Improving forecasting performance using covariate-dependent copula models

Copulas provide an attractive approach to the construction of multivariate distributions with flexible marginal distributions and different forms of dependences. Of particular importance in many areas is the possibility of forecasting the tail-dependences explicitly. Most of the available approaches are only able to estimate tail-dependences and correlations via nuisance parameters, and cannot be used for either interpretation or forecasting. We propose a general Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting tail-dependences and correlations as explicit functions of covariates, with the aim of improving the copula forecasting performance. The proposed covariate-dependent copula model also allows for Bayesian variable selection from among the covariates of the marginal models, as well as the copula density. The copulas that we study include the Joe-Clayton copula, the Clayton copula, the Gumbel copula and the Student’s $t$-copula. Posterior inference is carried out using an efficient MCMC simulation method. Our approach is applied to both simulated data and the S&P 100 and S&P 600 stock indices. The forecasting performance of the proposed approach is compared with those of other modeling strategies based on log predictive scores. A value-at-risk evaluation is also performed for the model comparisons.     

Supply chain integration and operational performance: The contingency effects of production systems

The boundary conditions of supply chain integration (SCI) have been widely studied in order to find out when SCI is applicable and effective. However, prior studies have mainly focused on external contextual factors, such as supply complexity, environmental uncertainty and country-level infrastructure. This study contributes to the SCI literature by examining the contingency effects of internal production systems on the relationship between supplier integration, customer integration and operational performance. Based on organizational information processing theory, we provide evidence to show that the impact of supplier and customer integration on operational performance varies across production systems, such as one-of-a-kind production, batch production and mass production systems. The empirical results also reveal how supplier and customer integration can be matched with different configurations of production systems in order to achieve the desired quality, flexibility, delivery or cost performance.     

Moderating effect of capital intensity on the relationship between leverage and financial distress in the U.S. restaurant industry

During the recent and ongoing economic turmoil, countless businesses have been facing financial distress and many have filed for bankruptcy. This issue is especially critical for the restaurant industry due to restaurants’ sensitivity to economic fluctuations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the financial distress issue in the U.S. restaurant industry. In particular, the study examines a moderating effect of capital intensity on the relationship between a firm's leverage and degree of financial distress. The dataset includes publicly traded U.S. restaurant firms during the period 1990–2008. The study measures the degree of financial distress by modified Z-scores, and findings suggest a positive moderating effect of capital intensity on the relationship between leverage and financial distress.     

Effective communication styles for the customer-oriented service employee: Inducing dedicational behaviors in luxury restaurant patrons

The goals of this study were (1) to identify the optimal facets of communication style for customer-oriented service employees and (2) to examine the ways in which the customer-oriented service employee (COSE) induces luxury restaurant patrons’ dedicational behaviors. Customer dedicational behaviors are defined as ‘a set of active and positive customer voluntary behaviors towards a business induced by high relationship quality’. Based on the existing body of communication literature, nine types of communication styles were derived. Theoretical relationships between the nine communication styles and the COSE also were developed via literature review, and causal relationships between the COSE and three different types of consumer dedicational behavior styles were subsequently suggested. By integrating the derived theoretical hypotheses, a conceptual model was proposed and then tested utilizing data collected from 527 luxury restaurant patrons. The results of data analysis revealed that five types of communication styles (attentive, friendly, impression leaving, open, and relaxed) bear a positive impact on COSE, while one communication style (contentious) bears a negative impact. It was also found that the customer-oriented service employee plays a critical role in inducing three types of dedicational behaviors in consumers: enhancement, cooperation, and advocacy. The key theoretical and managerial implications of these findings are discussed in the latter part of this article.     

Evolutionary Characteristics of China＇s Intermediate Manufactures

China's economic development is characterized by progressive integration with international production chains as an assembly producer. Japan and South Korea are the major partners providing intermediate products to China. The present paper analyzes the Chinese intermediate sector's present condition and evolutionary characteristics revealed in bilateral trade with Japan and South Korea. The analysis uses the framework of new trade theory represented by “intra‐industry trade”. Trade statistics from 1997 to 2004 are analyzed using the database published by the OECD. Results show that China's inter‐industrial evolution is characterized by its expanding positioning in the manner of the flying geese development paradigm of Asian countries. Furthermore, intra‐industrial evolution is characterized by a concentration on price competitiveness. The framework and results of the industrial analysis presented in this paper assist in the understanding of China's manufacturing evolution and of the policy‐making decisions taken in the process.     

三级土地利用总体规划环评体系研究

研究目的:研究国家、省和市三级土地利用规划环境影响评价体系和技术.研究方法:文献资料法,对比法.研究结果:土地利用总体规划环评应以规划的重点内容为主要评价对象,但国家和省级规划环评应以定性评价指标为主要构成,而市级规则应以定量评价指标为主要构成.研究结论:应根据不同层级土地利用总体规划的特点,有针对性、有重点的开展环境影响评价.     

跨境网购中的消费者反馈信息和信任相关因素研究

随着在国外网站购物的消费者数量的增加,跨境电子商务的发展已极具潜力。本文针对"跨境网购意愿"的影响因素展开调查,建立了一个基于信任和风险的消费者行为模型;本文针对模拟的三个反馈场景,调研了912个样本,重点检验了"来自不同国家消费者的信息反馈对上述因素之间相关性的影响"。研究结果表明,在跨境网购时,"风险"和"信任"对购买意愿有影响,但二者受消费者反馈信息的影响相对较小,而其他因素间的相关性则会受到样本组间差异的影响,比如,在含反馈信息的样本组中,对电子商务的"普遍信任"会显著影响消费者对某一具体境外购物网站的信任。     

中国出口中间产品市场集中度:质量竞争还是价格竞争?

文章利用2000~2006年中国海关微观数据,采用产品的单位价格和赫尔芬达尔-赫希曼指数(HHI)分别测度产品的质量和市场集中度,考察了中国出口中间产品的质量对其市场集中度的影响。实证研究表明,单位价格测度的中间产品质量对市场集中度有显著的负向影响,这意味着宏观上中国中间产品出口企业没有采用质量竞争策略提高市场份额,而是采用价格竞争策略来获得市场份额。实证研究还发现,进口中间产品质量、双边中间产品贸易规模、出口企业数量和贸易国收入水平对中国出口中间产品市场集中度有负向影响,而中国行业平均工资和行业人均固定资产对中国出口产品市场集中度具有正向影响。     

新疆支农贷款在新农村建设中的效益分析

自从西部大开发政策实施以来,新疆的支农贷款逐年增多,新疆农业与农村经济也取得了很大的成就,农业生产条件比以前明显改善,但其效益不佳。本文主要运用柯布—道格拉斯函数和相关系数模型对支农贷款在新疆社会主义新农村建设中的效益进行分析,并提出相关政策建议。     

物价稳定、货币流通速度与宏观调控愿景把握

对欧美国家和我国曾经发生的货币流通速度陡升型通胀和货币流通速度陡降型通缩进行实证分析表明,现阶段我国货币流通速度似处于一个非渐变、非常规的特殊时期,相关不确定性因素一旦演变为确定性的组合,很可能产生经济运行中的某种临界转换点,并可能对我国货币政策和宏观政策调控带来挑战。应加强对货币流通速度的监测和对货币需求变化的研究预测,进而优化市场预期管理和宏观应急管理,提高应对货币流通速度突变型通胀、通缩的能力,以更好地追求与维护物价稳定和提高宏观调控水平。