Market volatility and the dynamic hedging of multi-commodity price risk

Commodity cash and futures prices experienced a severe boom-and-bust cycle between 2006 and 2009. Increases in commodity price volatility have raised concerns about the usefulness of commodity futures and options as risk management tools. Dynamic hedging strategies have the potential to improve risk management when conditional (co)variances depart significantly from their unconditional, long-run counterparts and may be useful to decision-makers despite their greater complexity and higher transaction costs. We propose a Nonparametric Copula-based Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (NPC-GARCH) approach to estimate time-varying hedge ratios, and evaluate the benefits of dynamic hedging during four sub-periods between 2000 and 2011 using a stylized Texas cattle feedlot management problem. The NPC-GARCH approach allows for a flexible, nonlinear and asymmetric dependence structure between cash and futures prices for different commodities. We find that NPC-GARCH dynamic hedging performs better than either static, GARCH-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) or GARCH-Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BEKK) hedging in terms of lower tail risk (expected shortfall), but that there is no significant difference between hedging approaches in terms of portfolio variance reduction.     

The role of permanent and transitory components in the fluctuations of Latin–American real exchange rates

Following the approach suggested by Engel and Kim (1999 Engel, C. 1999. Accounting for U.S. real exchange rates changes. Journal of Political Economy, 107: 507–38. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), we estimate the permanent and transitory components of the real exchange rates in four Latin–American countries for the period 1957:01 to 2002:04. Results suggest that transitory component is the driving force of the real exchange rates in Argentina and Mexico. A principal role of the permanent component is observed in the real exchange rates of Brazil and Chile. Estimates probabilities of the high-variance regime allow to identify the principal events happened in these countries. This information is closely related to nominal shocks and therefore, it explains the significant role of this component in these countries.     

What circumstances lead a government to promote brain drain?

This paper aims to complement the existing theoretical brain drain literature, focusing on the interaction between education, skilled emigration and government intervention in a small open economy. This article first characterises different emigration patterns that may arise in equilibrium, then seeks the conditions that lead a government to promote brain-drain. The model shows that the government may promote skilled emigration among workers with intermediate skills even though the resulting brain drain decreases per capita income. Emigrants remittances outweigh the income they would produce if they did not emigrate. Therefore, the government makes less severe the fall in per capita income that follows the brain drain by encouraging emigration among those skilled workers who are more productive abroad.     

Mergers and Acquisitions and Market Volatility of Brazilian Banking Stocks: An Application of GARCH Models

The main objective of this research was to investigate the impacts caused by announcements of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on the volatility of the returns of Brazilian bank stocks from 1994 to 2015. In order to achieve the proposed objective, this study applied Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) class models to the series to model their volatility. Our results confirmed the impact of the announcement of M&As on volatility. They suggest that M&A announcements are expected to cause a negative reaction if related to an expansion or a deal involving a less-well known bank, and a positive reaction if it involves well-known bank with good reputation—a higher level of confidence and a lower level of information asymmetry for investors.     

Gaps between managers' and employees' perceptions of work–life balance

Research on work–life balance (WLB) practices has increased in recent years. Academics affirm that the implementation of WLB practices helps to achieve better organizational results and improve employee outcomes such as higher satisfaction and commitment, and reduce turnover intentions. However, some authors have argued that there are differences between the availability of WLB practices in companies and employees' perceptions of access to such practices. The literature on the differences in perceptions between managers and employees in relation to WLB and its effects is sparse. Using two samples of 229 managers and 511 employees from the same firms, we in this paper contribute to our knowledge of the existence of the perception gaps between managers and employees and their influence on the take-up of WLB. Implications for academics and practitioners are discussed.     

Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context

We investigate the impact of transport innovations on the productivity of urban locations in 1890–1936 Berlin, Germany. We find an increase in land value of up to 2.5% per 100 m decline in distance to urban railway station.     

Foreign informational lobbying can enhance tourism: Evidence from the Caribbean

There exist legal channels for informational lobbying of US policymakers by foreign principals. Foreign governments and private sector principals frequently and intensively use this institutional channel to lobby on trade and tourism issues. This paper empirically studies whether such lobbying effectively achieves its goal of trade promotion in the context of Caribbean tourism, and suggests the potential for using foreign lobbying as a vehicle for development. Panel data are used to explore and quantify the association between foreign lobbying by Caribbean principals and US tourist arrivals to Caribbean destinations. A variety of sensitivity analyses support the finding of a strong association. The policy implications are obvious and potentially important for developing countries.     

Congenital learning in the Spanish telecommunication industry

Knowledge provided by a firm's founder(s) is one of the most important success factors for SMEs. This paper aims to identify the impact of the founder's knowledge on business performance in today's organization. It is with this in mind that we propose a specialized organizational learning process, which we refer to as the congenital learning process, by which the firm transforms the tacit and explicit knowledge of the founder into knowledge which is available to the firm and its members. The research model and hypothesized relationships are empirically tested using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach, validated by factor analysis of 130 SMEs in the Spanish telecommunications sector. Two structural equation models, derived from the literature, have been used, resulting in the conclusion that organizational performance is positively affected by the transfer and transformation of knowledge as long as the organization has implemented processes that lead to the creation of what we refer to as an open organizational context.     

Hysteresis and persistent long-term unemployment: the American Beveridge Curve of the Great Depression and World War II

Long-term unemployment plagued the American economy of the Great Depression. The stigma of a long unemployment spell made reentering employment difficult even during the brisk economic recovery, which lead to unemployment hysteresis and persistently high joblessness. Unemployment figures disaggregated by duration confirm the importance of hysteresis for the Great Depression, as the long-term unemployed were less likely to return to gainful employment until the war. Using the theoretical framework of the Beveridge Curve, I find that hysteresis was a significant problem during the 1930s, but that the essentially unlimited labor demand during the World War II provided jobs even to the long-term unemployed. As a result, labor market conditions in the 1950s resembled those of the 1920s prior to the Depression and so the labor market scars of the Great Depression were healed.     

Brexit: A Hard-but-Smart Strategy and Its Consequences

Intereconomics - Would the United Kingdom really apply high EU external tariffs in the case of a hard Brexit and carry out extensive physical checks at their border? Recent developments in London...