International trade,risk taking and welfare

This paper shows that the gains from opening up to international trade are smaller when firms do not fully internalize downward risk. I develop a general equilibrium model with two key assumptions. First, when faced with adverse productivity shocks, employers can lay off workers without fully paying the social costs of their layoff decisions, a common feature of many institutions. Second, when opening to international trade, the elasticity of demand perceived by an industry increases. In this setup, I show that international trade induces firms to take more risk and (i) raises the equilibrium unemployment rate, (ii) increases the volatility of sectoral sales and (iii) increases welfare proportionately less than in the absence of the externality. Inducing firms to internalize the costs of layoff (Blanchard and Tirole, 2003) therefore appears even more important in a globalized world.     

Billboard and cinema advertising: Missed opportunity or spoiled arms?

Advertising remains one of the most popular marketing instruments, and many studies have studied its sales effectiveness. However, prior research has either looked at the total spending of a brand/firm, or has focused on the most popular media, especially TV advertising. Even though huge amounts are also spent on “smaller” media such as billboards and cinema, little is known on their effectiveness.     

Team Climate,Team Cognition,Team Intuition,and Software Quality: The Moderating Role of Project Complexity

Teams represent a prevailing approach to getting work done in today’s hypercompetitive business environment. Although there is a widely held assumption that team-related capabilities determine the success of new product development projects, empirical research on team capabilities is scant. Based on the resource-based view of the firm, organizational learning theory, and situated learning theory, this study investigates the interrelationships among team climate, two information-processing capabilities (i.e., team cognition and team intuition), and software quality. As well, this study explores the moderating effect of project complexity between the information-processing capabilities and the quality of the software. In studying the data from 139 software development projects using the partial least squares structural equation modeling methods, we found that team climate has a direct influence on team cognition. Moreover, the findings showed that team cognition was positively related to the quality of the software product in general; in particular, this relationship was found to be far more significant when project complexity was used as a moderator. This finding indicates that the software development team’s ability to process information logically in order to interpret situations effectively allows the team to launch superior software products when unexpected and undesirable events make a project complicated and challenging to perform. In particular, managers should encourage teams to benefit from new ideas and make collective efforts for reaching goals. Managers should also enable teams to specialize in their tasks and improve their collective information-processing capabilities.     

Evolving regulations and emerging market challenges – the Indian context

The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 has led to important regulatory changes being initiated by a number of countries to segregate commercial banking from investment banking activities. The changes also encompass reforms in the OTC derivatives market segment, which is considered to be one of the root causes of the crisis. This article highlights the important regulatory change initiatives that are being undertaken to enhance the safety of the financial markets, their likely impact on the market participants and challenges to be faced in their implementation, especially in the Indian context. The article also analyses the changes taking place in the Indian forex derivatives market and touches upon the prospects of greater internationalization of the rupee against the backdrop of proactive steps taken by the Chinese authorities to internationalize renminbi in the post-crisis period.     

The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options

Stocks with large increases in call (put) implied volatilities over the previous month tend to have high (low) future returns. Sorting stocks ranked into decile portfolios by past call implied volatilities produces spreads in average returns of approximately 1% per month, and the return differences persist up to six months. The cross section of stock returns also predicts option implied volatilities, with stocks with high past returns tending to have call and put option contracts that exhibit increases in implied volatility over the next month, but with decreasing realized volatility. These predictability patterns are consistent with rational models of informed trading.     

Attitudinal Asymmetries and the Lender-Borrower Relationship: Survey Results on Farm Lending in Shandong,China

This paper addresses the problem of social interactions and the lender-borrower relationship by measuring the disconnect between borrowers and lenders across a wide range of lending-related attributes. The degree by which lenders and borrowers connect disconnect depends on whether lenders’ and borrowers’ perceptions across these attributes are symmetric or asymmetric. We compare field survey results from 120 loan officers at Rural Credit Cooperatives (RCCs) in China’s coastal Shandong province, and pair them with an existing survey on identical questions to 394 farm households in the same region. Pairing lenders’ perception towards borrowers regarding RCC microcredit lending mechanism, against borrowers’ perception towards lenders and how themselves were perceived by lenders in the same regards, we observe on many dimensions a disconnect between them in the context of lenders’ “care” towards borrowers, loan rejection, memberships of RCC and group guarantee, lending concerns, cost of borrowing, reasons for default, credit rationing, and lending preferences. This research provides financial institutions with outreach mechanisms to borrowers, while also training lenders to borrowers’ sensitivities.     

Corporate cash holdings and political connections

We examine the relation between corporate liquidity and political connections measured via lobbying expenditures. This is an interesting question as many of the motives for holding cash should be diminished by political connections. Results indicate a significant and inverse relation between cash levels and lobby expenses and that the marginal value of cash decreases with lobbying. Taken together, these findings suggest firms react optimally to the reduced benefits of cash linked to political connections and that the market recognizes the weakened benefits of cash. Overall, our research shows another way political connections can shape corporate policy.     

Unconditional distributions obtained from conditional specification models with applications in risk theory

Bivariate distributions, specified in terms of their conditional distributions, provide a powerful tool to obtain flexible distributions. These distributions play an important role in specifying the conjugate prior in certain multi-parameter Bayesian settings. In this paper, the conditional specification technique is applied to look for more flexible distributions than the traditional ones used in the actuarial literature, as the Poisson, negative binomial and others. The new specification draws inferences about parameters of interest in problems appearing in actuarial statistics. Two unconditional (discrete) distributions obtained are studied and used in the collective risk model to compute the right-tail probability of the aggregate claim size distribution. Comparisons with the compound Poisson and compound negative binomial are made.     

The effect of rankings on honesty in budget reporting

We conduct an experiment to investigate the effect of rankings, which are pervasive in practice, on the honesty of managers’ budget reports, which is important for sound decision making in organizations. Participants in our experiment are ranked in one of four ways: (1) firm profit, (2) own compensation, (3) both firm profit and own compensation, and (4) randomly, which serves as our baseline condition. None of the rankings affect participants’ remuneration. Compared to our baseline (random rankings) setting, where participants indeed exhibit honesty concerns, we find that rankings based on firm profit significantly increase honesty and that rankings based on own compensation significantly decrease honesty. Participants who received both rankings were significantly more honest than participants in the own compensation rankings condition. We did not, however, find significant differences in honesty between the both rankings and firm profit rankings conditions. As such, participants in the both rankings condition seemed to focus more on the firm profit metric than on the financially congruent own compensation metric. We also find that our results are stable across periods, suggesting that the effects of rankings neither increased nor dissipated over time. We discuss the contributions of our study and concomitant findings to accounting research and practice.