ESTIMATING SOURCES OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF VAR METHODS

Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and revenues.     

Gender differences in formal credit approaches: rural households in Vietnam

In Vietnam, women have poorer access to formal credit than men. This article determines the extent to which borrowing constraints restrict women’s access to formal credit and identifies the socioeconomic characteristics that determine formal credit discrimination. The study used secondary data from the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) published in 2013–14, and analysis was undertaken by econometric approaches such as logistic and multiple linear regression models and propensity score matching methods. The results show that among those participants who successfully obtained credit, approximately 85 per cent of women obtained less credit than men; and the amount of credit that women obtained was also less (on average, approximately 1.8 per cent less). Gender, number of years of schooling, marital status, participation in agricultural activities, off‐farm employment, and ownership of agricultural land for a male‐headed household positively influenced discrimination in obtaining credit and the amount of credit obtained. Moreover, the propensity score matching results found that the average increase in the credit obtained by males was 220,000 Vietnamese Dong (VND) and this is mainly due to discrimination in favour of men. The results suggest that policy action is needed to avoid discrimination in credit disbursement on the basis of gender.     

Mills,cranes, and the great divergence: the use of immovable capital goods in western Europe and the Middle East,ninth to sixteenth centuries

This article contributes to the ongoing debate on the causes of the great divergence by comparing the use of expensive labour‐saving capital goods—water‐mills, windmills, and cranes—in medieval western Europe and the Middle East. Using novel ways of measuring, we find that whereas the use of these goods increased in Europe, in the Middle East their prevalence decreased, or they were not used at all. We investigate several possible explanations and reject most of them, including religion, geography, technological knowledge, and disparities in wages and cost of capital. Our analysis shows that differences in lordship systems and the security of property rights best explain the patterns found.     

Surface Coal Mining and Human Health: Evidence from West Virginia

This article presents the first panel-data evidence of a human health externality from the air pollution generated by surface coal mining. In West Virginia, a standard deviation increase in a county's exposure to surface coal mining is associated with 9.85 more asthma hospitalizations per 100,000 residents in a given quarter. Interpreted causally, this suggests over $11 million in hospitalization costs over the 6-year study period. The study builds on earlier cross-sectional research by controlling for unobserved county-level heterogeneity, and by defining more accurate measures of exposure. Both methods are shown to reduce the bias associated with earlier estimates of coal mining's effect on health. Young and elderly women demonstrate the largest sensitivities to surface mining. Falsification tests reveal that neither hernias nor bone fractures demonstrate any relationship with surface mining activity.     

Structural changes in U.S. agriculture: Implications for African American farmers

Structural changes in U.S. agriculture, influenced by technological and institutional forces, have altered the economic and social characteristics of rural America, especially that segment of rural America populated by farmers and their families. Changes in the structure of agriculture have greater implications for small scale farmers, many of whom are African American, in that strategic options for their farm-firms are constrained to: increasing their farm size, exiting farming, and obtaining off-farm employment to survive. This article presents a rationale for public support of limited resource farmers, identifies structural trends in U.S. agriculture and their impacts on African American farmers, discusses economic problems unique to these farmers, and recommends needs for specific public policies and development programs.     

Savings,pension rights and taxation

Summary The voluntary saving rate has declined in The Netherlands over the last thirty years. In this paper the increasing share of transfer income in total income, with a high propensity to consume, and the increase in collective pension schemes are simultaneously used to explain this development. Furthermore, the influence of taxes is modelled. The planning horizon of the representative consumer is treated as a parameter to be estimated. The planning horizon obtained (about 4.5 years) appears to be short compared to expected residual lifetime, implying rather small interest elasticities. The estimation results indicate that, in case the obligatory pension schemes are diminished, the representative consumer offsets the loss in pension benefits for 75 per cent by voluntary, additional accumulation of nonhuman wealth in the long run. The working of the model is illustrated by simulation experiments.I wish to thank two anonymous referees, Prof. J. Pen, G.M.M. Gelauff, J.J. Graafland, W. Vossers and other colleagues of the CPB for their helpful comments.     

Foreign direct investment in OECD countries: a special focus in the case of Greece

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is considered as an important instrument for economic development all over the world. The aim of this paper is to examine the FDI inflows determinants for 24 OECD countries. To this end we employ annual data from 1980 to 2012 for a series of potential FDI determinants that have been identified as the most important by the relevant literature. Our empirical strategy employs both the standard fixed effects panel as well as a dynamic panel approach. The empirical findings highlight the importance of market size, trade openness, unit labor cost, schooling, taxation, gross capital formation, institutional variables, and ROA/ROE as significant FDI determinants. In the case of the dynamic panel model those FDI inflows determinants are not uniform for all country groups. Additionally, the results indicate that corporate tax rates clearly affect FDI attractiveness. This finding is robust when testing different countries subgroups. The present study has important policy implications indicating the factors that host economies should place emphasis on in order to attract FDI inflows. Policy makers should not only pay attention to the corporate tax rate level but they should also design a simple, stable and transparent taxation system that minimizes the relevant business risk.