Die mittelfristigen Folgen der Wechselkurspolitik für Leistungsbilanz und Inflationsrate

Summary Nowadays it is uncontested that price elasticities of demand for exports and imports are high enough to secure an improvement of the current account of the balance of payments in the case of an exchange rate devaluation. Indeed it may take some time until the effects materialize and the primary effect may even run in the opposite direction. However, doubts arise about the favourable reaction of the current account if secondary price and wage effects are taken into consideration—what has been done more thoroughly in recent times.The present study deals with the medium term aspects of exchange rate changes in Austria. In order to quantify exchange rate effects on foreign trade and prices double weighted exchange rate indices and double weighted foreign trade price indices were computed and a simple econometric model was built. Behavioural equations for quantities and prices of exports and imports (as far as possible, disaggregated for raw materials, energy and manufactures), for domestic prices and wages were estimated. In addition to this model exchange rate effects on tourism were considered separately. In order to evaluate the consequences of the revaluation of the Austrian Schilling simulations were run under the assumption that in the period 1972 till 1976 Austria had kept constant the average exchange rate of the currencies of its main trading partners (competitors). The main results are as follows: If Austria had pursued a constant exchange rate policy in terms of the export weighted exchange rate index during the years 1972 to 1976 instead of actually revaluating the Schilling by 19 percent the volume of exports would have been higher by 1 billion Schilling (at 1970 prices) whereas the volume of imports would have been lower by 16 billions Schilling; measured in current prices exports and imports would have been higher by 59 billions and 60 billions, respectively, and the receipts from tourism would have grown faster by 12 billions. Therefore, the trade balance would have deteriorated by 1 billion and the current account would have improved by 11 billions. By 1976 consumer prices and wages would have reached a higher level (+7 3/4 percent and +5 1/4 percent, respectively). The results of this study are not in contradiction to those obtained in comparable work for other countries.There is some indication pointing to a further deterioration of the current account in the longer run: The revaluation caused profit squeeze which hits exporters as well as import competing domestic producers may weaken investment and the ability to maintain market shares. The revaluation could favour the sheltered sector of the economy in comparison to the exposed sector and shift the structure of the economy to the disadvantage of the current account.     

Die Geldnachfrage in Österreich

Ohne ZusammenfassungDiese Arbeit wurde als Forschungsprojekt am Institut für höhere Studien, Wien, verfaßt. Die Verfasser danken Dr. H. Otruba, Assistent am Institut für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Universität Wien, für eine kritische Durchsicht des Manuskripts und für wertvolle Kommentare.     

WTO Dispute Settlement: An Economic Analysis of Four EU–US Mini Trade Wars—A Survey

Since its inception in 1995, more than 312 disputes have been raised under the WTO Dispute Settlement System. Despite the obvious success of this system, several shortcomings call for a revision under the auspices of the Doha Development Round. With a computable general equilibrium model we analyze the four most prominent trade disputes between the EU and the USA, which we call mini trade wars: the Hormones, the Bananas, the Foreign Sales Corporations and the Steel cases. The economic analysis revealed several flaws and peculiarities: As a rule, retaliatory tariffs are detrimental to welfare of the retaliating country and amount to shooting oneself in the foot. Trade wars can only be won by large countries. The WTO arbitrator's estimation of the trade loss in case of non-compliance never translates into equivalent damage to economic welfare. A mechanism to control the collection of retaliatory tariff revenues is missing as is a system to compensate the firms suffering the damage. The major conclusion therefore is that tariffs are very bad instruments for countermeasures. The sanctions mechanism of the Dispute Settlement System should be improved, maybe based on a mechanism of direct transfers.     

Transfer und Preisbewegung

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Begriffliches und Terminologisches zur Kapitalstheorie

Ohne ZusammenfassungNach einem einen Diskussionsabend der Nationalökonomischen Gesellschaft in Wien einleitenden Referat.     

Robinson and Marshall-Lerner conditions with positive import content of exports

The usual Robinson and Marshall-Lerner conditions were derived under the assumption that exports are produced with domestic resources only. If, however, one takes into consideration that the ‘import content of exports’ is positive, the export price elasticities in the Robinson and Marshall-Lerner conditions have to be corrected accordingly. This correction factor is larger for smaller countries, because they are more intensely engaged in international trade.