FORECASTING VOLATILITY FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION

The volatility of an asset is a primary input to the portfolio selection problem. Information about volatility is available from two sources, namely the share market and the option market. This paper examines the forecasting performance, over a three month investment horizon, of time series forecasts (from the share market) and option based implied volatilities. Three time series models, including GARCH, are used and twenty four implied volatility estimation models are employed. Using a data set of twelve UK companies, it is demonstrated that implied volatilities produce better individual forecasts than time series. However, more remarkably, forecasts combining implied volatilies and time series estimates significantly outperform both component forecasts.     

Cephalon, Inc. Taking risk management theory seriously

Cephalon Inc., a biotech firm, bought call options on its own stock to meet its conditional cash flow needs. We analyze this decision by using the cash flow hedging concepts of Froot et al., (1993. Journal of Finance 5, 1629–1658). We identify the managerial analyses necessary to apply this theory and discuss managerial considerations absent from the theory. We find that managers consider deadweight costs of risk management, which theory tends to ignore. Theory provides little guidance in how to measure these and other deadweight costs. Finally, uncertainty about the availability of external financing and accounting considerations are critical considerations by managers.     

The purpose of capital for institutions with government-insured deposits

An earlier version of this article was presented at a conference sponsored by Arthur Andersen, Freddie Mac, and Salomon Brothers, Capitalizing for the 90s, held in Washington DC on March 21, 1991.     

Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Evidence from Foreign Debt Use in East Asia

Using a data set of East Asian nonfinancial companies, we examine a firm's choice between local, foreign, and synthetic local currency (hedged foreign currency) debt. We find evidence of unique as well as common factors that determine each debt type's use, indicating the importance of examining debt at a disaggregated level. We exploit the Asian financial crisis as a natural experiment to investigate the role of debt type in firm performance. Surprisingly, we find that the use of synthetic local currency debt is associated with the biggest drop in market value, possibly due to currency derivative market illiquidity during the crisis.     

Leverage and Volatility Feedback Effects in High-Frequency Data

We examine the relationship between volatility and past andfuture returns using high-frequency aggregate equity index data.Consistent with a prolonged "leverage" effect, we find the correlationsbetween absolute high-frequency returns and current and pasthigh-frequency returns to be significantly negative for severaldays, whereas the reverse cross-correlations are generally negligible.We also find that high-frequency data may be used in more accuratelyassessing volatility asymmetries over longer daily return horizons.Furthermore, our analysis of several popular continuous-timestochastic volatility models clearly points to the importanceof allowing for multiple latent volatility factors for satisfactorilydescribing the observed volatility asymmetries.     

Market Interest in Nonfinancial Information

During the past two decades, more and more companies have volunteered to provide “corporate social responsibility” or “sustainability” reports that include information about their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies and performance. Such reporting has come about largely in response to demands by a wide range of stakeholders for information about how the company's operations are affecting society in a number of different ways. But do investors really care about companies' ESG performance and policies? Using data from Bloomberg, the authors provide the first broadly based empirical evidence of investors' interest in ESG data. More specifically, the authors show how interest in the top 20 ESG metrics varies with geographical location (European vs. American), asset class (fixed income vs. equity), and firm type. At the aggregate market level, there is greater interest in environmental and governance information than in “social” information. U.S. investors are more interested than their European counterparts in governance and less interested in environmental information. Equity investors are interested in a wider range of nonfinancial information than are fixed income investors. And whereas sell‐side analysts are primarily interested in greenhouse gas emissions, money managers tend to focus on a broader set of metrics. Similarly, pension funds and hedge funds have shown interest in more nonfinancial metrics than insurance companies. The authors' bottom line: Companies need to recognize the growing market interest in nonfinancial information and ensure that they are providing it according to the specific information needs of market users.     

Exposure Triggers and Allocation Methods: Learning Lessons From Prior Court Rulings

This study provides a review of some of the major court rulings that have shaped and continue to shape the commercial general liability (CGL) market. The evolution of the concepts of "triggers" and allocations systems is examined to gain a perspective on the way in which courts reinterpret contract language to apply to new and emerging exposures. A review of the issues impacting the CGL provides valuable insights into the way court rulings can create a significant impact in the insurance market. A stream of court decisions provides the backdrop for today's challenges, including the reemergence of asbestos claims. The study also fills a gap in the literature related to the crisis in the CGL marketplace and changes in the pricing, regulation, and solvency of insurers operating in those lines. As old risks continue to evolve and new risks emerge, courts have begun to reinterpret liability contracts in much the same way as they reinterpreted contracts with regard to pollution and products in the 1970s and 1980s. Recent rulings related to asbestos and environmental liability underscore the importance of these issues in today's marketplace. By reviewing these events related to the CGL policy, insurers, insureds, and regulators may gain a new perspective on the importance of developing a clear standard wording that will be consistently interpreted in light of new exposures.     

An autoregressive jump process for common stock returns

This paper develops a new distribution theory for common stock returns. The model is composed of a calendar time diffusion process and a jump process where the magnitudes of the jumps may be autocorrelated. Empirical tests are performed on a month of transactions returns for twenty New York Stock Exchange securities. The data analysis supports the validity of the proposed theory.