Two currencies,one model? Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll

We use the foreign exchange forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyze the expectation formation process of forecasters for the exchange rates of the euro and the yen vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar for the period 1999–2005. We also compare the expectation formation process with the actual exchange rate process. We find that most forecasters have contrarian exchange rate expectations, but our results also indicate significant heterogeneity between forecasters. While the actual exchange rate process of the yen/dollar exchange rate shows negative autocorrelation, the dollar/euro exchange rate exhibits positive autocorrelation.     

Operations of a Pension Fund after the Asian Crisis: The Thai Experience*

During and after the Asian crisis, institutional investors and pension funds in Asian financial markets have been confronted with a number of difficulties effecting their performance and the way they carry out their role within the national pension system. We analyze these problems by comparing the actual investment policy of an institutional investor with an optimal investment strategy derived from the insights of modern portfolio theory. We also analyze whether the organizational set‐up of a pension fund allows it to adequately perform its role within the pension system. As an example, we examine the operations of the Thai Government Pension Fund (GPF). We find that allowing international investments and reducing restrictions on equity investments while lowering the implicit requirements for investments in government debt would allow the GPF to further diversify its investment risk and to increase its risk‐adjusted return. We also show that some changes in the governance structure of the GPF would lower the occurrence of conflicts of interest for the management and increase the efficiency of the GPF operations.     

Competition,regulation, and broadband access to the internet

This paper reexamines the effect of the regulatory regime on both penetration and coverage of broadband access to the internet. The framework allows for an evaluation of policy initiatives, guidelines and measures to bridge the digital divide and to promote investment. A welfare analysis compares service-based with facilities-based competition and asks whether and how high-speed access to the internet should be subsidized. Using an approach similar to Valletti, Barros, and Hoernig (2002), the paper highlights the importance of population density for whether firms invest to provide internet access. The analysis reveals a trade-off between coverage and penetration.     

Social security and saving — A critical note on the feldstein hypothesis

Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird versucht, Feldsteins Hypothese, wonach die Sozialversicherung das Sparen dämpft, an Hand internationaler Querschnittdaten zu überprüfen. Ausgehend von einem Ansatz, den Feldstein aufbauend auf das Lebenszyklusmodell in den Jahren 1977 und 1980 entwickelte, wird versucht, die Validität der Ergebnisse in bezug auf Änderungen in den Variablendefinitionen, der Zeitperiode sowie der Sampleauswahl aufzuzeigen. Weiters wird der Einfluß von geringen Modellmodifikationen (Berücksichtigung der Arbeitslosenrate als Unsicherheits-bzw. Stimmungsindikator) sowie Änderungen der Schätzmethode (gewogene oder ungewogene Regression bzw. OLS oder TSLS) auf die Resultate untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß die Feldstein-Hypothese keineswegs als ein empirisch allgemein gültiges Gesetz angesehen werden kann, sondern eher als zufällig zustandegekommen.     

Quality competition and entry deterrence: When to launch a second brand

We study the rationale for an incumbent to launch a second brand when facing potential entry into a market with quality‐differentiated products and a fringe producer. Depending on market size, the cost of a second brand and a potential entrant's setup cost the incumbent might use a second brand both when deterring and when accommodating entry. For low costs of brand proliferation, the high‐quality firm will prevent entry with limit qualities or multiple brands. The high‐quality incumbent will accommodate entry only if it cannot be prevented. Accommodation is always accompanied by an additional brand safeguarding the premium brand.     

Resurrecting Lochner: A Defense of Unprincipled Judicial Activism

Lochner v. New York, 198 U.S. 45 (1905), stands as one of theSupreme Court's most reviled decisions. We challenge the criticalconsensus against Lochner and provide a defense, albeit a contingentdefense, of "unprincipled" judicial activism. To do so, we developa game-theoretic model of judicial–legislative interaction.We use the model to compare outcomes generated in a system oflegislative supremacy to outcomes generated in a system in whichjudicial review is provided by a legally unprincipled, activistjudiciary. We show that judicial review, even when providedby an activist, politicized judiciary, can promote importantconstitutional values and improve legislative quality relativeto a deferential judiciary. In doing so, we identify an important"passive" component to the effect that judicial review has onlegislatures and on legislation. Finally, we demonstrate thatthe addition of other institutions and constraints on judicialbehavior amplify the beneficial effects that judicial reviewprovides to the legislative process.     

Going Multinational: What are the Effects on Home‐Market Performance?

Abstract. This paper compares the home‐market performance of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) and national firms, both before and after switching from national to multinational activities. Regarding the former case, our results show that future multinationals outperform domestic firms. When assessing the ex post performance of multinationals, selectivity issues must be taken into account. Applying an endogenous treatment model, it turns out that after switching, both productivity and wage growth are higher at newly founded MNEs. While capital intensities increase compared with those of national firms, employment growth rates are negatively related to switching, suggesting that home and foreign employment are substitutes.     

Are there major differences in the attitudes and service quality of standard and seasonal employees? An empirical examination and implications for practice

Despite the increased use of seasonal employees by organizations, few studies have been completed on the attitudes and service quality of seasonal office workers. Using Lautsch's classification model, we analyzed the organizational context in which the standard and seasonal workers in this study were employed. Hypotheses were developed based upon the organizational analysis and social exchange theory. Results from archival data obtained from a web‐based organizational survey of 205 clerical and professional workers indicated contrary to expectations, standard and seasonal employees did not significantly differ in terms of perceptions of overall job conditions, perceived organizational support (POS), or job engagement. However, seasonal employees did report significantly fewer opportunities to work on challenging tasks, less comfortable physical working conditions, and less job security than the standard workers. As predicted, standard employees reported significantly higher levels of service quality performance than seasonal employees. Additionally, job engagement mediated the relationship between POS and service quality for both the standard and seasonal employees. Implications for managing seasonal employees are discussed.     

Probleme gleichgewichtsorientierter Inflationserklärungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungHerrn Doz. Abele und Herrn Dr. Beinsen bin ich für die kritische Durchsicht dieser Arbeit zu Dank verpflichtet. Doz. Abele hat mir vor allem allgemeine Hinweise zum Stand der Theorie gegeben, die mich zu dieser Arbeit erst so recht anregten.