Improving the Accuracy of Recent Survey Forecasts of the T-bill Rate

This study concentrates on the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to demonstrate a way to improve the consensus forecasts of interest rates. It promotes the notion that, in improving the survey forecast accuracy of a variable, one should investigate the usefulness of the predictive information contained in the survey forecasts of other theoretically relevant variables. This idea has been applied to the SPF forecasts of the 3-month Treasury-bill rate, which are shown to be one-sided for 2001.1-2003.4. We improve the accuracy of these forecasts by exploiting the predictive information contained in the SPF forecasts of inflation and output growth. We thus recommend that the possible improvement should be investigated before such interest rate forecasts are utilized for decision-making.JEL Classification C530     

Market interconnection and wages

We show that wage behavior as well as the skilled–unskilled wage gap depend on elasticity of import demand. Although, our analysis is in the spirit of the Stolper–Samuelson theorem, factor intensity plays no role in our results.     

Islamic economics versus market economics： The concept of taxations

Taxation plays a major role in both market economics and Islamic economics. The difference is that in market economics, the tax system has evolved throughout the centuries in order to address the constant change in market-based societies. In Islamic economics, however, the tax system bases on the writings of the Qur＇an and the principles of shariah. As a result, it did not flourish as the needs of Islamic society changed. Therefore, governments in Islamic countries that seek to follow Islamic law are facing major economic challenges. Recently, some Islamic scholars have asserted that Islamic governments can go beyond the explicit instructions of the Qur＇an and impose taxes as needed. They justify their arguments based on the interpretation of Qur＇anic verses. This paper briefly compares both rationality and the methods of taxation in both market economics and Islamic economics, and further elaborates on the shortcomings of the original Islamic tax laws.     

Bank image in the UAE: Comparing Islamic and conventional banks

This study investigates how bank customers in the UAE view Islamic banks versus conventional banks and whether this image affects customer loyalties or selection of a bank. We distributed a questionnaire to a convenient sample of UAE bank customers that focused on five areas: bank image, bank products, service quality, cultural aspects and religious factors, in addition to demographic attributes of the sample. The main findings of this study are: first, most UAE bank customers prefer banking with Islamic banks, although they are not satisfied with the quality of products and services; second, customers generally have a positive image of whatever bank they dealt with; third, the regression analysis results indicate that the most important factor in choosing a bank was bank products followed by service quality and then religious factors; fourth, there is a significant difference between how customers perceive UAE Islamic banks versus conventional banks; fifth, there is a significant difference in how customers perceive UAE Islamic banks based on their gender, education and duration of the relationship; and finally, there is a significant difference in how customers perceive UAE conventional banks based on their gender.     

International entrepreneurship research agendas evolving: A longitudinal study using the Delphi method

Journal of International Entrepreneurship - The heterogeneity of research topics in international entrepreneurship (IE) makes the identification of a convergent research agenda difficult....     

The evolving international entrepreneurship orientations and international entrepreneurship capital in the rapidly changing and digitizing international environments

Journal of International Entrepreneurship - The relationship between entrepreneurial orientations and internationalization has been examined extensively, but the recent developments in the rapidly...     

Floods,food security,and coping strategies: Evidence from Afghanistan

In this paper, we assess the long‐term effect of floods on food security (as measured by calorie and micronutrient consumption) by applying an instrumental variable approach to data from the Afghanistan National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment survey. To identify the determinants of this effect, we also estimate how floods affect per capita yearly household income and poverty status. We find that exposure to flooding during a 12‐month period decreased daily calorie consumption by approximately 60 kcal while increasing the probability of iron, vitamin A, and vitamin C deficiency by 11, 12, and 27 percentage points, respectively. Controlling for price shocks and income only marginally reduces this flood effect on food security, suggesting that impaired livelihoods (rather than price hikes) are its primary driver. We further determine that exposure to this natural disaster decreases income by about 3% and makes flood‐affected households about 3 percentage points more likely to be poor. Lastly, we show that experience of floods is strongly and significantly associated with lower diet quality and quantity, and with engaging in consumption smoothing coping strategies, such as buying food on credit and taking loans. These findings underscore the serious direct impact of floods on both diet and effective behavioral responses to such shocks while emphasizing the need for targeted micronutrient supplementation in disaster relief and food aid measures even after the period of natural disaster emergency.     

Unemployment governance,labour cost and earnings management: Evidence from China

This study investigates the effect of labour cost on earnings management based on the panel data of listed firms in China. We use the average wage of employees in firm level as the proxy for labour cost. Firms with rising labour cost become more likely to engage in negative earnings management to conceal profits or report losses. The effect becomes more significant in state-owned enterprises, labour-intensive enterprises, firms in high unemployment-rate regions and firms with political connections. Further research finds that, under the institutional background of Chinese unemployment governance, firms get more government subsidies and tax preferences and reduce the excessive employment through negative earnings management. To a certain extent, this weakens the policy effect of unemployment governance. Overall, our conclusions are meaningful to the reform of unemployment governance, the standardisation of earnings management behaviour, the improvement of the government subsidy policies and the improvement of the efficiency of public resource allocation.     

Kleptocracy and tax evasion under resource abundance

Evidence has shown that petroleum wealth is associated with less transparency and at the same time less tax collection. In this paper, we find that the two issues are linked through the citizens’ tax evasion behavior. We develop a model to explain this link and conduct extensive empirical tests of its validity. The explanation is that officials tradeoff greater transparency to improve tax compliance against less transparency to increase gains from corruption. Oil windfalls diminish tax revenue needs, causing officials to optimize on less transparency. Seeing this, citizens optimize on a lower level of tax compliance. At equilibrium, both decline with a positive oil shock. We also study the alternative channel in which tax compliance responds to enforcement. Transparency is found to be the more robust channel. Ignoring citizens’ strategic behavior would lead to predicting suboptimal investment in state capacity for tax enforcement. Using giant oil discoveries data combined with oil price data, we develop a dynamic composite instrument and estimate the model with a dynamic panel system generalized method of moments. We find robust support for our explanation and the model's deep structure for 130+ countries and the 1980–2010 period.