Alpha- and beta-characteristic functions in cooperative non-sidepayment games: An experimental test

This article investigates theories of payoff allocation in cooperative non-sidepayment games, that is, games where players can form coalitions and coordinate strategies but cannot redistribute payoffs via sidepayments. A labotatory experiment was conducted with 4-person, 3-strategy non-sidepayment games. The goal of this experiment was to ascertain which characteristic function, V_α(S) or V_β(S), provides the more accurate basis for payoff predictions from solution concepts. Predictions from each of three solution concepts (core, stable set, imputation set) were computed on the basis of both V_α(S) and V_β(S), making a total of six theories under test. The results showed two basic findings. First, for each of the three solutions, the prediction computed on the basis of V_α(S) was more accurate than the prediction computed from V_α(S). Second, the β-core was the most accurate of the six theories tested. Overall, these results support the view that V_β(S) is superior to V_α(S) as a basis for payoff predictions in cooperative non-sidepayment games.     

Linking technical change to research effort: an examination of aggregation and spillovers effects

We used a disaggregate approach to examine investment efficiency of wheat breeding research in India. India's total research effort comprizes 20 research programs spread across 50 experiment stations. A technology spillover matrix was constructed for both potential and actual spillovers. Spillovers and free‐riding were dominant characteristics of technical change during the period studied. Although the aggregate rate of return to wheat improvement research in India was estimated to be 55%, eight programs were found to have earned a negative rate of return when spillins were taken into account. Research output is concentrated on a few strong programs. The two strongest programs generated 75% of all the technical change benefits, even though they claimed just 22% of research resources. These two programs include a significant degree of overlap, while on the other hand many farmers were not reached by any of the programs – 56 and 78% of rainfed and durum area, respectively, in 1990 was still sown with pre‐1976 varieties.     

An Economic Analysis of the Returns to Canadian Swine Research: 1974–97

This paper reports a new set of estimates of the returns to swine research in Canada. These estimates are obtained using Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada's Canadian Regional Agricultural Model (CRAM). Positive Mathematical Programming is incorporated into the model for use in this study. The CRAM allows the effects of supply shifts from technological change in the hog industry to interact with product and factor market conditions in the rest of Canadian agriculture. Extensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the robustness of the return estimates under variations in some of the key assumptions employed in the analysis. The costs of public and private sector swine research are estimated. Public sector research costs are inclusive of the marginal excess burden of taxation. Overall, the estimated benefits from Canadian swine research are high relative to the estimated costs for the time period considered. Previous estimates of the returns to Canadian swine research were obtained by Huot et al. (1989) with a partial equilibrium model that did not allow for intra‐sectoral resource use adjustments. The estimated returns obtained in the present study are generally higher than those obtained by Huot et al. For example, the estimates obtained from the direct application of the econometrically estimated supply function in this study gave an internal rate of return of about 124% and a benefit‐cost ratio of 22.4 to 1. Huot et al reported comparable estimates of about 43% for the internal rate of return and 6–7 to 1 for the benefit‐cost ratio. The differences in returns are not solely attributable to the use of a multi‐market versus a single‐market partial equilibrium approach. There are also differences in the estimates of the marginal excess burden of taxation between the two studies. L'analyse que void présente une nouvelle série d'estimations quant au rendement de la recherche porcine au Canada. Ces estimations dérivent du Modèle d'analyse régionale de l'agriculture du Canada (MARAC) du ministère canadien de l'Agriculture et de l'Agroalimentaire. Aux fins de la présente étude, on avait intégré au modèle une programmation mathématique positive. Le MARAC autorise l'interaction entre les retombées d'une modification de l'offre attribuable au virage technologique de l'industrie porcine et les conditions du marché des produits et des facteurs dans le reste de l'agriculture canadienne. Les auteurs ont effectué une analyse de sensibilité poussée en vue d'établir la robustesse de leurs estimations quand variaient quelques‐unes des principales hypotheses de l'analyse. On a estimé le coût de la recherche sur les pores poursuivie par les secteurs public et privé. Dans le secteur public, le coût de la recherche incluait une charge fiscale légérement excessive. Dans l'ensemble, la recherche sur les porcs entreprise au Canada a rapporté beaucoup comparativement à ce qu'elle a coûté pendant la période à l'étude. Les estimations antérieures, établies par Huot et ses collaborateurs (1989), venaient d'un modèle àéquilibre partiel ne permettant aucun ajustement pour l'utilisation intra‐sectorielle des ressources. Les revenus estimés ici sont généralement plus élevés que ceux de Huot et de ses collaborateurs. Ainsi, une application directe de l'offre estimée par des méthodes économétriques à l'analyse donne un taux de rendement interne d'environ 124 % et un indice de rentabilité de 22,4 pour 1. À titre de comparaison, Huot et ses collaborateurs rapportent des résultats d'environ 43 % pour le taux de rendement interne et de 6 à 7 pour 1 en ce qui concerne l'indice de rentabilité. Pareil écart ne résulte pas uniquement du choix d'un modèle àéquilibre partiel reposant sur plusieurs marchés au lieu d'un seul; on relève aussi des variations dans l'estimation du léger excès de la charge fiscale entre les deux études.     

