Likely gains from market timing in Japan

This paper explores the potential gains and required predictive ability of market timing in Japan and then compares the results to previously reported findings from another developed financial market — the United States — and a developing Asia Pacific financial market — Singapore. Shifts between cash equivalents and common stocks are evaluated. The results demonstrate that the potential gains from market timing in Japan are quite attractive and that the minimum predictive accuracy required for successful market timing may be attainable by some portfolio managers. However, for the period examined, the results also indicate that larger incremental gains result from market timing Singapore stocks and cash equivalents.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Second Annual Pacific Basin Finance Conference in Seoul, Korea in 1991. The author appreciates the helpful comments of Lim Kian Guan and two anonymous referees.     

Nonlinear Alternatives to Unit Root Tests and Public Finances Sustainability: Some Evidence from Latin American and Caribbean Countries*

We analyse the sustainability of government debt for Latin American and Caribbean countries employing unit‐root tests with nonlinear alternative hypotheses and examine the robustness of our results against those from unit‐root tests with breaks and threshold nonlinearities. We show that, in general support for sustainability substantially improves when nonlinear mean reversion is taken into account. We also find that the results obtained from applying various tests with nonlinear alternatives, although broadly consistent, are not identical. This suggests that reliance on a single unit‐root test for assessing fiscal policy sustainability may be misleading.     

Fiscal policy,rent seeking,and growth under electoral uncertainty: theory and evidence from the OECD

Abstract. We construct a general equilibrium model of economic growth and optimally chosen fiscal policy, in which individuals compete with each other for a share of government spending and two political parties alternate in power according to exogenous electoral uncertainty. The main prediction is that uncertainty about remaining in power results in increased fiscal spending, which in turn distorts incentives by pushing individuals away from productive work to rent‐seeking activities; then, distorted incentives hurt growth. This scenario receives empirical support in a dataset of 25 OECD countries over the period 1982–96. In particular, uncertainty about remaining in power leads to larger government shares in GDP, which in turn exert an adverse effect on the ICRG index measuring incentives and this is bad for growth.     

COMBINING REVEALED AND STATED PREFERENCE DATA TO ESTIMATE THE NONMARKET VALUE OF ECOLOGICAL SERVICES: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE

Abstract This paper reviews the marketing, transportation and environmental economics literature on the joint estimation of revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data. The RP and SP approaches are first described with a focus on the strengths and weaknesses of each. Recognizing these strengths and weaknesses, the potential gains from combining data are described. A classification system for combined data that emphasizes the type of data combination and the econometric models used is proposed. A methodological review of the literature is pursued based on this classification system. Examples from the environmental economics literature are highlighted. A discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each type of jointly estimated model is then presented. Suggestions for future research, in particular opportunities for application of these models to environmental quality valuation, are presented.     

Effect of Management Practices on Actual ICT Application in Kenyan Hotels: A PLS-SEM Approach

Advances in information communication technology (ICT) has seen many hotels invest huge sums of money in ICTs to enhance their performance. However, this has never been the case for most hotels in economically developing countries due to poor ICT implementation. This study sought to establish how ICT-related management practices influence actual ICT application by hotels in Kenya. A total of 194 hotel managers drawn from 36 hotels were surveyed. The data collected was analyzed quantitatively. The outcomes show that though operational management and human resource management practices significantly predict actual ICT application, HRM practices have the biggest effect in explaining the variance in actual ICT application. The study finding offer insights to best management practices and how they influence actual ICT use in hotels.