Energienachfrage und Potential Output in Gesamtwirtschaft und Industrie

Summary The purpose of this article is to estimate the effects of the quadrupling of oil prices at the end of 1973 on potential output of the Austrian economy as a whole and of manufacturing in particular. The hypothesis is tested that the increase of relative energy prices (energy prices relative to domestic prices) makes previous measures of potential output obsolete. Using dynamic Cobb-Douglas type production functions for estimating potential output leads to the following results. If energy is implemented in the production function (either directly as a third factor in addition to capital and labour or indirectly via relative energy prices) there is strong evidence that part of the prerecession potential output has become obsolete in the recession of 1975. A comparison with an estimated potential output which doesn't take into account energy as a factor of production indicates that such a procedure could lead to wrong policy conclusions.

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Empirica 2'78 Zeitschrift des Österreichischen Institutes für Wirtschaftsforschung

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Für wertvolle Anregungen danke ich den Universitätsprofessoren Dr.E. Streissler und Dr.G. Tichy.     

Benefits and Dangers of EU Enlargement

A new macroeconomic evaluation of EU enlargement is undertaken with a world macroeconomic model taking into account all possible integration effects: trade effects, Single Market effects, factor movements (FDI, migration) and the costs of enlargement. Due to the differences in size of the regions involved, on average the CEEC – measured in terms of real GDP – will gain around 10 times more from enlargement than the EU. Hungary and Poland can increase their real GDP by around 8 to 9 percent over a 10-year period, the Czech Republic gains a little bit less (5 to 6 percent). The EU on average would gain around 0.5 percent of real GDP over a 6-year period. Although, on average enlargement is a win-win game, the impact is quite different in the separate EU member states, with Austria, Germany and Italy gaining the most and losses for Spain, Portugal and Denmark. Hence, EU enlargement may not only be beneficial but might be a risky undertaking. Due to the regional different impact, enlargement acts like an exogenous shock leading to asymmetric disturbances in the EU. This could pause the process of business cycle synchronisation and might impair monetary policy in Euroland at the beginning of the enlargement process. A two-step integration of the CEEC into the EU – first the participation in the Single Market and only later into the EMU – is therefore preferable under the aspect of macroeconomic stability in Euroland.     

How Reliable Are Estimations of East-West Trade Potentials Based on Cross-Section Gravity Analyses?

Gravity equations have been used repeatedly to predict the East-West trade potential since the opening-up of Eastern Europe in 1989. Most of the research in the field was done by means of cross-section data. While earlier studies indicated huge unexhausted bilateral trading potentials for the East and for the West, more recent studies have demonstrated that most of the East-West trading potential has already been consumed. In this paper, we provide insights into the prediction performance of cross section gravity equations (applied for level projections). We found rather large forecast interval spans around the predicted values. The intervals are of a size that makes any conclusions about absolute trade potentials questionable. Thus we think that cross-section gravity analysis does not permit any definite judgment as to whether actual East-West trade has already reached its potential level.     

A Study of the Relationship Between Personal Values and Moral Reasoning of Undergraduate Business Students

This study examines values and value types as well as scores in levels of moral reasoning for␣students enrolled in a business program. These two factors are measured using the Schwartz Personal Values␣Questionnaire and the Defining Issues Test 2. No statistically significant differences in levels of moral␣reasoning, rankings of values, and value types could be attributed to gender. However, eight significant correlations between value types and levels of moral reasoning provide evidence that a systematic relationship exists. The relationships are not only internally consistent but also consistent with the model of values based on motivational goals (Schwartz S. H. and K. Boenke: 2004, Journal of Research in Personality, 38 230–255). Dr. George Lan, (Ph.D. Management, Queen’s University, Canada) is an Associate Professor of Accounting and a member of the Certified General Accountants of Ontario. His research interest and publications are in the area of business ethics and governance, accounting education and earnings management. Dr. Maureen P. Gowing (Ph.D. Management, Queen’s University, Canada) is an Assistant Professor of Accounting. She is a co-author of both a financial and managerial accounting text and has published articles on ethics and cost control, efficacy of health systems management, and gender differences in oral communication. Dr. Sharon McMahon (Ed.D. Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan in Curriculum Development and Counseling is an Associate Professor, Faculty of Nursing. Research interests include health and wellness of children and families, health behavior outcomes, and learner’s satisfaction. Author and co-author of publications related to nonprofit governance she integrates her lived experience as a board member on several nonprofit boards and professional organizations. Dr. Fritz Rieger (Ph.D. in Management, McGill University, Canada) is an Associate Professor of Business Policy and Strategy. His research interests and publications are in the areas of ethics, organizational behavior, systems theory, modeling, culture, and immigrant entrepreneurship. Dr. Norman King (Ph.D. in Religious Studies, University of St. Michael’s College, Canada) is a Full Professor (retired) in the department of Languages, Literatures and Cultures. He has authored and co-authored many publications in contemporary spirituality and Western religious thought and remains an active board member of the Children’s Aid Society.     

科隆与中国

科隆与中国的关系已经有很长的历史了.据史料记载,在中世纪科隆和中国就有交往.科隆历史上著名的数学家、天文学家、神学家Johann Schall Von Bell在北京享有很高的威望：他被封为一品官员.二战以后,科隆在德意志联邦共和国与世界上人口最多的国家开展商业合作方面也发挥了极其重要的作用.40年前,位于科隆的Otto集团和Wilhelm lspert公司是最先与中国开展经贸合作的德国公司.     

