新时期我国户改新思路：基于政策创新的视角

改革开放以来,我国从中央到地方所进行的一系列户改探索不能简单地归纳为制度改革,更应该是政策创新。政策创新是公共管理思维的变迁所形成的新模式,基于政策创新模式,新时期我国户改既关注户籍政策内容的科学合理,又关注如何制定科学合理的户籍政策并使其发挥实效。新时期应着力从价值取向、创新主体、配套机制、法制化、政策学习等方面着手,加快推进我国户籍政策创新。     

创新求发展 和谐铸辉煌

创新求发展在竞争日趋激烈的电力市场中,要谋生存、求发展、创效益,必须在管理创新上有先人一步的工作观念,在技术更新上有领先一步的科技意识,在经营决策上有高人一筹的发展眼光。处在丰水贫煤省份的广西,柳电克服诸多困难,以技术创新、管理创新、机制创新为载体,推行经营新理念,实践发展新思路,促进了发展和效益的双赢。工欲善其事,必先利其器在技术创新上,坚持走科技兴电之路,把握电力技术的最新潮流,吸收国内电厂的技改经验,积极运用到公司的技术更新和设备改造上,使"科技是第一生产力"充分体现在效益增长上。“十五”期间,公司每年的技…     

意义、困境与向路:我国地方人大立法协商研究

立法协商是地方人大实现科学立法、民主立法和依法立法的有效途径和重要举措。随着我国立法实践的发展,虽地方立法协商工作取得了卓著成效,但也存在着诸多待解难题,如立法协商主体角色定位不清、实现过程有待明确、意见收集渠道缺失等。鉴于此,地方人大立法应充分体现地方人大主导地位、实现立法协商制度化规范化、紧紧依靠人民群众开展立法协商,进而以协商民主的方式为地方立法工作凝聚共识、汇集民智。     

What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia?

Open Economies Review - Asian countries have high demand for US dollars and are sensitive to US dollar funding costs. An important, but often overlooked, component of these costs is the basis...     

The intertemporal risk-Return relation,investor behavior,and technical trading profits: evidence from the G-7 countries

The intertemporal risk-return relation and investor behavior are both important pricing factors that jointly determine the expected market risk premium. Using the price adjustment process as a control variable, we find that the intertemporal risk-return relation is positive conditional on bad market news, but is non-positive conditional on good market news. This implies that good (bad) market news weakens (strengthens) the positive risk-return relation. The pattern in the distortion of the risk-return relation is consistent with short-term mispricing in which investors overvalue (undervalue) the stock market in reaction to good (bad) market news. We also show that ignoring the price adjustment process in the estimation of the risk-return relation leads to model misspecification and induces an upward (downward) bias in estimates of the relative risk aversion parameter conditional on good (bad) news. Our model of the asymmetric risk-return relation along with the price adjustment process is capable of generating the return dynamics that is attributable to technical trading profits. We suggest that the profitability of technical trading rules is not a violation of market efficiency, but a consequence of trading rules exploiting the asymmetric effect of price changes on the risk-return relation, along with the persistence property of price changes.     

Is it still economic to build a new coal-fired power plant in the U.S.? A real option analysis

In the U.S., virtually no new coal-fired power plants have been built in recent years. Both industry experts and academics seem to believe that no rational firm will build a new coal-fired plant. Will such a trend continue in the future? To provide insights into this question, we investigate the optimal decision of an electricity company with an irreversible and deferrable opportunity to build either a new coal-fired or natural gas-fired power plant as its new base-load resource. According to our real option analysis, the optimal decision depends on the location. In the case of the eastern U.S., it is optimal to choose a natural gas plant if a firm is given a choice among a new natural gas plant, a new coal plant and deferring the investment. However, contrary to the common sentiment in the industry and academia, building a new coal plant in the western U.S. is still more economical than building a new natural gas plant in the absence of emission pricing. Furthermore, introducing carbon pricing to western U.S. states, as California did, can substantially increase the probability that a firm will optimally choose a natural gas plant over a coal plant.     

金融资源配置、技术进步与经济高质量发展

随着我国发展阶段及内外部条件的变化,科技创新已成为新时代引领我国经济高质量发展的核心驱动力。本文以金融驱动技术进步的视角,构建内生增长DSGE模型,分析金融资源配置、技术进步和经济增长之间的关系。研究佐证了我国技术创新的逆周期性,并发现金融资源在企业生产性投资与创新投资之间的分配,可以通过改变生产要素投入规模和技术进步率两种途径影响经济增长,且这两种影响之间存在“跷跷板”关系,但后者更具主导性。在此基础上,诠释了金融、技术与经济的动态传导机制:经济扩张期,企业生产规模扩张,金融资源对生产性投资的支持增加,对创新的投入相对减少,技术进步率放缓;经济收缩期,企业缩减生产规模,金融资源对生产性投资的支持减少,对创新的投入相对增加,技术进步率提升。本研究的政策启示为,面对当前发展新矛盾、新挑战,应把握发展新格局、新机遇,进一步深化金融改革,优化金融资源配置机制,鼓励创新投资,充分发挥股权市场对企业研发创新的支持作用,并辅以稳健适度的宏观调控政策,为企业创新提供良性的宏观环境,激活企业创新需求,促进技术进步,推动经济高质量发展。     

机器人可以缓解老龄化带来的中国劳动力短缺问题吗

本文基于机器人替代能力的视角,分别从理论和实证角度探讨机器人能否缓解中国人口老龄化带来的劳动力短缺问题.本文提出衡量机器人替代能力的估计方法,使用2000-2015年58个国家的相关数据,将机器人对劳动力的替代能力进行了估计.估计结果表明,目前一台机器人平均每年大约可以替代60000～83000个小时的劳动工作量,工具变量模型和稳健性检验结果也进一步证明了这一结论.最后,通过使用技术创新扩散模型对机器人密度进行预测,结合本文估计出的机器人替代能力,解答了未来中国的机器人能在多大程度上缓解劳动力供给不足压力的问题.实证结果表明,机器人能够弥补的劳动力工作可以部分抵消由人口老龄化带来的劳动力短缺问题,这对更全面地理解中国人口老龄化问题及相关政策调整有十分重要的意义.     

Can commodity futures risk factors predict economic growth?

This paper examines whether commodity futures risk factors can predict future economic growth. We test risk factors capturing various spot or term premia and find that only three factors capturing term premia on the basis-momentum, basis, and change in slope are robust predictors for future economic growth, especially for long horizons. Our findings highlight the importance of the term premia, rather than the spot premia on which the literature has mainly focused. Moreover, we find that possible explanations for predictability of commodity factors—the intertemporal asset pricing model and information diffusion explanation—are all inconsistent with our empirical results.