From spending to understanding: Analyzing customers by their spending behavior

In customer segmentation, a common strategy is to use individual differences as a predictor of future behavior. Recent advances in data management in large financial institutions give an unprecedented and potentially powerful source of data for identifying such differences. We show that spending data can substantially help target the direct marketing of financial products, and constitutes new information, not captured by demographics. In particular, a systematic combination of this independent source and more traditional measures can enhance the predictive power of marketing research and improve the relationship with customers as illustrated in a direct mailing selection method which substantially raises response rates.     

Politics of national tourism policy in Britain

Although tourism is increasingly viewed as an important issue for governments, analysis of the politics of tourism policy is less developed than in other areas of leisure policy. This article attempts to link developments in British tourism policy to wider policy contexts. The historic development of tourism policy from private interest group formation, through government subsidy to statutory status reflects patterns evident elsewhere in leisure. Similarly, the subsequent shift from pluralism through welfarism to economic realism in leisure is clearly reflected in the changing role of the national tourist boards in the last 25 years. Although private interest groups in tourism have benefited considerably from government intervention in the past, it seems that government has become progressively less inclined to treat tourism as a special case in recent years. It is argued that application of theoretical perspectives developed in the field of leisure policy can help to illuminate the processes driving the development of tourism policy as well.     

Modeling marketplace behavior

Marketplace behavior refers to aspects of the purchase behavior of individuals and firms that leads to marketplace demand. It is characterized by the presence of many variables, most of which have nothing to do with a specific venture or specific consumer. This paper discusses three challenges of analysis commonly found in quantitative models of marketplace data: heterogeneous consumers, goal-directed behaviors, and the selective attention to some but not all variables in extended models of behavior. Bayesian solutions to these challenges are discussed.     

The Deal Structuring Stage of the Venture Capitalist Decision‐Making Process: Exploring Confidence and Control*

This exploratory study examines the deal structuring stage of the venture capitalist decision‐making process. Here, the primary issues of concern are investor confidence and potential control of a venture in relation to the level of financing the investor provides and the structure with which the funding is delivered. Confidence comes in support of the entrepreneur, the venture itself, or a combination of the two, prior to capital transfer, but after the initial “invest or not invest” decision has already occurred. Findings support a multicriteria perspective of the pre‐investment decision‐making process and a distinct difference between entrepreneur confidence and venture confidence in the deal structuring stage.     

Corporate Political Donations: Influences from Directors’ Networks

Motivated by contemporary debates concerning whether directors inappropriately deploy corporate funds for corporate political donations and the limited research into managerial influence on corporate political donations, we examine the impact of director influences from a network perspective. Using a sample of large listed Australian corporations and their political party donation activity during 2000–2007, we find that both the professional and non-professional networks of directors influence corporate political donations. We observe these influences in relation to donations at the federal and state levels, and with respect to the choice of recipient political parties.     

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

The emergence of Bayesian methodology has facilitated respondent-level conjoint models, and deriving utilities from choice experiments has become very popular among those modeling product line decisions or new product introductions. This review begins with a paradox of why experimental choices should mirror market behavior despite clear differences in content, structure and motivation. It then addresses ways to design the choice tasks so that they are more likely to reflect market choices. Finally, it examines ways to model the results of the choice experiments to better mirror both underlying decision processes and potential market choices. Co-chairs. Author order is alphabetical.     

Estimating the U.S. Import Demand for Melons: A Dynamic Analysis Approach

The United States is one of the world's leading consumers as well as one of the world's leading producers of melons. However, U.S. melons are produced only from May through December. In order to supplement the domestic demand and make melons available year-round, the United States imports melons from Latin American countries. This article analyzes the U.S. demand for imported fresh and frozen melons using monthly data on import volumes and values. A static and a dynamic linear Almost Ideal Demand System are estimated using Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). The estimated parameters are used to estimate the short- and long-run price and expenditure elasticities.