WORLD OUTLOOK

In the second quarter of 1980 recession spread from the United States to other OECD countries. We estimate that this process continued in the third quarter and forecast that it has a further six months to run. The latest US indicators suggest that some recovery may have taken place in the third quarter. We do not believe at this stage that any such recovery is currently sustainable. Our forecast of the world economy implies continuing US recession and some further drop in output in Europe and Japan.     

A quantitative approach to stakeholder interests

In an age when the role, behaviour and performance of the firm are under greater scrutiny than ever before, it is important to pursue quantitative empirical research in the area of social auditing. Using data relating to one particular company, the various inputs and outputs attributable to the firm's different stakeholders, (shareholders, employees, consumers and the community) are examined and corresponding rates of return calculated. Considerable methodological and data problems arise and consequently the results need careful interpretation.     

OR vice: Forecasting and classification techniques for narcotics interdiction

Counternarcotics interdiction efforts have traditionally relied on historically determined sorting criteria or “best guess” to find and classify suspected smuggling traffic. We present a more quantitative approach which incorporates customized database applications, graphics software and statistical modeling techniques to develop forecasting and classification models. Preliminary results show that statistical methodology can improve interdiction rates and reduce forecast error. The idea of predictive modeling is thus gaining support in the counterdrug community. The problem is divided into sea, air and land forecasting, only part of which will be addressed here. The maritime problem is solved using multiple regression in lieu of multivariate time series. This model predicts illegal boat counts by behavior and geographic region. We developed support software to present the forecasts and to automate the process of performing periodic model updates. During the period, the model was in use at. Coast Guard Headquarters. Because of deterrence provided by improved intervention, the vessel seizure rate declined from 1 every 36 hours to 1 every 6 months. Due in part to the success of the sea model, the maritime movement of marijuana has ceased to be a major threat. The air problem is more complex, and required us to locally design data collection and display software. Intelligence analysts are using a customized relational database application with a map overlay to perform visual pattern recognition of smuggling routes. We are solving the modeling portion of the air problem using multiple regression for regional forecasts of traffic density, and discriminant analysis to develop tactical models that classify “good guys” and “bad guys”. The air models are still under development, but we discuss some modeling considerations and preliminary results. The land problem is even more difficult, and data collection is still in progress.     

A comparison of parametric and non-parametric efficiency measures: The case of Norwegian ferries

The trunk road system in Norway has to be supplemented by a number of ferries due to the long coastline with numerous islands and fjords. Most of the ferries are run by private companies, but at a loss. The deficit are covered by the Ministry of Transport. The subsidies have risen rapidly in the last years and have focussed attention on whether the ferries are really run as efficiently as possible. To change the incentives to economize, a lump-sum payment is considered. To implement such a system, an initial assessment of reasonable input requirements is needed. The aim of this article is to provide such a yardstick by establishing a best practice frontier. Both a non-parametric and a parametric approach to a deterministic frontier are tried and differences of results discussed. Peculiarities due to choice of methods are revealed. The efficiency distributions are quite similar for the two methods except for scale efficiency, where the parametric method indicates substantial unrealized scale economies, while the non-parametric approach shows the largest and some small ferries to be scale efficient. The results indicate a substantial rationalization potential of about 30 percent in total.I am indebted to three referees for forcing me to improve significantly the quality of the study. Any remaining shortcomings are, of course, my responsibility.     

Maximum score estimation of the stochastic utility model of choice

This paper introduces a class of robust estimators of the parameters of a stochastic utility function. Existing maximum likelihood and regression estimation methods require the assumption of a particular distributional family for the random component of utility. In contrast, estimators of the ‘maximum score’ class require only weak distributional assumptions for consistency. Following presentation and proof of the basic consistency theorem, additional results are given. An algorithm for achieving maximum score estimates and some small sample Monte Carlo tests are also described.     

Involvement and opinion leadership in tourism

Nature-based tourism, science tourism, and ecotourism are some of the emerging and growing trends in special-interest tourism. This study utilized a southeastern sample of the United States who had an interest in travel and the environment. A modified Dillman total design method survey was used to collect the data. The study demonstrated that widely used concepts of marketing are applicable for nature-based tourism. Results indicate that highly involved nature-oriented travelers tend to be more receptive to information concerning the travel product or destination and spread that information willingly. Findings of this study suggest that opinion leaders take more trips and use slightly more information sources.     

A Critical Investigation of the Bargaining Behavior of Tourists: The Case of Hong Kong Open-Air Markets

Shopping has long been recognized as an indispensable tourist activity. Hong Kong's open-air markets, where a multitude of bargaining activities can be observed, ranked as the second most popular of the island territory's diverse range of attractions in 2008 in terms of tourist arrivals. To develop cutting-edge marketing strategies that promote tourists' enjoyment of their bargaining adventure and ultimately enhance the overall shopping experience, the study reported in this article was aimed at identifying the dimensions underlying tourists' perceptions of the importance of 18 bargaining motivators and 12 bargaining attitudes and types of bargaining behavior, respectively, and subsequently evaluating the predictability of these underlying dimensions on tourists' shopping contentment indicators (overall bargaining satisfaction, the likelihood of a subsequent visit, and the likelihood of recommending open-air markets to others). A non-probability quota sampling technique was used to survey 203 Asian and non-Asian tourists in Hong Kong. A multivariate approach encompassing factor analysis and multiple regression was employed: Factor analysis delineated four underlying dimensions of factors affecting bargaining intentions. “Value for money” was shown to be the factor rated most important to tourists' bargaining intention; similarly, two underlying dimensions of bargaining attitudes and behavior—“bargain for psychological well-being” and “bargaining intensity”—were identified. Multiple regression results indicated the statistical significance of “bargaining for psychological well-being” and “bargaining intensity” to the existence of positive relations between shopping contentment indicators.     

World Leisure and Recreation Association International Position Statement on Leisure Education and Youth at Risk

Researchers have noted the utility of the Investment Model in explaining the formation of loyalty. This study extends the Investment Model in a leisure service context by including two additional constructs of quality and value. Quality and value are proposed as antecedents of satisfaction, with their effects on loyalty mediated by satisfaction. Results from an online panel survey of American cruise passengers support these hypotheses. The study provides a model of loyalty building that may shed new insight on loyalty research.