EXTREME VALUE AT RISK: A SCENARIO FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

This paper uses the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to model the extreme losses that are likely to occur during market crashes, in the case of an investor who has long positions in stocks and currencies. The null hypothesis – which tests for normality of asset returns – is rejected due to asymmetry of these returns. We assume that the asymmetric behaviour and volatility of the returns are captured by the shape and scale parameters, respectively, of a GEV distribution. The data set includes stock indices for the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and South Africa, and the South African rand exchange rates against the US dollar observed from 3 January 2005 to 30 December 2009. In addition, we divide this sample period into two periods: the pre‐crisis period, from 3 January 2005 to 31 December 2007 and the crisis period, from 1 January 2008 to 30 December 2009. We compared the estimates of value at risk (VaR) using an extreme value theory (EVT) model, with the estimates derived from the traditional variance–covariance method and found that during the crisis the 99% extreme VaR estimates are more reliable as they lie within the Basel II green zone. These results suggest that, at higher quintiles, the VaR estimates based on EVT are reliable and more accurate than estimates from the traditional method.     

Investor behaviour in a nascent capital market: Scottish bank shareholders in the nineteenth century

This article uses the records of nineteenth‐century Scottish banks in an attempt to understand investor behaviour in the early British capital market. It presents four main findings, some of which do not conform to the basic assumptions of standard asset pricing theories. First, in an era when efficient portfolio diversification was not possible, the intrinsic risk of an equity security was an important input into investor decision‐making. Second, our evidence suggests that businesspeople initially regarded bank stock as a consumption good, as being a stockholder gave them privileged access to bank finance. When bank lending practices changed in the middle of the century, this access‐to‐credit advantage associated with owning bank stock largely disappeared. Third, investors typically exhibited a bias towards banks that conducted business in the areas where they resided. Fourth, a sizeable proportion of investors were stockholders in more than one bank.     

Substitutes for legal protection: corporate governance and dividends in Victorian Britain1

Companies in Victorian Britain operated in a laissez‐faire legal environment from the perspective of outside investors, implying that such investors were not protected by the legal system. This article seeks to identify the alternative mechanisms that outside shareholders used to protect themselves by examining the dividend policy and governance of over 800 publicly traded companies at the beginning of the 1880s. We assess the importance of these mechanisms by estimating their impact on Tobin's Q. Our evidence suggests that dividends and well‐structured and incentivized boards of directors may have played a role in protecting the interests of outside investors.     

Explaining Financial Management Behavior for Koreans Living in the United States

Using a cross‐cultural conceptualization with a targeted sample of Americans and Koreans, it was noted that Koreans exhibited more responsible financial management behavior than Americans after controlling for locus of control, financial knowledge, and income interactions. Overall, financial knowledge was positively related to responsible financial behavior. No direct effects on financial management behavior were noted for locus of control or household income. Locus of control was found to mediate the effect of financial knowledge on financial behavior for Koreans. Being Korean did moderate between financial knowledge and financial behavior.     

What Is Best for Workers? The Implications of Workplace and Human Resource Management Practices Revisited

Drawing on a 2003–2004 random household telephone survey of 750 Canadian workers, I explore the implications of work and human resource (HR) practices for six aspects of the quality of working life. I find “traditional” HR practices, associated with the bureaucratic model predominant after World War II and with union representation, to have strong positive implications for workers. Participative workplace practices also have strong positive implications, although these are largely limited to information sharing in the union sector. The actual organization of work (e.g., teams), contingent pay, and “new” HR practices, associated with the “new” HRM of the 1980s, all make little difference. Comparison of these findings with those from a comparable 1998 survey of 508 Canadian workers and a parallel 2003 survey of 450 English workers suggest, however, that the implications of work and HR practices may be historically and institutionally contingent and thus should be interpreted using a historical/institutional perspective.     

APPLYING A GENETIC ALGORITHM TO INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFICATION OF EQUITY PORTFOLIOS: A SOUTH AFRICAN INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE

This paper uses the genetic algorithm (GA) approach to generate a portfolio optimisation scenario of a South African investor who seeks to maximise return from investing in S&P500, FTSE100, NASDAQ, DOWJONES, CAC40 and the DAX from January 1, 2005, to January 31, 2008, but facing exchange rate risk. The GA searches for the optimal solution in the entire set of financial constraints without looking for partial derivatives of the utility function. Whereas most financial problems require a non‐linear and time‐varying model, the GA, with its survival principle of offspring chromosomes, is better suited to this type of problem than local optimisation methods. The performance of the GA is compared with two non‐linear models, namely the quadratic mean‐variance (QMV), which maximises the portfolio mean‐variance, and the quadratic variance minimisation (QVM), which minimises the portfolio variance. The results show that neither the QMV nor the QVM takes into account the domestic investors' risk attitude towards investing in foreign equities and therefore does not provide any international diversification benefits. In addition, the bootstrapping scenario of 10,000 simulations reveals that neither the QMV nor the QVM outperforms the GA in terms of Sharpe ratio and flexibility in dealing with investors' risk attitude towards investing in foreign equities denominated in foreign currencies.