Real Business Cycle Models: An Introduction

In this article we present a simple real business cycle (RBC) model, in order to show that these models capture many of the features of business cycles in the real economy. While these models are very abstract, we argue that they are a useful way of thinking about the macro-economy. RBC models have also been influential in refocusing attention on supply issues in macroeconomics, after a long postwar focus on aggregate demand management in Australia and most other western economies. Policies such as structural reform and labour market reform are clearly aimed at influencing the supply side of the economy and productivity, and can be understood within the framework of RBC theory. RBC models have developed rapidly recently, yet there remains a good deal of misunderstanding about the methods and aims of these models. In this article we present a review of the literature and examine a simple model, using graphical techniques, to clarify some issues. We also argue that these models, while having limitations, have caused a fruitful re-examination of supply issues in economics, after the almost exclusive focus on aggregate demand in macroeconomics until the late 1970s.     

Current issues in US transportation politics

Les transports en commun deviennent rapidement un exemple critique de la crise générale des politiques de l'état dans la production et la distribution des équipements collectifs. La destruction antérieure des transports en commun aux Etats Unis par les intérêts de l'automobile, ainsi que les contraintes de l'énérgic, de l'utilisation du sol, et du chômage, produisent une situation selon laquelle diverses fractions du capital se regroupent dans une coalition afin de déterminer une politique future des transports. Une telle politique doit tant bien que mal satisfaire les besoins souvent contradictoires du transport, le résultat d'un développement urbain structuré autour de la dominance de l'automobile. Ces besoins sont soulignés ici-bas. Cet article présente les diverses options considérées actuellement ainsi que les contradictions survenant de chaque direction proposée. Les divisions à l'intérieur de la classe capitaliste sur ces options sont aussi présentés. Finalement, une brève considération est donnée aux mouvements sociaux urbains passés et présents organisés autour des questions de transport, ainsi que les problèmes auxquels ces mouvements doivent faire face dans les luttes futures autour de cet enjeu critique.     

An econometric model of a retail firm

Existing models of retail resource allocation generally specify response functions in a somewhat ad hoc manner. These are not usually derived from an explicit model of consumer maximization, and they generally do not explicitly consider the supply side of the market. This paper shows how the model of Ehrlich and Fisher (1982) can be used to provide insights into the proper specification of these functions. We illustrate the application of this model on data from a retail chain; our application extends work in Ratchford and Stoops (1988) to the demand side of the market. Potential areas of application of the model are to understanding the demand for labor and advertising services by consumers, and to the measurement of retail productivity.     

SYNERGY,DIVERSIFICATION, AND INCENTIVE EFFECTS OF CORPORATE MERGER ON BONDHOLDER WEALTH: SOME EVIDENCE

The theory relating to the effects of a merger on the wealth of bondholders implies countervailing results. On the one hand, bondholders might share the benefits of operating synergies and diversification with shareholders. On the other hand, they might suffer from an incentive effect—the expropriation by the shareholders. Studies by Kim and McConnell (1977) and Asquith and Kim (1982) find that the wealth of bondholders is not significantly affected by conglomerate mergers. Using a more inclusive sample and a different methodology, this study finds that the wealth of bondholders is affected positively by merger, which implies synergies to bondholders and/or a diversification effect. Furthermore, an incentive effect would be inferred if leverage were increased substantially after merger and if the size of the increase were inversely related to bondholder gains. Since neither of these events is observed, this study finds no evidence for an incentive effect.     

A sociological view on why firms differ

Much theory and research that apparently seeks to explain why firms differ actually addresses the question of why successful firms differ. This article explains why the two questions are different and explores some of the implications of this difference for the field of strategic management. A wide variety of organizational and economic theories are reviewed in this context, including contingency theory, resource dependence theory, process models, dispositional models, transaction cost economics, organizational ecology and institutional theory. Further discussion considers why heterogeneity persists at the firm level when it becomes apparent that only certain types of firms will succeed.     

