Benford's Law and Fraud Detection: Facts and Legends

Abstract. Is Benford's law a good instrument to detect fraud in reports of statistical and scientific data? For a valid test, the probability of ‘false positives’ and ‘false negatives’ has to be low. However, it is very doubtful whether the Benford distribution is an appropriate tool to discriminate between manipulated and non‐manipulated estimates. Further research should focus more on the validity of the test and test results should be interpreted more carefully.     

美国对华“双反”措施中外部基准规则的适用问题

启用外部基准规则的相关问题是中美之间"双反"纠纷的关键问题之一,美国国内立法中关于外部基准的规定早已存在,并为世界其他国家及多边贸易规则所借鉴。美国也已经在对华的"双反"措施中大量使用外部基准,并经常辅以"不利可得事实"证据采信方法以消解外部基准规则的适用障碍。外部基准与替代国价格有明显的区别,但外部基准给中国带来的不利影响较之于替代国价格尤甚,其不仅冲淡了中国在"公共机构"和"重复计算"等问题上所取得的胜利效果,也将使今后中美之间的"双反"纠纷变得更为复杂。中国应尽早重视外部基准问题,从贸易规则、诉讼策略等方面做好充分的应对准备。     

Amending budget bills in the Russian State Duma

Abstract

Do budget bills change during review in the Russian State Duma? If so, by how much and why? Portrayals of the contemporary Federal Assembly as a ‘rubber stamp’ parliament would suggest that budget initiatives undergo no amendment during the formal period of legislative review. There is, however, evidence of bill change. The article’s primary goal is to present this surprising evidence, focusing on changes to spending figures in the 2002–2016 budget bills. The article also discusses why such changes are made, assessing hypotheses concerning legislator influence, technical updating and intra-executive conflict.     

The two ways of FDI R&D spillovers: evidence from the French manufacturing industry

Using French firm-level panel data, this study investigates R&D spillovers from inward foreign direct investment (FDI) with respect to both horizontal and vertical linkages (backward and forward). Using a Crepon, Duguet and Mairesse (CDM) model, we estimate an R&D-augmented Cobb–Douglas production function to assess the impact of R&D spillovers on firm performance. The results emphasize that international spillovers (from foreign affiliates to local firms) have a greater effect on firm performance than reverse spillovers (from local firms to foreign affiliates) and are more likely to be backward than forward. Moreover, the effect of backward spillovers depends on a firm’s absorptive capacity and is amplified in the case of outsourcing relationships.     

当前我国企业资本结构优化中的问题分析

一直以来，由干我国企业大箩是国有企业，企业资金都由国家统一管理，因此企业的财务部门更多的时候只是纯粹的会计计账。然而随着现代企业制度的建立，企业实行“自主经营、自负盈亏”，企业原有的资本结构中的问题逐渐在市场经济中凸现，成为了影响企业发展的一个重要因素。因此，对于我国企业来说，优化资本结构，合理筹措资金，使各种资金来源和资本配比保持合理的比例，是企业提升核心竞争力，提高经营绩效的必要条件，也是企业财务战略管理的核心。     

Possible explanations of no-synergy mergers and small firm effect by the Generalized Capital Asset Pricing Model

The Sharpe-Lintner Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the General Capital Asset Pricing Model (GCAPM) suggested by Levy (1978), Merton (1987), and Markowitz (1989) are compared and analyzed. Under the GCAPM we obtain the following main results: 1) the value additivity principle breaks down, which explains mergers and acquisitions; 2) beyond a certain limit, the profit from additional merger is negative; and 3) in a GCAPM equilibrium, small firms earn an abnormal profit in comparison to what is predicted by the CAPM. These results, which are indeed observed in the market, are fully consistent with the GCAPM, but are in contradiction to the CAPM.