EARLY CORRECTIVE ACTION FOR TROUBLED BANKS

This paper presents data concerning the performance of the U.S. commercial bank supervisory system and identifies a number of needed improvements in areas including: (i) rules governing bank loss recognition, (ii) supervisory response to excessive loan concentrations and poor underwriting standards, (Hi) rules governing dividend payments by troubled banks, and (iv) the early closure or resolution of troubled banks.     

Capital Budgeting for Advertising Expenditures: A Contingent Claims Approach

Advertising expenditures constitute a big part of the budgets of firms. Through their impact on demand and costs, advertising activities affect the firm's pricing and output decisions as well as the firm's market value. Yet, there is no analytical framework by which these effects can be measured. This paper develops a cash flow model for a product where the advertising budget is divided between a strategic component designed to increase expected demand and a contingent component allocated to be used only if sales fall short of capacity. Contingent claims techniques are employed to evaluate the present value of the cash flows and to provide a framework for determining the size of the advertising budget, and the pricing and production strategies that maximize the firm's value. The impact of the price sensitivity, volatility, and growth rate of demand on the size of the advertising budget is also analyzed.     

BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION AND BIOTECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AGREEMENTS

This paper assesses the role of Biotechnology Development Agreements (BDAs) in creating incentives to conserve biodiversity. A major cause of species loss is the conversion of tropical forests to crop and pasture land. Biodiversity conservation, therefore, fundamentally depends on the economics of agricultural land use in developing countries. BDAs can play only a limited role in a comprehensive strategy to increase incentives for biodiversity conservation. Policymakers must examine biodiversity policies in the broader context of land tenure, rural poverty, and agricultural development in tropical countries .     

In Old Chicago: Simons,Friedman, and the Development of Monetary‐Policy Rules

This paper examines the different policy rules proposed by Henry Simons, who, beginning in the mid‐1930s, advocated a price‐level stabilization rule, and by Milton Friedman, who, beginning in the late‐1950s, advocated a rule that targeted a constant growth rate of the money supply. Although both rules shared the objective of eliminating the policy uncertainty emanating from discretion, they differed because of the different views of Simons and Friedman about the stability of secular relationships. Simons’ rule relates to modern rules that emphasize the pursuit of price stability as representing optimal monetary policy.     

Maturity Intermediation and Intertemporal Lending Policies of Financial Intermediaries

This paper considers the maturity intermediation and intertemporal lending decisions of risk-averse financial intermediaries. In particular, the maturity mismatch problem and the fixed-versus-variable-rate lending decision are modeled when the major source of risk involves uncertain future interest rates. The results imply that the strategy of matching the maturity of assets and liabilities is not generally optimal or even minimum risk. This is due primarily to the “built-in” hedge that the intermediary has as a result of rolling over short-term loans while continuing to finance long-term loans. Intertemporal dependencies between loan demand and costs (or both) also have an effect on the optimal degree of maturity mismatching and provide one rationale for making loans at rates below current marginal cost.     

Mutual Fund Trading Pressure: Firm‐Level Stock Price Impact and Timing of SEOs

We use price pressure resulting from purchases by mutual funds with large capital inflows to identify overvalued equity. This is a relatively exogenous overvaluation indicator as it is associated with who is buying—buyers with excess liquidity—rather than what is being purchased. We document substantial stock price impact associated with purchases by high‐inflow mutual funds, and find the probability of a seasoned equity offering (SEO), insider sales, and the probability of a stock‐based acquisition increase significantly in the four quarters following the mutual fund buying pressure. These results provide new evidence that firm managers are able to identify and exploit overvalued equity.     

Bank Forward Lending in Alternative Funding Environments

This paper examines the effects of loan commitments on bank lending behavior in both deposit-funding and liability management environments. Assuming that the bank lends exclusively under commitments and that the number of commitments exercised is uncertain, the bank must choose its supply of commitments. Given this choice, the bank becomes a passive lender to commitment holders. Our focus on forward credit markets sheds new light on the private bankers' assertion that they do not directly determine their level of lending, but merely “accommodate” the credit needs of their customers. Similarly, the central banker's claimed inability to control monetary aggregates in the short-run becomes understandable in a new context. It is shown that the advent of liability management will reduce the volume of loan commitments and the expected size of the bank and of the banking system. It is also shown that increased uncertainty regarding borrower takedown behavior diminishes the volume of commitments, expected bank and banking system size.