Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004 Taylor, Lance. 2004. Reconstructing macroeconomics. structuralist proposals and critique of the mainstream, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967 Goodwin, R.M. 1967. “A growth cycle”. In Socialism, capitalism and economic growth, Edited by: Feinstein, C.H. Cambridge, , UK: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008 Kauermann, G., Teuber, T. and Flaschel, P. 2008. “Estimating loops and cycles using penalized splines”. Bielefeld: CEM working paper.  [Google Scholar]).     

What would Don Draper do? Rules for restoring the contemporary agency mojo

What are the timeless truths of advertising? How can agency leaders manage their teams, their creative talent, and clients? To answer these and other questions, the mythology of the ‘Golden Age of Advertising’ is examined and analyzed herein. Specifically, using ad man Don Draper—protagonist of the fictional, but already culturally iconic, television series Mad Men—as a mythic archetype, lessons are extracted for contemporary advertising practitioners. Ten timeless rules are proposed and explicated in the areas of (1) managing intra-agency leadership processes, (2) managing creative processes, and (3) managing client relationships.     

Is off-farm income reforming the farm? Evidence from Mexico

Does access to off-farm income complement or compete with agricultural production? This article explores the effect of off-farm income on agricultural production activities, using data from the 2003 Mexico National Rural Household Survey. We first discuss the theoretical conditions under which access to off-farm income may influence production in an agricultural household model. Instrumental-variable (IV) estimation methods are then used to test whether agricultural production activities, technologies, and input use differ between households with and without access to off-farm income. We find that off-farm income has a negative effect on agricultural output and the use of family labor on the farm, but a positive impact on the demand for purchased inputs. There is also a slight efficiency gain in households with access to off-farm income. Findings offer insights into how household production evolves as rural households increasingly engage in off-farm income activities.     

Resource utilization and charges of patients with and without diagnosed venous thromboembolism during primary hospitalization and after elective inpatient surgery: a retrospective study

Aims: To assess incremental charges of patients experiencing venous thromboembolisms (VTE) across various types of elective inpatient surgical procedures with administration of general anesthesia in the US.

Methods: The authors performed a retrospective study utilizing data from a nationwide hospital operational records database from July 2014 through June 2015 to compare a group of inpatients experiencing a VTE event post-operatively to a propensity score matched group of inpatients who did not experience a VTE. Patients included in the analysis had a hospital admission for an elective inpatient surgical procedure with the use of general anesthesia. Procedures of the heart, brain, lungs, and obstetrical procedures were excluded, as these procedures often require a scheduled ICU stay post-operatively. Outcomes examined included VTE events during hospitalization, length of stay, unscheduled ICU transfers, number of days spent in the ICU if transferred, 3- and 30-day re-admissions, and total hospital charges incurred.

Results: The study included 17,727 patients undergoing elective inpatient surgical procedures. Of these, 36 patients who experienced a VTE event were matched to 108 patients who did not. VTE events occurred in 0.2% of the study population, with most events occurring for patients undergoing total knee replacement. VTE patients had a mean total hospital charge of $60,814 vs $48,325 for non-VTE patients, resulting in a mean incremental charge of $11,979 (p?<?.05). Compared to non-VTE patients, VTE patients had longer length of stay (5.9 days vs 3.7 days, p?<?.001), experienced a higher rate of 3-day re-admissions (3 vs 0 patients) and 30-day re-admissions (7 vs 2 patients).

Conclusions: Patients undergoing elective inpatient surgical procedures with general anesthesia who had a VTE event during their primary hospitalization had a significantly longer length of stay and significantly higher total hospital charges than comparable patients without a VTE event.     

Bioeconomic analysis of protected area use in fisheries management*

Protected areas in fishery management have been suggested to hedge management failures and variation in harvests. In this paper, a stochastic bioeconomic model of a two-species fishery in the Manning Bioregion is used to test the performance of protected areas as a management tool in a fishery. The establishment of a protected area is analysed under the assumption of heterogenous environments that are linked via density-dependent or sink-source stock dispersal relationships. The sensitivity of the results to different degrees of management is also explored. The model is applied to the Ocean Prawn Trawl, and Ocean Trap and Line fisheries within Manning Bioregion in New South Wales, Australia. The focus of the study is placed on the biological and institutional characteristics that yield benefits to the fishery. It was found that protected area use in the Manning Bioregion is likely to have differing effects on the two fisheries examined, benefiting Ocean Trap and Line fishers but adversely affecting Ocean Prawn Trawl fishers. Overall, it is unlikely that protected area use will lead to an increase resource rent in the fishery.     

Localism and the Big Society: the asset transfer of leisure centres and libraries – fighting closures or empowering communities?

This paper critically examines the ‘asset transfer’ of leisure services from the public to the voluntary sector. Asset transfer might be theorised as ‘austerity localism’, in which volunteers are obliged to fill the gaps left by retreating public provision, or as ‘progressive localism’, which represents new opportunities through the localism and Big Society agendas to develop more locally responsive, cooperative and mutualist visions. In this way, asset transfer might overcome the limitations of the United Kingdom policies in which ‘Big Government’ is replaced by civic society. Drawing on qualitative interviews with key personnel (volunteers, managers and local authority officers) at 12 leisure facilities, a grounded assessment of the nuanced balance between ‘austerity localism’ and ‘progressive localism’ is provided, including three observations. First, the main impetus for transfer was cuts in local authority budgets which stimulated the emergence of local groups of volunteers. Secondly, the transfers themselves required interaction between local government and the volunteer groups; however, the nature of the relationship and support given varied and support was limited by austerity measures. Thirdly, volunteers do not automatically fill a gap left by the state: without support transfer viability relies on the financial and social capital among volunteer groups, and this is unevenly distributed. These findings suggest that the capacity for a ‘progressive localism’ to emerge through asset transfer is limited. However, where transfer has occurred, there are some progressive benefits of volunteer empowerment and a more flexible service.     

Issues in measuring success in community-based Indigenous tourism: elites,kin groups,social capital,gender dynamics and income flows

Tourism development is a key feature of the neoliberal economic development model. Through a mix of state and private investment, Indigenous communities in Mexico are encouraged to transform local cultural and environmental resources into tourist consumption sites. The process results in a shift toward reliance on tourism, in place of farming, leaving households with few alternative earning strategies amidst fluctuating tourist arrivals and income, confounding the relationship between tourism and sustainability and questioning the utility of tourism as a sustainable tool for development. This article analyses a community-based Indigenous tourism project in a rural Maya village in Mexico's Yucatan, and discusses strategies employed at household level to navigate the arrival of tourism. Funding agencies assessed this project based on a triple bottom line metric that accounts for ecological health, financial sustainability, and its relationship to local social capital; however, these fail to account for differences between local and non-local conceptions of authenticity, indigeneity, and success. From a social perspective, the project has exacerbated existing tensions and has arguably widened the gap between the politically and economically powerful and less powerful, marginalized families in the community. Questions about policy, governance systems, and elite domination and kin group control are raised.