Conditional distributions of earnings,wages and hours for blacks and whites

This paper provides new evidence on the conditional distributions of earnings, wages and hours for white and black males in the University of Michigan's Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Conditional hours and ln wages are approximately normal for both races. Conditional earnings are approximately normal for blacks while earnings are well approximated for whites by the product of normal hours and log-normal wages. The distribution of this product is derived here for the first time. Treating the marginal earnings distribution as the average of the conditional distributions, we use these results to predict poverty and affluence rates in our sample.     

Unanticipated money,output, and prices in the small economy

A macroeconomic model for an open economy experiencing both domestic and international monetary disturbances is given. Expectations are assumed to be rational. Particular attention is focused on the reduced form coefficients for unanticipated domestic and foreign monetary disturbances under alternative exchange rate regimes.     

Use of the principal component method in the maximum likelihood estimation procedure of the logit model

The maximum likelihood estimates of a qualitative response market are solved by an iterative procedure. When severe multicollinearity exists among the explanatory variables, this procedure may fail to converge. In this note, using a bank-failure model, we demonstrate how the principle component method can make the iterative procedure converge when it fails to do so in the untransformed model.     

Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses: Some further results

In Davidson and MacKinnon (1981), two of the present authors proposed a novel and very simple procedure for testing the specification of a nonlinear regression model against the evidence provided by a non-nested alternative. In this paper we extend their results in several directions. First, we relax a number of the assumptions of the previous paper; we admit the possibility that the nonlinear regression functions may depend on lagged dependent variables, and we do not require that the error terms be normally distributed. Second, we show how the earlier procedure may straightforwardly be generalized to the case where the two non-nested models involve different transformations of the dependent variable. Finally, we propose a simple procedure for testing non-nested linear regression models which have endogenous variables on the right-hand side, and have therefore been estimated by two-stage least squares.     

Indonesia's Great Leap Forward? Technology Development and Policy Issues

Technological development and technology policy are vital to Indonesian development in the 1990s and beyond. They are the subject of much public commentary and debate, there are major analytical and policy questions to be resolved, and the Indonesian government already allocates considerable resources to these activities. The purpose of this paper is to survey and assess Indonesia's industrial technological capability, and to highlight key policy issues, in the context of the large analytical and empirical literature on this subject for developing countries. Indonesia is a latecomer by East Asian industrial standards, and this is reflected in various technology indicators The paper suggests directions for effective technology policy.     

The effect of zoning on land value

Two types of zoning are identified: externality zoning, which is designed to achieve a Pareto efficient pattern of land use, and fiscal zoning, which is designed to accomplish some other objective. (The latter, for instance, may be aimed at minimizing the tax rate in a community.) The paper shows that it is not in general possible using a priori theory to predict the sign (positive or negative) of the effect of either of these forms of zoning on aggregate land value in a community. It is shown, however, that under plausible assumption it can be argued that zoning as currently practiced in many U. S. communities probably has the effect of lowering aggregate land values in the communities doing the zoning.     

Distortion of preferences and the Nash theory of bargaining

It is shown that in Nash bargaining over division of a single good, when agents are allowed to distort their von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions into any (weakly) concave form, reporting linear utility functions constitutes a unique dominant-strategy Nash equilibrium.