Using artificial neural network and multivariate analysis techniques to evaluate road operating conditions

Regional paved roads are low volume roads with a prevalence of heavy traffic. In the world, these roads concern about 80% of the total road network; however, the traffic that affects these roads is about 20%. Since regional roads are characterized by weak demand, budget for their management/maintenance is very low. This produces considerable difficulties in the choice of strategies for maintenance planning and scheduling. For this reason, the recurring topics of research in this field deal with typical roads issues and aim to develop low cost tools and methods. The study proposes a decision support system to evaluate regional paved roads operating condition in relation to the hydrogeological situation. In particular, the system allows to evaluate in a quick and easy manner, the operating conditions of the road, through low-cost tools (i.e. using low economic resources). This is very useful in the case of LVRs because administrations for these roads have a limited budget. The procedure is developed on a regional paved roads network based on more than 80 roads located in Southern Italy. Data is collected by direct surveys in the field and is integrated with cartography and information available in road agency records. From data analysis, obtained using two different techniques, an easy and quick use procedure is made. In particular, Model 1 is built through multivariate analysis and Model 2 using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The results show the validity of the two models in Regional paved roads operating conditions estimation in relation to hydrogeological situations of sites. Both models show good reliability. In particular, the first model (Model 1) is characterized by a high level of significance (p < 0.01) and by a coefficient of determination equal to 0.82. Comparative tests between the second model (Model 2) on which standard tests cannot be performed for obvious reasons, and the first model (Model 1). The results show that the ANN model (model 2), characterized by lower residual, simulates more accurately than the second (Model 1).     

Supply chain configurations in a global environment: A longitudinal perspective

In the last few years, companies have paid growing attention to the management of their supply chain at a global level. The need for better suppliers, international competition and research of specific competences have forced companies to improve their ability to cope with suppliers and customers located in different countries around the world. This paper aims to provide an overview of how manufacturing companies use global supply chains and how their behaviour changes over time. Longitudinal data from a sample of companies from the last two editions of the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (IMSS) are used. A contingent analysis of manufacturing localization and globalization is also considered in order to identify factors influencing supply chain globalization strategies. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Revisiting the role of migrant social networks as determinants of international migration flows

This note revisits the role of migrant social networks (MSNs) as determinants of bilateral migration flows. We do so using two alternative databases, covering about 190 world countries for the period 1960–2000. In line with previous estimates, we consistently find a significant, positive, impact of MSNs at destination. We also find that such an impact decreases very slowly as the year when MSNs are observed is farther back in the past. We also find that geographical distance is becoming less and less important over time but significantly explains the absence of a migration corridor only when MSNs at destination have very small sizes.     

Common cycles in seasonal non-stationary time series

This paper extends the notion of common cycles to quarterly time series having unit roots both at the zero and seasonal frequencies. It is shown that common cycles are present in the Hylleberg–Engle–Granger–Yoo decomposition of these series when there exists a linear combination of their seasonal differences which follows an MA process of order, at most, three. The pitfalls of seasonal adjustment for common cycles analysis are also documented. Inference on common cycles in seasonally cointegrated series is derived from existing statistical methods for codependence. Concepts and methods are illustrated with an empirical analysis of the comovements between consumption and output using Italian data. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of customer loyalty as a brand extension purchase predictor

The paper explores the relationship between customer loyalty to the retail brand and the purchase of non-traditional products and services (NTPS) offered by grocery retailers with their private label (i.e. over-the-counter products, photo printing, mobile communication services and travel booking). Customer loyalty to the retail brand is measured through its behavioral and attitudinal components. A survey was conducted administering a questionnaire to 480 retail customers in two stores belonging to different retail grocers. A binary logistic regression was then applied using the buying of at least one NTPS as the dependent variable (1 = buy; 0 = no buy) and behavioral loyalty and attitudinal loyalty as independent variables. Results show that attitudinal loyalty plays a significant role as buying predictor, but this depends on the NTPS offered. Theoretical and managerial implications are derived.     

On the value of participation: endogenous emergence of social norms in a three-player ultimatum game experiment

We report results from two different settings of a three-player ultimatum game. Under the “Monocratic” rule, a player is randomly selected to make an offer to two receivers. Under the “Democratic” rule, all three players make a proposal, and one proposal is then randomly selected. A majority vote is required to implement the proposal in either setting. Although the two rules are strategically equivalent, different patterns of behaviour emerge as the number of interactions increase. Under the “Monocratic” rule, proposers seem to be entitled to claim a larger share of the pie, and receivers are more likely to accept, than in the “Democratic” rule. We speculate that institutions allowing more participation in the process of collective choice lead to a more socially responsible behaviour in individuals.     

Risk-sharing and Growth: The Role of Precautionary Savings in the "Education" Model

While the "risk amelioration" literature suggests that risk-sharing channels savings into risky but productive technologies and hence favours growth, models focused on precautionary savings reverse this conclusion. We solve, by means of numerical techniques, a model based on human capital accumulation through education, and find that the increase in precautionary savings makes labour more productive in the goods sector and draws resources from education, which is the "growth leading" activity. Hence, we establish a result favourable to financial integration, even in a model where precautionary savings play an important role.     

Manipulation of profits in Italian publicly-funded healthcare trusts

ABSTRACT

This paper examines earnings management in state-funded Italian healthcare trusts. Italy is unique in requiring trusts to have balanced budgets by law. Small negative and positive deviations from a balanced budget had quite different consequences. The authors found no evidence of accounting manipulation when trusts posted small losses. However, trusts were found to manipulate discretionary accruals, provisions and non-operating expenses to reduce small positive deviations from zero-profit.