Money-based underlying inflation measure for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach

We estimate a dynamic factor model for the cross section of monetary and price indicators. We extract the common part of the dataset’s fluctuations and decompose it into structural shocks. We argue that one of the shocks identified has empirical properties (in terms of impulse response functions) that are fully in line with the theoretically expected relationship between money growth and inflation, confirming that the process identified has the capacity for economic interpretation. Based on this finding, we decompose recent inflationary developments in Russia into those that are associated with changes in monetary stance and other shorter-lived shocks.     

A generalization to QUAIDS

Previous research shows that consumers’ response to price and income changes is heterogeneous. In addition, evidence from national data often does not support the classical assumption of one commodity-one price. This paper introduces a data coherent generalization to the quadratic form of the almost ideal demand system (g-QUAIDS) that incorporates the sources of heterogeneity in the demand function and allows for regional price variation. Aggregation over consumers imposes a linearization to the g-QUAIDS that requires a new set of price indices. The results from an empirical study by using microdata from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of Iran highlight the impact of aggregation bias in relation to the level of aggregation. An investigation of the predictive power of linear versus nonlinear g-QUAIDS in different aggregation levels provides practical recommendations for consumer demand analysis.     

A proposal for a more objective measure of de facto constitutional constraints

In this paper we propose two new indicators of de facto constitutional constraints. The indicators are based on the presence or the absence of easily observable political events. This makes the proposed measures relatively objective and easy to verify relative to the most widely used indicators of de jure and de facto constitutions. This paper describes the indicators and demonstrates their usefulness for research on economic development.     

Relevance of the EU Banking Sector to Economic Growth

Using panel estimates and a sample including all 28 European Union (EU) countries, this paper seeks to improve upon the existing literature with empirical evidence on the role that banking institutions can play in promoting economic growth. Banking sector performance is proxied by relevant operational, capital, liquidity and asset quality financial ratios. Economic growth is represented by the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The estimations take into account the recent international financial crisis and consider three panels: one for the time period 1998–2012, a second one for the years before the crisis (1998–2006) and another for the subinterval 2007–2012. The results allow us to draw conclusions not only about the importance of the various financial ratios to economic growth but also regarding reactions to the recent crisis.     

Measuring the Unmeasured: Cultural Heritage Studies in Honor of Prof. Francesco Forte

This paper presents the contributions of Francesco Forte to the measurement of art and cultural goods and services, as I worked with him as his co-author. These contributions range from the valuation of art goods by the art matrix we conceived, to the valuation of the cultural welfare of nations, regions and local communities. Our work also assessed the provision of cultural welfare at the national, regional and local level for the public and non-profit sectors and measured the efficiency and effectiveness of museum bureaucracies. We also studied the profitability of investments in the arts by considering product life cycles, artistic movements and economies. More recently, with Michele Caputo, we focused on the long-run life cycle and success of the movie industry for select countries competing with foreign movie industries and TV entertainment by adopting Caputo’s fractional derivatives theory, which captures the role of past history. Professor Forte and I also developed the Differential Touristic Development Index to measure the effects of art and cultural enterprises as tourist attractions. The most innovative contributions of Francesco Forte to the measurement of the economic value of cultural goods and services demonstrate that it is possible to “measure the unmeasured,” and therein improve public collection of statistical data with the goal of increasing the preservation and valuation of cultural goods and services and highlighting their potential as economic multipliers.     

Poor institutions as a comparative advantage

Classic theories of comparative advantage point to factor productivity and factor abundance as determinants of specialization and trade. Likewise, geography and topography can determine trade patterns. Institutions, however, are increasingly seen as important sources of comparative advantage. A global drug prohibition regime implies that institutional quality matters more than traditional sources in the drug trade. This paper theoretically models trade patterns of illicit goods and confirms the role of institutions empirically with respect to the drug trade. In particular, illicit enterprises gain force in countries where resources are scarce, drug enforcement is uncertain, and institutions are weak in absolute terms and relative to neighboring countries. I propose several policy alternatives that emphasize economic opportunity for the poor and institutional quality that complement drug prohibition.     

Does European development have Roman roots? Evidence from the German Limes

This paper contributes to the understanding of the long-run consequences of Roman rule on economic development. In ancient times, the area of contemporary Germany was divided into a Roman and a non-Roman part. The study uses this division to test whether the formerly Roman part of Germany are more developed than the non-Roman part. This is done using the Limes Germanicus wall as geographical discontinuity in a regression discontinuity design framework. The results indicate that economic development—as measured by luminosity—is indeed significantly and robustly larger in the formerly Roman part of Germany. The study identifies the persistence of the Roman road network until the present as an important factor causing this developmental advantage of the formerly Roman part of Germany both by fostering city growth and by allowing for a denser road network.