Nowcasting with payments system data

We consider the potential usefulness of a large set of electronic payments data, comprising the values and numbers of both debit card transactions and cheques that clear through the banking system, for the problem of reducing the current-period forecast (‘nowcast’) loss for (the growth rates of) GDP and retail sales. The payments system variables capture a broad range of spending activity and are available on a very timely basis, making them suitable current indicators. We generate nowcasts of GDP and retail sales growth for a given month on seven different dates, over a period of two and a half months preceding the first official releases, which is the period over which nowcasts would be of interest. We find statistically significant evidence that payments system data can reduce the nowcast error for both GDP and retail sales growth. Both debit transaction and cheque clearance data are of value in reducing nowcast losses for GDP growth, although the latter are of little or no value when debit data are also included. For retail sales, cheque data appear to produce no further nowcast loss reductions, regardless of whether or not debit transactions are included in the nowcasting model.     

Alpha- and beta-characteristic functions in cooperative non-sidepayment games: An experimental test

This article investigates theories of payoff allocation in cooperative non-sidepayment games, that is, games where players can form coalitions and coordinate strategies but cannot redistribute payoffs via sidepayments. A labotatory experiment was conducted with 4-person, 3-strategy non-sidepayment games. The goal of this experiment was to ascertain which characteristic function, V_α(S) or V_β(S), provides the more accurate basis for payoff predictions from solution concepts. Predictions from each of three solution concepts (core, stable set, imputation set) were computed on the basis of both V_α(S) and V_β(S), making a total of six theories under test. The results showed two basic findings. First, for each of the three solutions, the prediction computed on the basis of V_α(S) was more accurate than the prediction computed from V_α(S). Second, the β-core was the most accurate of the six theories tested. Overall, these results support the view that V_β(S) is superior to V_α(S) as a basis for payoff predictions in cooperative non-sidepayment games.     

From spending to understanding: Analyzing customers by their spending behavior

In customer segmentation, a common strategy is to use individual differences as a predictor of future behavior. Recent advances in data management in large financial institutions give an unprecedented and potentially powerful source of data for identifying such differences. We show that spending data can substantially help target the direct marketing of financial products, and constitutes new information, not captured by demographics. In particular, a systematic combination of this independent source and more traditional measures can enhance the predictive power of marketing research and improve the relationship with customers as illustrated in a direct mailing selection method which substantially raises response rates.     

Politics of national tourism policy in Britain

Although tourism is increasingly viewed as an important issue for governments, analysis of the politics of tourism policy is less developed than in other areas of leisure policy. This article attempts to link developments in British tourism policy to wider policy contexts. The historic development of tourism policy from private interest group formation, through government subsidy to statutory status reflects patterns evident elsewhere in leisure. Similarly, the subsequent shift from pluralism through welfarism to economic realism in leisure is clearly reflected in the changing role of the national tourist boards in the last 25 years. Although private interest groups in tourism have benefited considerably from government intervention in the past, it seems that government has become progressively less inclined to treat tourism as a special case in recent years. It is argued that application of theoretical perspectives developed in the field of leisure policy can help to illuminate the processes driving the development of tourism policy as well.     

Modeling marketplace behavior

Marketplace behavior refers to aspects of the purchase behavior of individuals and firms that leads to marketplace demand. It is characterized by the presence of many variables, most of which have nothing to do with a specific venture or specific consumer. This paper discusses three challenges of analysis commonly found in quantitative models of marketplace data: heterogeneous consumers, goal-directed behaviors, and the selective attention to some but not all variables in extended models of behavior. Bayesian solutions to these challenges are discussed.     

The Deal Structuring Stage of the Venture Capitalist Decision‐Making Process: Exploring Confidence and Control*

This exploratory study examines the deal structuring stage of the venture capitalist decision‐making process. Here, the primary issues of concern are investor confidence and potential control of a venture in relation to the level of financing the investor provides and the structure with which the funding is delivered. Confidence comes in support of the entrepreneur, the venture itself, or a combination of the two, prior to capital transfer, but after the initial “invest or not invest” decision has already occurred. Findings support a multicriteria perspective of the pre‐investment decision‐making process and a distinct difference between entrepreneur confidence and venture confidence in the deal structuring stage.     

Corporate Political Donations: Influences from Directors’ Networks

Motivated by contemporary debates concerning whether directors inappropriately deploy corporate funds for corporate political donations and the limited research into managerial influence on corporate political donations, we examine the impact of director influences from a network perspective. Using a sample of large listed Australian corporations and their political party donation activity during 2000–2007, we find that both the professional and non-professional networks of directors influence corporate political donations. We observe these influences in relation to donations at the federal and state levels, and with respect to the choice of recipient political parties.     

On the edge: Perceptions and responses to life imbalance

How do experienced managers build and maintain life balance when confronted with day-to-day demands that complicate their lives and drive them further and further into the realm of life imbalance? Drawing from comprehensive interviews with members of managerial couples, we provide a keen view of the personal and elusive nature of managerial balance. Digging deeper, we uncover and describe the signals or cues of imbalance, and explore the fundamental steps taken to regain lost balance.     

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

The emergence of Bayesian methodology has facilitated respondent-level conjoint models, and deriving utilities from choice experiments has become very popular among those modeling product line decisions or new product introductions. This review begins with a paradox of why experimental choices should mirror market behavior despite clear differences in content, structure and motivation. It then addresses ways to design the choice tasks so that they are more likely to reflect market choices. Finally, it examines ways to model the results of the choice experiments to better mirror both underlying decision processes and potential market choices. Co-chairs. Author order is alphabetical.     

Estimating the U.S. Import Demand for Melons: A Dynamic Analysis Approach

The United States is one of the world's leading consumers as well as one of the world's leading producers of melons. However, U.S. melons are produced only from May through December. In order to supplement the domestic demand and make melons available year-round, the United States imports melons from Latin American countries. This article analyzes the U.S. demand for imported fresh and frozen melons using monthly data on import volumes and values. A static and a dynamic linear Almost Ideal Demand System are estimated using Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). The estimated parameters are used to estimate the short- and long-run price and expenditure elasticities.