Financial literacy and its consequences: Evidence from Russia during the financial crisis

The ability of consumers to make informed financial decisions improves their ability to develop sound personal finance. This paper uses a panel data set from Russia, an economy in which household debt has grown at an astounding rate, to examine the importance of financial literacy and its effects on behavior. The paper studies both the financial and real consequences of financial illiteracy. Even though consumer borrowing increased very rapidly in Russia, only 41% of respondents demonstrate an understanding of interest compounding and only 46% can answer a simple question about inflation. Financial literacy is positively related to participation in financial markets and negatively related to the use of informal sources of borrowing. Moreover, individuals with higher financial literacy are significantly less likely to report experiencing a negative income shock during 2009 and have greater availability of unspent income and higher spending capacity. The relationship between financial literacy and availability of unspent income is higher in 2009, suggesting that financial literacy may better equip individuals to deal with macroeconomic shocks.     

From Hero to Zero? The Role of the Euro in the Current Crisis: Theory and some Empirical Evidence

A simple theoretical model of monetary unification and data from 11 euro members are used to investigate the common currency’s role in the macroeconomic performance of these countries. Euro membership has been typically accompanied by lower (or steady) inflation, but also by higher business-cycle volatility. In addition, synchronization of cyclical output was substantially affected by the common currency only in Greece (where it declined considerably) and Finland and Ireland (where it increased). Consistent with the theoretical predictions, the empirical evidence shows a strong negative relationship between cyclical synchronizations and volatilities, which however is not much stronger under the euro than it was during the Maastricht period.     

Oil and stock markets before and after financial crises: A local Gaussian correlation approach

The effect of financial shocks on the cross‐market linkages between oil prices (spot and futures) and stock markets is examined for four major crises. We employ the local Gaussian correlation approach and find that the two markets were regionalized for most of the 1990s and the early 2000s. Flights from stocks to oil occur in all crisis episodes, except the recent global financial crisis. The view that stock and oil markets behave like “a market of one” after the financialization of commodities is further supported by the presence of contagion between US stock markets and all the benchmark oil markets.     

Monetary Policy Delegation, Contract Costs and Contract Targets

We reconsider the optimal central banker contract derived in Walsh (1995). We show that if the government's objective function places weight (value) on the cost of the contract, then the optimal inflation contract does not completely neutralize the inflation bias. Furthermore, the more concerned the government is about the cost of the contract or the less selfish is the central banker, the smaller is the share of the inflation bias eliminated by the contract. Finally, a central banker contract written in terms of output can completely eradicate the inflationary bias, regardless of concerns about contract costs.     

Facebook Content Strategies and Citizens’ Online Engagement: The Case of Greek Local Governments

This paper analyzes the communication strategies used by Greek local governments through the utilization of Web 2.0 technologies, specifically Facebook, and the effectiveness of these strategies in relation to citizens’ online engagement. More specifically, it examines Facebook communication strategies and levels of citizens’ engagement. For this purpose, we conducted a content analysis on the active and official Facebook pages of local municipalities in Greece from January 2017 until the end of September 2017. Our results suggest a rise in the percentage of active Facebook pages maintained by local governments in comparison to our 2014 study. Our results also show that local governments in Greece are using Facebook in a predominantly top-down manner to promote events organized by the municipality and to push one-way information to citizens about their services and actions. Local authorities have, however, made significant progress in relation to posts that support transparency and accountability and that enhance or mobilize citizens’ participation. Our evaluation of local government Facebook strategies indicates that marketing the municipality to external public, such as tourists, and providing information about services are effective strategies that drive citizens’ online attitude expression (liking), engagement (commenting), and advocacy behavior (sharing). According to our analysis, local governments in Greece prefer the strategies that we found to be the least engaging. In addition, our study provides interesting details of how specific characteristics and modes of Facebook messages (photos, videos, URLs, hashtags, and mentions) impact on citizens’ engagement. Finally, our results provide valuable insights for social media managers in local government who aim to increase the impact of their municipal Facebook pages.     

Information in balance sheets for future stock returns: Evidence from net operating assets

In this paper, we show that the negative relation of net operating assets (NOA) with future stock returns first documented by Hirshleifer et al. (2004) applies to both net working and investing pieces of NOA, while it is mostly driven by asset NOA components. Predictability of returns is significant only for their unexpected parts (unrelated to past sales growth) and not uniform across different industries. We also find that only high (low) NOA firms with asset expansion (contraction) and weak (strong) background of profitable investments exhibit negative (positive) abnormal returns. Our evidence suggests that the NOA anomaly may be present due to a combination of opportunistic earnings management and agency related overinvestment.     

Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts

We find evidence of heterogeneity and irrationality among professional forecasts for three-month inter-bank rates and ten-year gilt yields at both short and long forecast horizons over the period 1989-2006. The majority of biased forecasts overestimate the future spot rate, consistent with slow adjustment to the declining trend in inflation and interest rates. Furthermore, we produce evidence indicating that both monetary policy actions and elements of communication policy have information content regarding the rationality of forecasts. Changes in official bank rates and disagreement among the Monetary Policy Committee influence the rationality of forecasts. The publication of inflation reports has no effect.