On competition for listings

We construct a model whereby stock exchanges take a new role as an information intermediary, notably absent in their roles. We show that exchanges differentiate themselves at subgame perfect equilibrium and will not race to the top or to the bottom.     

North–South Outsourcing,Immigration, and Skilled Wages: Through the Lens of Incomplete Contracts

The forces of immigration and offshore outsourcing are subject to factors that leave sufficient room for incompleteness in a contract. The authors present a model that allows one to compare the effects of immigration and offshore outsourcing, on skilled wage, when both are subject to contractual incompleteness. They capture the sensitivity of the effect on the skilled wage, of immigration and offshore outsourcing to complementarities between firm‐specific human capital and human capital that is transferable across firms manufacturing intermediate goods. In particular, the authors show that the North–South gap in skilled wages is likely to (i) increase through the forces of immigration when the intermediate goods' technology is super‐modular in the North but sub‐modular in the South and (ii) decrease through the forces of outsourcing when the intermediate goods' technology is sub‐modular in the North but super‐modular in the South.     

Swidden Agriculture in Developing Countries

Small farmers in many tropical developing countries practice swidden agriculture. A key aspect of swidden agriculture is the time period during which the land is left fallow. This paper uses a new ecological–economic approach to study the fallow period and to determine the optimal length of this period in swidden agriculture. The authors first construct a theoretical model of a parcel of forest land that has been cleared for swidden agriculture. It is then shown how the dynamic and the stochastic properties of this cleared land can be used to derive two objective functions for a small farmer that are ecologically meaningful. Finally, using these two objectives, a probabilistic approach to the determination of the optimal length of the fallow period is discussed. In this approach, the focus of the small farmer is on maintaining the ecological and the economic sustainability of swidden agriculture on the cleared parcel of forest land (CPFL).     

An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long-term interest rates

This paper evaluates the multiperiod forecasts of Moody's Aaa corporate and the 10-year Treasury bond rates from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We show that the SPF forecasts are not rational since they fail to be unbiased and, in some cases, do not fully incorporate the information in the past actual rates. These forecasts, however, are useful, since they are able to accurately predict the direction of change in the actual series. We also formulate a model that utilizes the information in the SPF forecasts of the unemployment rate. Comparable four-quarter-ahead forecasts of the two interest rates from this model are shown to be significantly more accurate than the corresponding SPF forecasts for 2001.1-2004.4.     

State Prevailing Wage Laws and School Construction Costs

Critics of prevailing wage laws claim that their elimination will cut total public construction costs by 15 to 25 percent. Justification for this assertion may be found in a 1983 study comparing the cost of public construction regulated by the Davis-Bacon Act with the cost of similar private construction. However, this study failed to account for the difference in the cost of public and private buildings absent . Using F. W. Dodge data for 1991 to 1999, we show that the inclusion of the appropriate controls in a study of new school construction costs finds no statistically significant difference between the cost of public schools built with prevailing wage regulations.     

Technology for Sale

Free trade in commodities typically leads to gains for all participating countries. These gains can be augmented by trade in productive factors if returns differ between countries. But such trade would not exhaust potential gains if technological knowledge, not embedded in productive factors, differs between countries. Using a Ricardian model this paper shows how a country which has an absolute advantage based on technology in both commodities in a two-commodity world can gain by selling, giving, or even bribing the other country into using the advanced technology in the other country's export sector. If each country has an absolute advantage in the single commodity it produces, an exchange of technology for the other commodity can nonetheless lead to extra gains for both countries.     

Effects of parking and cordon charge policies on tourist's modal shift in central business district of Mashhad city,Iran

The second largest holy city of the world, Mashhad, attracts high volumes of tourists and pilgrims every year. Most visitors travel by private car and are a source of considerable funds for the local economy. Among road users, tourists as one of the major traveller categories in Mashhad city behave differently due to the particular trip purpose. The aim of this research is to model tourist's shifting modes of travel behaviour when policy measures, such as the parking and cordon fares, are implemented. The tourists’ preferences were examined using binary logit analysis when different options of travel cost and time scenarios were provided. Results indicate that travel time, parking cost, cordon cost, education level and vehicle price influence tourist's modal choice. In addition, the finding shows that congestion pricing will be more effective than a parking pricing strategy in encouraging switching of modes.     

On Offshoring and Trade Deficit

The paper constructs a general equilibrium model of North–South trade with nontraded goods, real exchange rate, and a continuum of components that North partly offshores to South. It is shown that a protectionary policy which restricts offshoring may have the unintended consequence of widening the trade deficit.