A theory of subjective compound lotteries

We develop a Savage-type model of choice under uncertainty in which agents identify uncertain prospects with subjective compound lotteries. Our theory permits issue preference; that is, agents may not be indifferent among gambles that yield the same probability distribution if they depend on different issues. Hence, we establish subjective foundations for the Anscombe-Aumann framework and other models with two different types of probabilities. We define second-order risk as risk that resolves in the first stage of the compound lottery and show that uncertainty aversion implies aversion to second-order risk which implies issue preference and behavior consistent with the Ellsberg paradox.     

Maximizing survival,growth and goal reaching under borrowing constraints

In this paper, we consider the survival, growth and goal reaching maximization problems treated in Browne [Math. Oper. Res., 1997, 22, 468–493] and solve them in a market constrained due to borrowing prohibition. To solve the problems, we first construct an auxiliary market introduced by Cvitanic and Karatzas [Ann. Appl. Probab., 1992, 2, 767–818] and then apply the dynamic programming approach. Via our solutions, an alternative approach is introduced in order to solve the problems defined under an auxiliary market.     

China's Foreign Trade: A “New Normal”

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, China's foreign trade has continued to grow faster than international trade, but its drivers are now different from those prevailing before. The participation of the Chinese economy in the global production chains through processing activities is no longer the main driver of its trade performance. The new driving force of change is ordinary trade, based mainly on local inputs and domestic demand. China, which played a major role in the globalization process as an export base for multinational companies, is now shifting to having a “normal” foreign trade system, which is more closely integrated into the domestic economy.     

Examing the effects of positive social labeling,time, and request sizes on compliance in a multistage marketing survey context

Following the lead of Reingen and Bearden (1983), this study examines the effectiveness of positive social labeling, particularly in conjunction with other factors, as a means of influencing verbal and behavioral compliance in a multistage marketing survey context. Such results offer a systematic extension to the labeling literature and provide further insight into labeling’s role as a practicable method of shaping and stimulating respondent behavior.     

Introduction to the Special Issue: The Bank Structure Conference through the years

This is a special issue dedicated to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition. Invited articles are from financial economists that have had long standing relationships with the conference. Additionally, the effectiveness of the conference in influencing public policy and the financial and economic literature is evaluated.     

A time preference measure of the social discount rate for the UK

In this study the social discount rate for the UK is estimated, the result compared with the Treasury approved rate and the main associated policy implications considered. A case is argued for reducing the official discount rate in appraisals involving all long-term social projects. The estimate of the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, an important component of the discount rate, is supported by plausible and statistically valid regression results. The need for further work relating to other major european countries is identified so that discount rate comparisons can be made on a consistent basis.     

Understanding the Components of Bank Failure Resolution Costs

In this paper, we demonstrate how the resolution costs associated with over 1,000 bank failures from 1986 to 2007 are distributed across the method of resolution, bank size, regulatory periods, and the existence of fraud. In addition, we document the time spent in the resolution by the resolution method and legislative period. Finally, we show how various classes of claimants against the failed banks bear the costs of the failure.     

Permanent and transitory shocks on real and nominal exchange rates in Turkey during the post-1980 period

With the adoption of export-led growth and a liberal exchange rate regime in a post-1980, high-inflation country like Turkey, it becomes important to measure the relative importance of permanent and temporary shocks on real and nominal exchange rates (RER and NER, respectively) and the decomposition of the RER into these two components. This task was undertaken by using a structural vector autoregressive approach which entailed restricting the long-run response of the RER only to real shocks. Both the bilateral and the effective rates were considered. For the post-1980 period, several discoveries were made. First, except for Italy, real shocks were dominant in explaining the fluctuation in the RER. Second, the changes in the price ratio determined the permanent component in the RER, again, with the exception of Italy. Third, it takes three to four years for both the RER and the NER responses to reach their permanent levels.