Regulatory risk,investment, and welfare

This paper assesses the allocative and distributional effects of uncertain regulatory constraints on rate of return, on price, and on competitive entry. A profit-maximizing firm responds to rate-of-return risk by substituting variable factors for sunk investment, but expands capacity when faced with either price risk or entry risk. Investors gain from the elimination of regulatory risk, a result that parallels Peltzman's contention that regulators could raise investor wealth by reducing risk. Consumers benefit from price and entry risk, but only under severe restrictions on tastes and technology. An inherent feature of government intervention, regulatory risk should be taken into account when comparing alternative policies for regulating (or deregulating) an industry.     

Estimation in sequential decisionmaking models: A methodological note

The purpose of this note is to develop an appropriate model of behavior and a statistical technique for estimating it for individuals who make sequential decisions under uncertainty. The distinctive aspect of this model is that differences among individuals are reflected in their behavior rather than being swept into the error term.     

An introduction to the Millennium Project

The pace, complexity, and globalization of change requires attention to the future. The change of millennia — the coming of the year 2001 — provides an opportunity, a psychological focus, for a global review of past achievements and problems and a unique chance to assess and reflect on future issues and opportunities.Unfortunately, there is as yet no mechanism or information utility to support a worldwide effort to study past achievements and problems or future issues and opportunities. Although there are many individual, isolated, special purpose, and one-time study efforts underway, there is no international system that can provide coherence or continuity to these studies, including feedback and sharing of information, and, in particular, the systematic exploration of future possibilities and policy alternatives. With growing interest in the future, the spread of instantaneous and global communications, the advent of powerful new nondeterministic modeling techniques, the ability to evoke, capture, and share information and perceptions with systematic questioning techniques and software, the proliferation of data bases, and knowledge visualization, it is now possible for futurists, scholars and others around the world to interact globally and take a fresh look at the future possibilities and policies in ways not previously possible.As the World Bank provides an ongoing system for research and feedback to improve economic policy, so too the United Nations University could provide an ongoing system for the improvement of futures research and its application to the policy process. According to a series of interviews, questionnaires, and meetings with leading futurists and scholars around the world, the proposed “Millenium Project” has the potential to become such a system.This study had as its principal objective determining the design of an information system that could effectively tap contributors, worldwide, to focus on lessons of the past that bear on world issues and the potential of future developments for intensifying or mitigating these and future issues. The first phase of the feasibility study was both methodological and substantive. Worldwide panels of experts contributed their judgments about the method or process of organizing the project; and the system that emerged from this interaction was applied in a prototype study to the issues of growing world population and the environment.During the first phase of the feasibility study, we found that:

1. 1. The Millennium Project is feasible and likely to be helpful to many institutions in examining and resolving policy issues at several levels. An overview of the project design and objectives appears in Section 2 of this article.

2. 2. Organizations that have an issues scanning function, or have a mandate to keep abreast of a broad range of futures thinking, have a need for access to a non-political, scholarly, and international system of future studies. Such organizations have requested continued participation in the second and third phase of this feasibility study, as well as establishing formal relations with the full Millennium Project.

3. 3. While several questions remain, the design features of a system to collect judgments using the Delphi process that were suggested by the international panel (outlined elsewhere in this report) form a straight forward operational system. Among the remaining questions are the design and use of international information systems and data bases, integration with quantitative techniques such as system modeling, the requirements for special study teams, and institutionalization and financial support. The design of the operational system is described in detail in Section 3 of this report.

4. 4. Cost estimates have been made for establishing international panels and collecting and analyzing information they provide using the Delphi process. Several assumptions are required. If a maximum of four topics are addressed in a particular year, each of the four panels consists of 150–200 people, the staff is kept to a base of three people with an additional 1.5 per panel, and advisors are paid an honorarium of $1.500, then the cost of this element of the full scale Project is likely to be approximately $900,000 per year. While communications modes are important in terms of timing and information access, the costs of communications are the smallest of the Project's cost elements. Detail of our cost estimates appear in Section 7 of this report.

This is not the final feasibility study report, but only a report on part of Phase I. As such, it contains our initial findings about how the Project might be organized. We welcome comments from the reader. Please consider this as work in progress.