das Modell vonHouthakker—Taylor und den Ansatz vonCoen—Hickman. Die Auswahl dieser Ansätze zur Erklärung des Konsumentenverhaltens erfolgte nicht rein willkürlich. Ursprünglich beabsichtigten wir alle bedeutenden Konsumtheorien zu testen. Dieses Vorhaben scheiterte aber daran, daß die dafür benötigten Daten in Österreich zur Zeit noch nicht vorhanden sind. Wir mußten uns daher mit einem Test der oben erwähnten Konsumtheorien zufrieden geben.

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Contributed paper presented at the European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Vienna, September 6–9, 1977.     

Claim recall and irritation in television commercials: An advertising effectiveness study

The purpose of this research was to measure the relationship between advertising effectiveness and the levels of irritation possessed by the advertisements. A set of television commercials was first assigned to an empirically-derived irritation continuum. Subjects were exposed to the commercials and claim-recall measures were taken immediately after exposure and 48 hours later. Results indicate that both highly irritating and relatively pleasant advertising messages generated higher claim recall than did advertising which was neutral in this dimension. Acknowledgements: The author would like to thank Professor Edwin C. Hackleman for his guidance and assistance in the preparation of this paper.