外资凶猛增兵中国

虽然对中国经济有减速预期，但考虑到其速度仍将是美国的三倍，美国公司毅然决定加码中国。     

Regime switching based portfolio selection for pension funds

This paper shows how a mean variance criterion can be applied to a multi period setting in order to obtain efficient portfolios in an asset and liability context. The optimization model allows for rebalancing activities, transaction costs, stochastic volatilities for both assets and liabilities. Furthermore, a general framework for the projection of pension fund liabilities as well as for the generation of asset returns is given. In a further step the dynamics of the liability maturity structure is modeled as customized index, whose volatility and correlation with asset returns become integral components of the applied regime switching approach. The numerical results illustrate the diversification of the assets and its risk return pattern in dependency of the liability dynamics.     

David Mitch, John Brown, and Marco H. D. van Leeuwen, eds. Origins of the Modern Career. Burlington, Vt.: Ashgate, 2004. xiii + 342 pp. ISBN 0-7546-3496-5, $99.95.

Here is a sturdy volume that presents the theory, methods, andevidence involving employment patterns that constitute the moderncareer. This information is especially important to scholarsof labor studies who are interested in making historical comparisonsacross disciplinary frameworks. While the audience is likelyto be small, the book’s concerns traverse central juncturesin social history. For an edited volume the essays presented here are unusuallycogent, especially given the range of topics.     

The Rise of Experimentalism in German Collective Bargaining

This paper addresses the debate on union strategies by analysing industrial relations change in three of Germany's most internationalized sectors: chemicals, metalworking and construction. It characterizes two logics of change in German industrial relations: a battlefield logic and an experimentalist logic. It demonstrates historical trends towards centralization of wage bargaining in each sector before looking at recent pressures for decentralization and flexibility. In chemi‐cals, the social partners control decentralization. In metalworking increasing flexibility is characterized by a mismatch between the national‐level union and the district‐level employers. Finally, the construction union seeks to replace the centralized bargaining system with a state minimum wage.     

Unnatural Extinction: The Rise and Fall of the Independent Local Union

This article analyzes what happened to independent local unions (ILUs), also known as company unions, since 1935. After providing a statistical analysis of ILU membership since 1935, the article looks at the factors that shaped membership trends: changes in labor law, the characteristics of ILUs, worker attitudes toward ILUs, and employers' industrial relations policies. New evidence is presented that suggests that even those employers who still favored ILUs in the 1950s were orienting them away from collective bargaining and toward the "new nonunion model" of the 1960s and 1970s.     

A subjective assessment of approximate probabilities with a portfolio application

This paper extends the assessment of approximate probabilities in two important directions. The first is to investigate some mathematical relations between the probability ranges and derives the most unbiased probability for the case when the limits are subjectively defined. The second is to suggest a simple method to determine the optimal solution which represents the optimal portfolio proportions of securities that possess the minimum risk measured by the maximum entropy measure. The paper considers the derivation of portfolio modeling under a fuzzy situation using probability theory, and provides various other (non-probabilistic) scenarios with their utility in risk modeling. A simple method for identification of mean-entropic frontier is proposed. Then, a comparison of mean-variance procedure with the discrete mean-entropic method is implemented by an example.     

Weathering the Storm: The Impact of the East Asian Crisis on Farm Households in Indonesia and Thailand

This article assesses the impact of the East Asian financialcrisis on farm households in two of the region's most affectedcountries. Indonesia and Thailand, using detailed household-levelsurvey data collected before and after the crisis began. Althoughthe nature of the shocks in the two countries were similar,the impact on farmers' income (particularly on distribution)was quite different. In Thailand, poor farmers bore the bruntof the crisis, in part because of their greater reliance onthe urban economy, than did poor farmers in Indonesia. Urban-rurallinks are much weaker in Indonesia. Farmers in both countries,particularly those specializing in export crops, benefited fromthe currency devaluation. Although there is some evidence thatthe productivity of the smallest landholders declined over theperiod in question, it is difficult to attribute this directlyto the financial crisis. At least in Thailand, a rural creditcrunch does not seem to have materialized.      

A Duration Model For Defaultable Bonds

I extend recent theoretical work on duration and derive an improved model for the risk‐adjusted duration of corporate bonds. My ex‐ante risk‐adjusted duration is the sum of the bond's Fisher‐Weil duration and the duration of the potential expected delay in recovery caused by the default option. My main conclusion is that failing to adjust duration for default is costly for high‐yield bonds, especially those with a shorter time to maturity. For investment‐grade bonds, this cost is trivial for all maturities.