Selecting stochastic mortality models for the Italian population

The future revision of capital requirements and a market-consistent valuation of non-hedgeable liabilities lead to an increasing attention on forecasting longevity trends. In this field, many methodologies focus on either modeling mortality or pricing mortality-linked securities (as longevity bonds). Following Lee–Carter method (proposed in 1992), actuarial literature has provided several extensions in order to consider different trends observed in European data set (e.g., the cohort effect). The purpose of the paper is to compare the features of main mortality models proposed over the years. Model selection became indeed a primary task with the aim to identify the “best” model. What is meant by best is controversial, but good selection techniques are usually based on a good balance between goodness of fit and simplicity. In this regard, different criteria, mainly based on residual and projected rates analysis, are here used. For the sake of comparison, main forecasting methods have been applied to deaths and exposures to risk of male Italian population. Weaknesses and strengths have been emphasized, by underlying how various models provide a different goodness of fit according to different data sets. At the same time, the quality and the variability of forecasted rates have been compared by evaluating the effect on annuity values. Results confirm that some models perform better than others, but no single model can be defined as the best method.     

MODELING INVESTMENT‐SECTOR EFFICIENCY SHOCKS: WHEN DOES DISAGGREGATION MATTER?

The most straightforward way to analyze investment‐sector productivity developments is to construct a two‐sector model with a sector‐specific productivity shock. An often used modeling shortcut accounts for such developments using a one‐sector model with shocks to the efficiency of investment in a capital accumulation equation. This shortcut is theoretically justified when some stringent conditions are satisfied. Using a two‐sector model, we consider the implications of relaxing several of the conditions that are at odds with the U.S. Input–Output Tables, including equal factor shares across sectors. The effects of productivity shocks to an investment‐producing sector of our two‐sector model differ from those of efficiency shocks to investment in a one‐sector model. Notably, expansionary productivity shocks boost consumption in every period, whereas expansionary efficiency shocks cause consumption to fall substantially for many periods.     

Quality Factors Influencing Consumer Demand for Small Fruit by Focus Group and Sensory Test

ABSTRACT

The market of berries is a niche of high value in Italy. Small fruit’s healthy properties are well known in the international market, but little is known about the reason for a low commercialization rate of fresh small fruit in Italy. The objective of this study was to assess consumer preferences in Italy for selected berry species. Moreover, the study aims to identify the relevant attributes of berries that affect the demand for this produce according to consumers and to compare these attributes. We assessed relevant attributes affecting the demand for fresh berries for different consumers’ profiles and compared berries’ attributes rankings. The results reveal high concordance between blackberries and raspberries; price is the attribute that constrains more purchases because it is deemed too high. Consumers prefer small fruit because of the rising interest in their nutraceutical value, and they have a higher willingness to pay because of this important attribute.     

Olfactory priming on consumer categorization,recall, and choice

Consumer choices are mostly regulated by pleasurable experiences that arise outside of the individuals' awareness in response to sensory attributes. This research examines the unconscious mechanism underlying consumers' behavior in response to odors applying the priming approach. Five experiments show that individuals' responses to odors involve two mechanisms, one affective (affective priming) and one associative (semantic priming) that impact consumers' categorization, recall, and choice. We found that when individuals perceive an odor as pleasant, their memory for odor-congruent brand logos (Experiment 1), and categorization of odor-congruent visual objects (Experiment 2) is improved. Unpleasant odors, instead, improve the categorization of odor-congruent visual objects only when they are made salient (Experiments 3 and 4). A pleasant odor diffused in the environment also drives consumers toward odor-congruent choices (Experiment 5), providing evidence that the incidental exposure to odors may induce affective and semantic associations with unrelated objects and behaviors. We also demonstrate that olfactory cues might be more effective than other modality (visual) stimuli to drive consumer responses. An implication for marketing is that odors employed in retail settings not only may induce an experience of pleasure but also promote specific consumer responses, such as categorization, recall, and choice.     

Monetary Policy Indeterminacy and Identification Failures in the U.S.: Results from A Robust Test

We propose a novel identification‐robust test for the null hypothesis that an estimated New Keynesian model has a reduced form consistent with the unique stable solution against the alternative of sunspot‐driven multiple equilibria. Our strategy is designed to handle identification failures as well as the misspecification of the relevant propagation mechanisms. We invert a likelihood ratio test for the cross‐equation restrictions (CER) that the New Keynesian system places on its reduced‐form solution under determinacy. If the CER are not rejected, sunspot‐driven expectations can be ruled out from the model equilibrium and we accept the structural model. Otherwise, we move to a second‐step and invert an Anderson and Rubin‐type test for the orthogonality restrictions (OR) implied by the system of structural Euler equations. The hypothesis of indeterminacy and the structural model are accepted if the OR are not rejected. We investigate the finite‐sample performance of the suggested identification‐robust two‐step testing strategy by some Monte Carlo experiments and then apply it to a New Keynesian AD/AS model estimated with actual US data. In spite of some evidence of weak identification as for the ‘Great Moderation’ period, our results offer formal support to the hypothesis of a switch from indeterminacy to a scenario consistent with uniqueness occurring in the late 1970s. Our identification‐robust full‐information confidence set for the structural parameters computed on the ‘Great Moderation’ regime turns out to be more precise than the intervals previously reported in the literature through ‘limited‐information’ methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Induced Innovation,Endogenous Technical Change and Income Distribution in a Labor‐Constrained Model of Classical Growth

We present a steady state analysis of a labor‐constrained classical growth model with endogenous direction and intensity of technical change. Firms use retained profits to raise their productive capacity and to improve labor and capital productivities. Investments are planned to maximize instantaneous profits. Comparative dynamics exercises show that (1) an increase in the saving rate and in R&D subsidies raises the steady state labor share, labor productivity growth and the employment rate, and (2) a rise in workers' bargaining power reduces the employment rate while leaving productivity growth and distribution unaffected.     

Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue - responsiveness and persistence -, a feature not captured by automatic stabilisers, we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). Drawing on quarterly data, we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method for eight European Union countries plus the US. The results suggest that significant changes in the fiscal stance (including those related to the current crisis) are reflected in the estimates of persistence and responsiveness.