Een onderzoek naar de invloed van monetaire factoren op het reële groeiproces in enkele traditionele theorieën van economische groei (III)

Summary This is the third of three successive papers on the problem of to what extent monetary phenomena influence the real variables in a process of economic growth. In the first paper the conditions under which money is neutral was examined. The second was devoted to the impact of money in a neo-classical growth model. In the present paper the real neo-keynesian growth model of Harrod is taken as a starting-point. This is a special case of the neo-classical model, for the introduction of a constant rate of interest in a neoclassical production structure yields a constant capital-labor ratio as a result. According to the Harrod model, capital scarcity or capital abundance will generally prevail. Stable growth is a mere accident. Subsequently, the assumption of a constant rate of interest is relaxed. The rate is now assumed to be dependent on the national product and the money supply. This makes the model more flexible. Control of the growth rate of the money supply is then an instrument in the hands of the monetary authorities for the purpose of preventing situations of capital scarcity or abundance. In the case of capital scarcity, the growth rate of the money supply has to be raised. Paradoxically enough, the result of this will be that the rate of interest rises. In a situation of capital abundance the opposite is true. A steady and stable growth path is possible, because the monetary authorities are in a position to let the rate of interest take a value at which full employment prevails.      

Context Variables as Cognitive Effort Modulators in Decision Making Using an Alternative-Based Processing Strategy

This paper examines how a number of decision context variables affect the cognitive effort required for decision making on dichotomical choice tasks. Subjects are trained in the use of a strategy in which information processing is alternative-based. The correlation between the attributes of the alternatives and the mean and variance of the difference between the attributes is manipulated. The results show that the effort needed for decision making increases as the mean of the differences decreases. Yet, neither the variance of the differences nor the correlation context affect the decision making effort in this type of strategies.     

New Contractual Relationships in the Agency Worker Market: The Case of the UK's National Health Service

In recent years, there has been a trend towards the negotiation of closer contractual relationships between employers and employment agencies. However, little is known about this change or its likely consequences. In theory, such relationships can benefit employers by lowering fees and also reducing many of the hidden costs associated with the use of agency staff by improving the effectiveness of placement matching. Against this is the suggestion that formal partnerships are unlikely to have a positive impact given the uncertainty of demand for temporary labour and broader tendencies for risk displacement in buyer–supplier networks. In this article, our aim is to explore this matter focusing on recent developments in the UK's National Health Service. We find that new contractual relationships such as framework agreements and master vendor contracts are having mixed effects. While they serve to reduce direct costs for employers in the short term, this has been at the expense of relationship building and improvements in placement matching. These developments are also found to have some potentially negative consequences for the agency workforce itself.     

Costs and Structure of Technology in the Italian Water Industry

This paper analyses from an empirical point of view the technology underlying the Water industry. Firstly, we study the impact of environmental and quality factors on the production process. Secondly, different functional forms are analysed in order to represent the technology. Overall results show that the coefficient of hedonic variables are significant and that the best functional form is the transcendental logarithmic one. Finally, evidence on return to scale depends on the functional form adopted and on the inclusion ofhedonic variables.     

Forecasting high resolution electricity demand data with additive models including smooth and jagged components

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental instrument in the efficient operational management and planning of electric utilities. Emerging smart grid technologies pose new challenges and opportunities. Although load forecasting at the aggregate level has been extensively studied, electrical load forecasting at fine-grained geographical scales of households is more challenging. Among existing approaches, semi-parametric generalized additive models (GAM) have been increasingly popular due to their accuracy, flexibility, and interpretability. Their applicability is justified when forecasting is addressed at higher levels of aggregation, since the aggregated load pattern contains relatively smooth additive components. High resolution data are highly volatile, forecasting the average load using GAM models with smooth components does not provide meaningful information about the future demand. Instead, we need to incorporate irregular and volatile effects to enhance the forecast accuracy. We focus on the analysis of such hybrid additive models applied on smart meters data and show that it leads to improvement of the forecasting performances of classical additive models at low aggregation levels.     

Comparing Digital Strategies and Social Media Usage in B2B and B2C Industries in Spain

ABSTRACT

Using 285 responses obtained in a survey of high- and middle-level managers of firms located in Spain and by implementing clustering techniques, we identify differences in the conception and adoption of a digital strategy and the use of social media. A driver for these differences is represented by whether companies are adopting a B2C or a B2B business model. Specifically, B2B companies are slower to generate an overall digital strategy compared to B2C firms. Moreover, B2B firms adopting a digital strategy are prioritizing the use of more professionally oriented platforms (e.g., LinkedIn), while B2C firms are favoring the use of more socially oriented services (e.g., Facebook). Additionally, we find that those B2C companies without a clear digital strategy are nonetheless significantly using social media, particularly social networks, while B2B companies are delaying the use of social media until conceiving a clear digital strategy.     

The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion

This paper investigates the determinants of the volatility of fiscal policy discretion. Using a linear dynamic panel data model for 113 countries from 1980 to 2006 and a system‐GMM estimator, we find that an increase in the number of episodes of government crisis, less democracy and presidentialist systems raise the volatility of the discretionary component of fiscal policy. Additionally, we show that countries with larger populations and less flexible exchange rate systems are more insured against uncertainty about the conduct of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various regional dummy variables, different subsets of countries and the presence of high inflation and crisis episodes.     

The selection of migrants and returnees in Romania

This paper uses census and survey data to identify the wage earning ability and the selection of recent Romanian migrants and returnees on observable characteristics. We construct measures of selection across skill groups and estimate the average and the skill‐specific premium for migration and return for three typical destinations of Romanian migrants after 1990. Once we account for migration costs, we find evidence that the selection and sorting of migrants are driven by different returns to skills in countries of destination. Our identification strategy for the effects of work experience abroad permits a cautious causal interpretation of the premium to return migration. This premium increases with migrants' skills and drives the positive selection of returnees relative to non‐migrants. Based on the compatibility of the results with rationality in the migration decisions, we simulate a rational‐agent model of education, migration and return. Our results suggest that for a source country like Romania relatively high rates of temporary migration might have positive long‐run effects on average skills and wages.