Modeling Impact of Development Trajectories and a Global Agreement on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation on Congo Basin Forests by 2030

The Congo Basin encompasses the second largest rainforest area after the Amazon but the Congo Basin rainforest has been more preserved during the last decades with a much lower deforestation rate. At the same time, the region remains one of the least developed in the world. We use the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM for the global agricultural, forestry and bioenergy sectors that seeks to find optimal land use options by spatially representing land qualities. We show the trade-offs between achieving agricultural growth at the expense of forests and protecting forests at the expense of agriculture development in the Congo Basin. The realization of the transportation infrastructures, which are already planned and funded, could multiply deforestation by three. In contrast, a global agreement on reduction of total emissions from deforestation could achieve important cuts in GHG emissions from deforestation in the Congo Basin. However, it could lead to substantial increases in food imports and food prices, which are in contradiction with the food security objectives.     

Economic policy facing exogenous shocks

Zusammenfassung In diesem Aufsatz wird, im Gegensatz zu den Verfechtern der Neuen klassischen Makroökonomie, von der Auffassjng ausgegangen, daß — gerade unter den institutionellen Gegebenheiten der österreichischen Wirtschaft — die Beurteilung wirtschaftspolitischer Maß-nahmen mit Hilfe eines ökonometrischen Modells nützlich und informativ sein kann. Die Simulationsexperimente werden mit der Prognoseversion des WIFO-JMX-Modells ausgeführt. Als Kontrollösung dient eine plausibles Szenario für die Entwicklung der österreichischen Wirtschaft in den Jahren 1982 bis 1987. Die auf diese Weise modellhaft dargestellte österreichische Wirtschaft wird dann alternativ zwei exogenen Schocks ausgesetzt: 1. Der Wachstumspfad der ausländischen Nachfrage wird um jährlich einen Prozentpunkt geringer als in der Kontrollösung angenommen; 2. der Preis importierter Energie ist ab 1982 um 30% höher als in der Kontrollösung. Es wird dann weiter untersucht, ob der isolierte oder kombinierte Einsatz der wichtigsten Instrumente der österreichischen Wirtschaftspolitik (öffentliche Ausgaben, Wechselkurspolitik und Einkommenspolitik) die Auswirkungen dieser Schocks auf die Hauptzielgrößen (Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung, Inflation, Leistungsbilanz und Budgetdefizit) kompensieren oder zumindest mildern kann.Die Ergebnisse der Simulationen können folgendermaßen zusammengefaßt werden: Fiskalpolitik, also eine Erhöhung der öffentlichen Ausgaben, ist zwar ein wirksames Instrument zur Erreichung des Wachstums- und Beschäftigungszieles, zeitigt aber in erheblichem Ausmaß negative Einflüsse auf Leistungsbilanz und Budgetdefizite. Der inflationäre Effekt expansiver Fiskalpolitik kann vernachlässigt werden. Auch die Wechselkurspolitik, im vorliegenden Fall eine Abwertung des Schillings gegenüber der Annahme in der Kontroll-lösung, kann nicht konfliktfrei einem bestimmten Ziel zugeordnet werden. Sie kann zur Stimulierung des Wirtschaftswachstums und zur Senkung der Budgetdefizite eingesetzt werden, jedoch nur um den Preis einer fühlbaren Inflationsbeschleunigung. Die Leistungsbilanz wird dadurch kaum berührt. Die Einkommenspolitik in Form reduzierter Nominallohnzuwachsraten scheint schließlich vor allem zur Ansteuerung des außenwirtschaftlichen Gleichgewichtes und des Preisstabilitätszieles geeignet, in geringerem Maße beeinflußt sie das Defizit der öffentlichen Haushalte. Auch hier zeigt sich ein gewisser Konflikt zwischen dem letztgenannten Ziel und den beiden vorher erwähnten Zielen. Kombiniert man die drei Instrumente in verschiedener Weise, so lassen sich zwar die Konflikte mildern, eine Lösung, die es gestattet, alle vier Ziele gleichzeitig zu erreichen, konnte allerdings nicht gefunden werden. Will man nicht eines der Ziele aufgeben oder ein zusätzliches Instrument einführen — Auswege, die aus politischen Gründen kaum offenstehen —, so wird man versuchen müssen, Ausgaben und Einnahmen der öffentlichen Haushalte effizienter zu strukturieren und die Verbesserung der Produktionsstruktur der österreichischen Wirtschaft vorrangig zu fördern. Dadurch wird sich das Problem zwar nicht ganz lösen, Jedoch eine Verbesserung der Situation erreichen lassen.     

Disaster relief, inc

When disaster strikes, many corporations respond generously. After the 2004 tsunami, for instance, U.S. firms alone contributed more than half a billion dollars in cash and in-kind donations. But a host of reactive efforts don't produce the best results-and may even get in the way. To make the most of their humanitarian efforts, companies need to address two fundamental questions: What kind of aid do we want to contribute--philanthropic (money and in-kind donations) or integrative (backroom, operational assistance)? And how do we want to contribute it--by working one-on-one with a single agency or by joining a consortium? The permutations of those two decisions lead to four different approaches, each with its own strengths and challenges. Single-company philanthropic partnerships work well when there's a good match between what a company wants to contribute and what an agency needs, as with Coca-Cola's donations of water to the Red Cross. More diffuse, but also potentially more effective, are the benefits of joining a multicompany philanthropic partnership, which enables the resources of many firms to be matched to the missions of many agencies. More difficult to establish but more fundamental in its impact is a single-company integrative partnership, in which a corporation works to improve the way an aid agency operates, as the logistics giant TNT has done to help the distribution efforts of the World Food Programme. And most difficult to implement--but potentially most effective-is a multicompany integrative partnership, which brings to bear the collective best practices of many companies to improve the response capabilities of multiple agencies. It's easy to see why the image of a relief worker carrying a sack of grain delivers an emotional wallop, but the behind-the-scenes work of process enhancement is just as crucial to humanitarian efforts. The sooner executives realize this, the better positioned the world will be to respond to global disasters.