The incremental value of a futures hedge using realized volatility

A number of prior studies have developed a variety of multivariate volatility models to describe the joint distribution of spot and futures, and have applied the results to form the optimal futures hedge. In this study, the authors propose a new class of multivariate volatility models encompassing realized volatility (RV) estimates to estimate the risk‐minimizing hedge ratio, and compare the hedging performance of the proposed models with those generated by return‐based models. In an out‐of‐sample context with a daily rebalancing approach, based on an extensive set of statistical and economic performance measures, the empirical results show that improvement can be substantial when switching from daily to intraday. This essentially comes from the advantage that the intraday‐based RV potentially can provide more accurate daily covariance matrix estimates than RV utilizing daily prices. Finally, this study also analyzes the effect of hedge horizon on hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness for both the in‐sample and the out‐of‐sample data. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:874–896, 2010     

治理型公司及其发展前景

传统的公司治理模式强调了权力制衡,目标是为了强化对公司内部人的控制和监督,而治理型公司模式则认为公司治理的核心不在干监督内部人而在于改善决策,目标是降低发生错误的可能性和加快纠正错误的速度。管理型公司反映了人性和组织行为的弱点,公司内部人的错误除非演变为灾难,否则不会得到纠正。在我国现有国情下,治理型公司的优势和前景非常明显,因此,它对我国公司治理改革具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

从文化要素的设计视角谈 旅行社专线产品同质化现象的解决之道

此文从文化要素的角度重新审视了旅行社专线产品,在分析了旅行社专线产品的同质化现状和文化要素的内涵后,明确了注入文化要素在旅行社专线产品设计中的重要性,并面向实践针对性地提出了产品设计中文化要素的选择策略。     

Stickiness of Rental Rates and Developers’ Option Exercise Strategies

In this study we incorporate sticky rents into a real options model to rationalize the widely documented overbuilding puzzle in real estate markets. Given the assumption that developers’ objective function is to maximize total revenue by selecting an optimal occupancy level, our model provides a better explanation of the phenomena we observed in the real world than the traditional market-clearance based real options models. We also show that developers’ exercise strategies can be affected by the size and the type of property markets. In other words, developers’ exercise strategies could differ among markets and under different conditions. Submitted to Cambridge—Maastricht 2005 Symposium.     

Border tax adjustments: Do they distort trade?

A familiar proposition asserting the trade-neutrality of uniform, indirect taxes under both the origin and destination principles is re-examined in the context of a world with trade in intermediate goods. A uniform, general sales tax is shown to be trade-neutral under the destination principle, but trade-distorting under the origin principle. A ‘stage of processing’ value added tax is nondistorting under either border tax adjustment principle. The discussion is then related to a proposed change in GATT rules that would require origin principle administration of the European value added tax.     

Authority and communication in the laboratory

We report findings from experiments on two delegation–communication games. An uninformed principal chooses whether to fully delegate her decision-making authority to an informed agent or to retain the authority and communicate with the agent via cheap talk to obtain decision-relevant information. In the game in which the delegation outcome is payoff-dominated by both the truthful and the babbling communication outcomes, we find that principal-subjects almost always retain their authority and agent-subjects communicate truthfully. Significantly more choices of delegation than of communication are observed in another game in which the delegation outcome payoff-dominates the unique babbling communication outcome; yet there is a non-negligible fraction of principal-subjects who holds on to their authority and agent-subjects who transmits some information. A level-k analysis of the game indicates that a principal-subject “under-delegates” due to the belief that her less-than-fully-strategic opponent will provide information; such belief is in turn consistent with the actual play.     

Imports as a cause of injury: The case of the U.S. steel industry

This paper develops a method for assessing whether or not imports have been the most significant cause of injury to a U.S. industry. Such a determination is required under the 'escape clause' provisions (Section 201) of the Trade Act of 1974. The method is applied to the case of the U.S. steel industry, which recently petitioned the I.T.C. for import relief. We find that relief is not warranted if the relevant period is taken to be 1976–1983, as specified in the industry's petition. The results are less clear for the shorter period from 1979 to 1983.     

The role of domestic demand in the economic growth of Malaysia: a cointegration analysis

For the past four decades (1961-2000), the Malaysian economy grew at an impressive average rate of 6.8% per annum. The rapid growth has been attributed, in part, to the tremendous success in the export-oriented industrialization policy. Several empirical studies on export-led growth for Malaysia have, however, led to inconclusive and mixed results. This may be due to the exclusion of domestic demand in the bivariate or multivariate models used in the studies. This study re-examines the role of domestic demand in economic growth in Malaysia. Using a three-variable cointegration analysis, the study shows that there exist short run bilateral causalities among the three variables, which implies that both the export-led growth and domestic demand-generated growth hypotheses are at least valid in the short run. On the other hand, the results are not supportive of the export-led growth hypothesis in the long run. Instead, the highly significant positive impact of domestic expenditure on economic growth implies that use of domestic demand as the catalyst for growth is appropriate.     

全面减免东盟关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.本文在Chingem模型的基础上,分析了2010年中国全面减免东盟原六国关税对中国宏观经济和产业的长期影响.在原模型的基础上,改进了宏观闭合条件.将原来作为剩余量处理的居民消费与居民收入联系起来,使经济增长会作用到居民消费,使模拟结果更加符合实际.研究表明全面减免对东盟的关税有利于我国经济的和谐发展;减少了经济增长对净出口的依赖;促进了进、出口商品结构的升级;促进了服务业的发展,但农业和制造业的一些部门会受到负面影响;制造业的就业会下降,服务业和农业的就业会上升.