Debt-for-nature swaps: Axing the debt instead of the forests

Combining debt reduction with halting deforestation seems to be an attractive way of solving two urgent global problems at the same time at hardly any cost. But this view may be overly optimistic. What are the advantages and the drawbacks of debt-for-nature swaps? Are there any better alternatives?     

Box-Jenkins Methoden — Alternative Verfahren zur Prognose ökonomischer Zeitreihen

Summary In this paper we try to clarify whether the use ofBox-Jenkins methods would have improved the forecasting performance in Austria during the recession of 1975. For this purpose we estimate ARIMA models for gross national product, private consumption, investment in plant and equipment, and inventory investment. We then compare the forecasts derived from these models with the results of more convential forecasting techniques. It can not be expected that Box-Jenkins methods predict a business cycle turning point. But, as soon as the recession was under way Box-Jenkins methods were faster in adapting to the new situation than conventional forecasting techniques. We found that the accuracy of Box-Jenkins predictions depends to a large extent on the length of the forecasting horizon. Our results suggest that the forecasting horizon should not exceed one year. All in all, Box-Jenkins methods applied together with the forecasting techniques already in use could further improve the forecasting performance.     

Consumer dissatisfaction — Search for causes and alleviation outside the marketplace

This paper is an attempt to provide a theoretical basis for the design of new, more effective, directions for institutions and consumer leaders whose goal is the alleviation of today's widespread dissatisfaction among consumers. In contrast to the common assumption that consumer dissatisfaction is caused by inequalities and imperfections in the marketplace, the author introduces, and defends by use of the framework of E. R. G. theory, the concept that a large portion of the dissatisfaction experienced and expressed by an individual in the area of material consumption reflects his dissatisfaction with need fulfillment at the higher level of interpersonal relationships. The new concept suggests that the most effective route to greater satisfaction among consumers is not likely to be found in increased consumption opportunities through higher incomes and/or better deals in a more perfect marketplace, but in improved satisfaction of relatedness needs.

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Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag versucht, einen neuen Ansatz zur Verringerung der Unzufriedenheit von Verbrauchern theoretisch zu begründen. Im Gegensatz zu der sonst üblichen Annahme, daß Verbraucherunzufriedenheit auf Unzulänglichkeiten von Produkten und Märkten zurückgeht, wird hier die Auffassung vertreten, daß sie weitgehend auf unzureichender Befriedigung von Bedürfnissen nach zwischenmenschlichen Beziehungen beruht. Diese Auffassung wird bedürfnistheoretisch (mit der E. R. G.-Theorie) abgeleitet. Sie legt nahe, daß höhere Zufriedenheit von Verbrauchern nicht so sehr durch bessere Marktbedingungen, bessere Produkte oder höhere Einkommen erreicht werden kann, als vielmehr durch verbesserte Möglichkeiten zur Befriedigung von zwischenmenschlichen Beziehungen.

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Gerhard W. H. Scherf is an Associate Professor at University of Guelph, Department of Consumer Studies, Guelph, Ontario, Canada N1G 2 W1.     

I. Allgemeine wirstchaftslehre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Ein Beitrag zur nicht-statischen Werttheorie

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Ein empirischer Test der Annahme der permanenten Einkommenshypothese von Milton Friedman

Summary We apply the Variate-Difference-Method to yearly Austrian data from 1956 to 1975 to test the permanent-income-hypothesis byM. Fiedman.First we determe the degree of the polynomial, which is sufficient to eliminate the trend (i.e. the permanent part) from time series of disposable income. Then the permanent income variable is constructed in two alternative ways: first, as a polynomial in time and second bySheppard's smoothing formulae. Transitory consumption is identified with the residuals of the consumption function. A correlation analysis shows that, transitory income and consumption are correlated, if permanent income is determined by a trend polynomial, while this is not the case ifSheppard's smoothing formulae is used to estimate permanent income.Consumption functions are specified for total consumption, durables and non-durables and eleven sub-groups of total private consumption. The results indicate that autocorrelation can considerably be reduced by usingSheppard's smoothing formulae.     

Diffusion and scale dynamics: A case study

This paper examines the relationship between the diffusion of a major process innovation, oxygen steel-making, and the growth of plant sizes. As in some previous studies, a step-wise pattern of scale increases is observed; however, there is no stable correlation of these increases to cumulative capacity expansion, maximum plant sizes appear to have stabilized, and plants of widely dispersed capacities continued to be built as oxygen steel-making became the dominant technique, world-wide. Factors responsible for scale increase are analyzed; steadily growing equipment size, the addition of equipment to existing plants, and a wide range of minor innovations and adaptations have contributed to growth in plant capacities; in most instances, scale-up continued after the beginning of operations. It is concluded that the frequently-used concept of an optimal, or maximum feasible, plant scale remains ambiguous without reference to the specific technical and economic conditions of production systems, and that plant-size increases are fully dependent on continuing technological effort.