Zur Entscheidung y>y0 aufgrund der Messung einer korrelierten Variablen

Zusammenfassung Es wird eine optimale Strategie im Sinne des minimalen erwarteten Verlustes für die beiden Entscheidungeny>y _o undyy _o aufgrund der Messungen einer mitY positiv korrelierten, einfacher und/oder billiger zugänglichen ZufallsvariablenX abgeleitet. Dabei wird angenommen, daßX undY nach einer bivariaten Normalverteilung mit bekannten Parametern verteilt sind und die Entscheidungyy _o getroffen wird, wennx größer ist als ein zu bestimmendesx _o, und die Entscheidungy>y _o, wennx gleich oder kleiner als diesesx _o ist. Für die Bestimmung des optimalenx _o werden zunächst die Kosten für die beiden Fehlentscheidungen jeweils als konstant vorausgesetzt, in einem weiteren Ansatz wird jedoch für die Mißklassifikationyy _o eine mity exponentiell wachsende Risikofunktion angenommen. Um die relative Häufigkeit der zu erwartenden Fehlklassifikationen abschätzen zu können, wird schließlich die bedingte WahrscheinlichkeitP(x>x _o,y) errechnet.

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Summary An optimal strategy, with minimum expected risk, for the decisionsy>y _o oryy _o is constructed on the basis of the measurement of a variableX, which is positively correlated withY and can be measured more easily and/or with smaller expense. A bivariate normal distribution with known parameters is assumed forX andY. For the observationsx a limitx _o is aimed at, so that the decisionsy>y _o oryy _o are taken ifx>x orxx _o respectively. Optimal values ofx _o are first calculated under the assumption of constant losses for the two misclassifications (x>x _o ifyy _o andxx _o ify>y _o). In a further approach the loss for a wrong decisionyy _o is assumed to increase exponentially withy. Finally the conditional probabilityP (x>x _o\y) is calculated to get an assessment of the relative frequencies of wrong decisions to be expected.

     

Characteristics of agricultural input package users in communal clubs serviced by Acat in KwaZulu: A note

Characteristics of communal club members who use input packages are studied using a survey of communal clubs serviced by Africa Co‐operative Action Trust (Acat) in KwaZulu during 1989. Discriminant analysis shows that full input package adopters tend to belong to older clubs, have less formal savings and receive more visits each year from KwaZulu Department of Agriculture (KDA) extension officers. They also have a greater proportion of land under sugar‐cane, larger farm sizes and a higher rand monetary value of livestock.

Members of older clubs benefit from greater club experience in ordering inputs and liquidity for securing discounts on bulk orders. Clubs also enable scarce KDA extension manpower resources to be used more effectively by focusing extension efforts on groups rather than individual farmers. Sugar‐cane production probably indicates member willingness to innovate and the availability of funds to buy complete input packages for other crops. Increased access to land promotes input package adoption which can raise agricultural productivity. Development of institutional arrangements for a land rental market in KwaZulu should be considered. Higher monetary values of livestock reflect Increased ability to bear risk associated with technology adoption and that adopters have the means to purchase input packages     

There is relevance in the classroom: Analysis of present methods of teaching business ethics

In 1988 the Journal of Business Ethics published a paper by David Mathison entitled Business Ethics Cases and Decision Models: A Call for Relevancy in the Classroom. Mathison argued that the present methods of teaching business ethics may be inappropriate for MBA students. He believes that faculty are teaching at one decision-making level and that students are and will be functioning on another (lower) level. The purpose of this paper is to respond to Mathison's arguments and offer support for the present methods and materials used to teach Master level ethics classes. The support includes suggested class discussion ideas and assignments.Victoria K. Strong is a graduate student at Bentley College. She returned to school to pursue a Master of Science in Accountancy after working in the engineering profession for 12 years. She received her B.S. in Mechanical Engineering in 1984. Her business experience includes positions as Mechanical Design Engineer and Unit Supervisor of an engineering development laboratory. Alan N. Hoffman is an Associate Professor of Management at Bentley College. He received his DBA from Indiana University. Dr. Hoffman's writing has been published in the Academy of Management Journal and Human Relations.The authors would like to thank Carolyn Colt and the entire spring 1988 MG520-class for their valuable contributions.     

Identification and Measurement of Australian Consumer Sentiment

This article was prepared by Dr L. V. Defris and J. S. McDonnell of the Institute research staff. The authors wish to thank Professor R. F. Henderson and Dr P. J. Sheehan for their helpful comments.     

A brief study of age specific birth proportions,Japan and Singapore

The suitability of age-specific birth proportions (ASBP), or percentage distribution of births, as a rough and ready index of fertility change was analyzed by establishing a theoretical framework for its limitations and uses. The discussion suggested that the utility of ASBP as an indicator of fertility change depends on the characteristics and behavior of the population being considered. The concept was then empirically applied to birth trends in Japan and Singapore for 2 different time periods. Analysis suggested that ASBP trends in Japan reflected changes in age-specific fertility rates relative to general fertility rate as well as trends in parity distribution. The Singapore analysis was more complicated, raising different issues. As very limited empirical work has been done on ASBPs, the utility of ASBPs as an indicator of fertility change cannot be definitely ascertained. It was suggested however that ASBP trends may be applicable in countries where the age distribution of fertile-aged women is fairly stable. More empirical research should be done on ASBP trends in other countries, the behavior of A matrix as discussed in this paper, and useful empirical relationship of ASBP with other fertility measures.     

Exact finite sample properties of double k-class estimators in simultaneous equations

In our earlier paper [Srivastava, Agnihotri and Dwivedi (1980)] the dominance of double k-class over k-class with respect to exact mean squared error matrix criteria is established. It is observed that given a member of k-class, one can pick up a member of double k-class that will provide an improved estimator of the coefficients. This result prompted us to study the exact finite sample properties of the double k-class estimator. For this, we have considered a structural equation containing two endogenous variables and have investigated the properties of double k-class estimators of the coefficients of explanatory endogenous variables assuming characterizing scalars to be non-stochastic.     

Means of livelihood of city populations: a livelihood classification of the cities in India

Indian censuses provide useful data on livelihood. These data give a picture of the distribution of population deriving their living from different economic activities. According to the 1951 census, 73 cities in the country had a population over 1 lakh. These cities were, more or less, evenly distributed in the different States of the Union. Of the populations in these cities combined, nearly 40% derived its livelihood from the services and miscellaneous sources, approximately 1/4 from production other than cultivation, 1/4 from commerce, and the remaining few from transport and agriculture. These averages were fairly similar for large and small cities. Of the 32 largest cities which showed predominance of their population in 1 or more livelihood, there were about 10 in industrial-manufacturing, 6 in commerce, 9 in transport, and 10 in services. 2 of the 3 port cities, Bombay and Madras, were broad-based in employment while Calcutta was predominant in commerce. There was little uniformity in the livelihood patterns of capital cities.