Intuitive managerial thinking; the use of mental simulations in the industrial marketing context

In this paper, we introduce empirical evidence showing how mental simulation was used as a heuristic strategy in an industrial network context. The mental network simulations observed are consistent with the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model, according to which intuitive thinking allows managerial experience to be translated into focal network action, without resorting to a “rational” or comparative decision strategy. We identify the main business significance of mental network simulations in terms of their utility to clarify ambiguous or only partially known focal network situations, to develop coherent focal net plans and tactics, and to mentally preview how specific focal net tactics/strategies are likely to play out in reality. In short, mental network simulations were observed as being useful in generating focal net action through cognitively meeting the complex environmental challenges in dynamic focal net interaction between companies.     

UK Housing Market: Time Series Processes with Independent and Identically Distributed Residuals

The paper examines whether a univariate data generating process can be identified which explains the data by having residuals that are independent and identically distributed, as verified by the BDS test. The stationary first differenced natural log quarterly house price index is regressed, initially with a constant variance and then with a conditional variance. The only regression function that produces independent and identically distributed standardised residuals is a mean process based on a pure random walk format with Exponential GARCH in mean for the conditional variance. There is an indication of an asymmetric volatility feedback effect but higher frequency data is required to confirm this. There could be scope for forecasting the index but this is tempered by the reduction in the power of the BDS test if there is a non-linear conditional variance process.     

Asymmetric adjustment costs and the dynamics of housing supply

This paper examines aggregate dynamics on the supply side of the housing market. The representative firm's intertemporal profit maximisation problem is considered under asymmetric adjustment costs. The hypothesis of asymmetric adjustment costs is also examined empirically using Irish data. Several interesting insights into the dynamics of housing supply are uncovered. These include support for the proposition that the adjustment costs of expanding housing output are greater than those associated with a contraction, evidence of threshold points beyond which adjustment starts to speed up and also the existence of a continuum of equilibria between these thresholds where no adjustment occurs at all.     

Modelling a Research Portfolio Using AHP: A Group Decision Process

The problem of choosing a research portfolio has been in the literature for many years. Suggested solutions have ranged from simple scoring models to complex mathematical resource allocation models, but the acceptance rate has been low. In this paper we present an application of a model based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process to a group decision situation. The results are encouraging, showing the positive nature of a model as a focal point in the process. They show that the interactive nature of the methodology encourages the development of subjective estimates and their subsequent discussion. An attempt to counter the problems of biasing has also been made. The methodology presented is seen to be easy to use and adaptable, and becomes an integrating mechanism for the group.     

Planning for electronic data interchange

There is an abundance of literature about the impact of the new electronic communications technologies and most of the authors attest to its value and theoretical benefits. Many organizations are working in this area and producing novel implementations, but for the general company there is little that is of help in planning for these systems. In order to overcome this deficiency, this article presents a detailed analysis of electronic data interchange (EDI) undertaken by a large number of U.S. companies. The results suggest a model of strategic implementation which illustrates how factors such as the nature of markets and distribution channels, organizational structure and process and buyer power influence the implementation of EDI with suppliers and customers. Five generic EDI strategies have been identified and the impact of market share and IT expertise on these are discussed. Finally, the authors give their views on some of the long–term issues and suggest some possible outcomes.