Efficient Timing of Retirement

This study introduces a retirement decision into the classic Merton model. A familiar result is that you should retire if and when the marginal utility of another year's wages is equal to the disutility of work. A new result is that at the point of retirement your exposure to risky assets should not jump. Under power utility and constant time preference, the retirement timing problem has a closed form solution; the nine inputs to the formula in question give rise to nine comparative-static results on retirement timing. Further specialization of preferences, to log consumption utility and zero time preference, reduces the required number of inputs to four. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E21, G11, J26.     

A lorenz curve based index of income stratification

Conclusion This paper introduced a method of calculating the proportion, and its standardized index, of the GINI coefficient that is due to the overlapping of the incomes of different groups in a population. This Lorenz curvebased index measures the degree to which all groups, collectively, form different strata in a population as opposed to the degree to which an individual group forms a stratum in the population. It is useful for describing the degree of integration or segregation in a population as opposed to the degree of integration or segregation of a group within a population. The new index was applied to distributions of wage and salary income for individuals and family income for households. The results indicate that racial/ethnic income stratification is more marked among men than women.     

THERE'S MANY A SLIP…

There has to be a General Election at some time in the next eighteen months. It has long been clear that the economy will not be in the best of shape in time for the election and that the best the Conservatives can hope for is a significant reduction in inflation and interest rates together with modest output growth. Our October forecast suggested that this combination was feasible and that the government would be able to go to the country with base rates of 12 per cent, retail price inflation at half its present level and output growing at a rate of 2per cent after a relatively short and shallow recession. It may turn out that this is an overly optimistic central forecast and in this Forecast Release we examine some of the ways in which it could go wrong. In a worst possible scenario the government may have to face the electorate with the economy in recession, inflation high and interest rates still at or close to their present levels.     

IMPOVERISHING TECHNICAL AND PREFERENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS

Abstract.  Edgeworth showed that a free-trading country might be impoverished by its own technical improvements if they are confined to the export industry and if no good is inferior in consumption. More recently it has been shown that improvements confined to the country's import competing industry can never be impoverishing if, in that country, no commodity is inferior in consumption. However, in all available proofs of these propositions, it has been assumed that for each country there exists an autarkic equilibrium. It will be shown that, without that assumption, the second proposition must be severely qualified.     

The spa experience at Radium Hot Springs

This paper examines the spa experience at Radium Hot Springs from the earliest days to the present in an attempt to indicate similarities and differences between Canadian spas and those in the United States and Western Europe. Radium is examined for five time periods under the headings of environment, strategies and institutions, perceptions and attitudes, and technology. Western Canadian spas share many traits with those of the United States, especially the western states, but the emphasis on natural attractions and federal government involvement have caused them to differ from those in Western Europe.     

Integrating decomposition approaches for the analysis of temporal changes in economic structure: an application to Chicago's economy from 1980 to 2000

This paper presents an attempt to integrate two flow decomposition methods to analyse temporal changes in a region's economic structure. The two methods of structural analysis are push–pull decomposition analysis and structural Q-analysis. Push–pull analysis presents a quasi-optimization decomposition of a set of matrices with actual intersectoral economic flows into a weighted set of matrices, while structural Q-analysis provides a form in which the structure of these decomposed flows can be considered. The paper provides an expository application to Chicago's economic structure over the period of 1980 to 2000, to reveal a complementary perspective of hollowing-out the production process in the Chicago economy that was identified in previous studies.     

Planning for housing in the post-Barker era: affordability, household formation, and tenure choice

The Barker Review of Housing Supply recommended the greateruse of market indicators as the basis for providing sufficientland for future housing requirements. Worsening affordabilitywould be a sign that more land is required. However, the traditionalapproach to land release used by planners is based on trendhousehold projections. The paper shows that this will typicallylead to worsening affordability over time. The paper, therefore,develops an alternative economic model more suitable to thepost-Barker era, covering both household formation and tenurechoice. The model is used to analyse a range of policy issues,including raising home-ownership rates and home-ownership sustainability.