Application of Risk Theory to Interpretation of Stochastic Cash-Flow-Testing Results

Abstract

In this paper we consider the Sparre Andersen insurance risk model. Three cases are discussed: the ordinary renewal risk process, stationary renewal risk process, and s-delayed renewal risk process. In the first part of the paper we study the joint distribution of surplus immediately before and at ruin under the renewal insurance risk model. By constructing an exponential martingale, we obtain Lundberg-type upper bounds for the joint distribution. Consequently we obtain bounds for the distribution of the deficit at ruin and ruin probability. In the second part of the paper, we consider the special case of phase-type claims and rederive the closed-form expression for the distribution of the severity of ruin, obtained by Drekic et al. (2003, 2004). Finally, we present some numerical results to illustrate the tightness of the bounds obtained in this paper.     

The rule 10b5-1 loophole: an empirical study

This paper seeks to empirically examine the market effects of a loophole in insider trading law that allows insiders to cancel supposedly irrevocable pre-planned trades under SEC Rule 10b5-1 based on inside information. Based on an econometric analysis of a dataset of 81 NASDAQ-listed companies from 2004 to 2006, the paper concludes that: (1) the trading public attaches primary significance to the announcement of a 10b5-1 plan rather than the specified start date of that plan; (2) insiders make above-market profits using 10b5-1 plans but do not appear to arbitrarily or continually create such plans; (3) 10b5-1 plans have a significant negative effect on the liquidity of a firm’s shares, and therefore the firm’s cost of capital; and (4) insiders do not appear to increase the volatility of their own firms’ shares in order to profit by trading on the basis of material nonpublic information under the protection of the 10b5-1 safe harbor.     

The Trade Union Role in Career Development: a Membership Perspective

This article explores how a highly unionised and professional occupational group, school teachers, want their trade union to be involved in their career development. By taking an apparently individualistic concept and considering it from a collective perspective, the article provides insights into a neglected aspect of career development.     

Job congruence, academic achievement, and earnings

This study combines a widely held view of how earnings are related to education and job tenure (The Mincer model¹) with the notion that earnings are associated with the quality of an employer–employee job match. The quality of an individual's occupational choice is measured using job congruence, a commonly-used construct in the psychometric literature. Better-matched individuals should be more productive and, as a result, have higher earnings. Previous studies were unable to address the importance of job preferences to earnings because available data do not include both job congruence and individual earnings. The Alumni Outcomes Survey, recently produced by ACT Inc., is among the first data sets to include both variables. We use these data to estimate the importance of job congruence on earnings after controlling both for job tenure and for academic achievement, measured by an individual's ACT score. Results indicate that job congruence is positively correlated with earnings, and has effects on earnings that are of almost equal magnitude with years of education.     

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

The emergence of Bayesian methodology has facilitated respondent-level conjoint models, and deriving utilities from choice experiments has become very popular among those modeling product line decisions or new product introductions. This review begins with a paradox of why experimental choices should mirror market behavior despite clear differences in content, structure and motivation. It then addresses ways to design the choice tasks so that they are more likely to reflect market choices. Finally, it examines ways to model the results of the choice experiments to better mirror both underlying decision processes and potential market choices. Co-chairs. Author order is alphabetical.     

An Ampirical Assessment of the Contribution of Small Business Employment to U.S. State Economic Performance

Small Business Economics - Small business proponents regularly couple their arguments for favorable government policies and reduced tax and regulatory burdens, to the presumed benefits of increased...     

Political Activism and Workplace Industrial Relations in a UK 'Failing' School

The paper draws on a qualitative case study of workplace industrial relations in an inner–city secondary school identified as 'failing' and subsequently closed. It considers the way unionized teachers and their representatives interpret, influence and resist the impact of centralized managerial and educational change. The local implementation of such change leads to an engagement with the debates on union renewal. In particular, the paper explores the dynamic interrelationship between political and trade union activism and the tension between workplace relations and formal union organization.