Winners or Losers? The Effects of Banking Consolidation on Corporate Borrowers

We estimate the impact of bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on outstanding credit, credit lines, and the sensitivity of investment to cash flow using a large sample of Italian corporate borrowers. We distinguish between firms that experienced relationship termination as a consequence of bank M&As and those that did not. Our findings are consistent with bank M&As having an adverse effect on credit, particularly when the M&A is followed by relationship termination. The effect persists 3 years and then is absorbed, suggesting that firms are able to compensate for the negative shock.     

Financial Structure,Acquisition Opportunities,and Firm Locations

This paper investigates the relation between firms' locations and their corporate finance decisions. We develop a model where being located within an industry cluster increases opportunities to make acquisitions, and to facilitate those acquisitions, firms within clusters maintain more financial slack. Consistent with our model we find that firms located within industry clusters make more acquisitions, and have lower debt ratios and larger cash balances than their industry peers located outside clusters. We also document that firms in high‐tech cities and growing cities maintain more financial slack. Overall, the evidence suggests that growth opportunities influence firms' financial decisions.     

The Shadow Margins of Labor Market Slack

We use a mix of new and existing data to develop the Aggregate Hours Gap (AHG), a novel measure of labor market underutilization. Our measure differentiates individuals by detailed categories of labor market participation and uses data on their desired work hours as a measure of their potential labor supply. We show that desired hours vary widely by demographics and detailed labor force status, and that the gap between desired and actual work hours is strongly positively correlated with reported search effort. The AHG suggests a more sluggish labor market recovery since the Great Recession than either the official unemployment rate or alternative measures of labor market underutilization. Modest amounts of underutilization among the part-time employed and a substantial degree of underutilization among those out of the labor force account for the disparity. The AHG also does well in accounting for wage movements over our sample period.     

Optimal Simple Monetary and Fiscal Rules under Limited Asset Market Participation

The combination of limited asset market participation and consumption habits generates indeterminacy for empirically plausible calibrations of a business cycle model characterized by price and nominal wage rigidities. Equilibrium determinacy is restored by demand management policies based on simple fiscal rules. In this regard, fiscal control of nominal income growth is particularly effective. In addition the complementarity between the Taylor rule and the fiscal feedback on nominal income growth produces relatively large welfare gains, limiting both aggregate and intragroup volatilities.     

Transparency in the Financial System: Rollover Risk and Crises

We present a theory of optimal transparency when banks are exposed to rollover risk. Disclosing bank‐specific information enhances the stability of the financial system during crises, but has a destabilizing effect in normal economic times. Thus, the regulator optimally increases transparency during crises. Under this policy, however, information disclosure signals a deterioration of economic fundamentals, which gives the regulator ex post incentives to withhold information. This commitment problem precludes a disclosure policy that provides ex ante optimal insurance against aggregate shocks, and can result in excess opacity that increases the likelihood of a systemic crisis.     

Do Credit Markets Respond to Macroeconomic Shocks? The Case for Reverse Causality

The response of corporate bond credit spreads to three exogenous macro shocks—oil supply, investment-specific technology, and government spending—is large, significant, and a mirror image of macroeconomic activity. This countercyclicality is driven largely by credit risk premia and translates into significant return predictability. Equity risk premia exhibit similar responses, providing external validity. Information rigidities and leverage play a key role in the transmission of the shocks. Since causal evidence linking macro shocks to credit markets is scarce and recent work highlights the real effects of credit fluctuations, our findings contribute to understanding the joint dynamics of credit markets and the macroeconomy.