Election outcomes and financial market returns in Canada

This paper investigates the relationship between federal election outcomes and expected returns and volatilities in the Canadian money, bond, equity and currency markets from 1951 to 2006. There is little evidence that investment opportunities are different in minority versus majority parliaments and only money market returns differ in Conservative versus Liberal governments. The equity market performs better in the late part of the electoral cycle than in the first two years. Furthermore, the Canadian equity investment opportunities are better in Democratic versus Republican administrations and in the late versus early parts of the presidential electoral cycle. The Canadian dollar is also affected by American election outcomes. No apparent variation in risk or expected state of the economy accounts for the differences in returns.     

Spatial Economic Analysis in Data‐Rich Environments

Controlling for spatial effects in micro‐level studies of consumer and producer behaviour necessitates a range of analytical modifications. These range from modest changes in data collection and the definition of variables to dramatic changes in the modelling of consumer and producer decision‐making. This paper discusses conceptual, empirical and data issues involved in modelling the spatial aspects of economic behaviour in data‐rich environments. Attention is given to established and emerging agricultural economic applications of spatial data and spatial econometric methods at the micro‐scale. Recent applications of individual and household data are featured, including models of land‐use change at the urban–rural interface, agricultural land values, and technological change and technology adoption.     

Evaluating the Relative Impact of Fiscal Incentives and Trade Policies on the Returns to Manufacturing in Taiwan, 1955–1995*

In the present paper, an integrated cash flow model is developed to examine the relative impact of tax incentives, financial subsidies, and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of industrial investments. It allows for the variables in the model to interact with each other. An application of the model is carried out for Taiwan, which has implemented a variety of fiscal incentives over the past 40 years. The principal policy conclusion is that trade and macroeconomic policies are much more important than income tax incentives or subsidized finance policies in determining the success of Taiwan's industrialization process. The effects of all of the fiscal incentives are found to be much smaller than those of the trade policies or the fundamental trends in macroeconomic variables such as the movement of the real exchange rate and the real wage rate.     

Price determinants in top-quality e-auctioned specialty coffees

We analyze the price determinants of specialty coffees traded at e-auctions. We hypothesize that since specialty coffees are a highly differentiated product, prices will be determined by both sensory and reputation attributes. To test our hypotheses, we estimate a hedonic price function using data from Central and South American e-auctions and calculate the implicit prices of sensory and reputation attributes. The results show that market clearing prices are a function of sensory characteristics and reputation variables including third-party quality ranking, country of origin, coffee variety, and quantity. The additional attribute information disclosed at e-auctions results in substantially higher prices relative to conventional commodity coffee market prices.     

PRODUCTION INTERRELATIONSHIPS IN SRI LANKAN PEASANT AGRICULTURE

Technical change and the extent to which commodity supplies and input demands are interrelated in Sri Lankan peasant agriculture are explored in this paper. Using a multiple-product dual model, a seemingly unrelated system of product supply and input demand equations is estimated for four crops and four variable inputs. Restrictions based on competitive behaviour and a twice continuously-differentiable production function are maintained in the non-linear least squares estimation. A number of important interrelationships in individual product supplies and input demands are identified, further documenting the need to account for intercommodity production relationships in econometric and simulation studies and in policy formulation. Non-joint production and Hicksneutral technical change are both rejected.     

Exchange rate devaluation,monetary policy and wages: A general equilibrium analysis for Chile

A range of devaluation, monetary and wage policy mixes are analysed for the Chilean economy using a 10 sector comparative static model built along neoclassical lines. The model, while focusing on the real side of the economy, also contains a simple monetary sector. Quantifying the short-run implications of each policy mix for key macroeconomic and sectoral variables enables judgements to be made about the effectiveness of each mix in reaching specified targets and their feasibility. Money wage flexibility downwards is crucial if balance of trade and employment targets are to be achieved with lower domestic inflation and a smaller nominal devaluation.     

A three-sector model for real property tax incedence

This article presents a new three-sector general-equilibrium model for tax incidence analysis. The model differs from the usual two-sector model not only in the addition of an extra sector but also in abandoning the classical tradition of specifying with capital and labor arguments. The property tax in the model is specified as a partial tax applying to real — but not to personal — property used in the production of housing services and other goods.The model is quantified by selecting numerical values for its parameters in order to estimate percentage changes in the endogenous variables caused by the introduction of an exogenous property tax. The major effect of the tax is to make real property relatively more expensive and to cause less real property to be produced.