Subsidy‐induced Dumping

More than two‐thirds of all anti‐subsidy investigations in the EU are paired with an anti‐dumping investigation against the same non‐EU producers. The outcome may be a two‐component duty where one duty addresses the ‘unfairness’ of the subsidy and the other the dumping behaviour. The philosophy behind this practice is that, at least to some extent, the observed dumping has been induced by the subsidy, and as the GATT Treaty, Article VI commits the claimant not to impose double remedies for the same ‘misbehaviour’, it is necessary to make an assessment of the hypothetical dumping without the subsidy. The EU quantification of the hypothetical dumping margin assumes that an export subsidy translates fully to the dumping margin, while a domestic subsidy leaves the dumping margin unchanged. Using an oligopoly model, we show in this paper that in case of an export subsidy, the EU anti‐dumping duty is lower than the predicted hypothetical dumping margin from the oligopoly model. For a domestic subsidy, the results are ambiguous, and the difference between the size of the duty following the EU procedure and the model predictions is relatively small.     

Finite sample inference for quantile regression models

Under minimal assumptions, finite sample confidence bands for quantile regression models can be constructed. These confidence bands are based on the “conditional pivotal property” of estimating equations that quantile regression methods solve and provide valid finite sample inference for linear and nonlinear quantile models with endogenous or exogenous covariates. The confidence regions can be computed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We illustrate the finite sample procedure through two empirical examples: estimating a heterogeneous demand elasticity and estimating heterogeneous returns to schooling. We find pronounced differences between asymptotic and finite sample confidence regions in cases where the usual asymptotics are suspect.     

非传统安全研究的概念和方法:话语分析的启示

从后结构主义和女性主义、建构主义、哥本哈根学派、批判安全研究、人的安全和后殖民主义安全研究等非传统安全研究的主要路径入手,作者分析了安全研究的指涉对象,认为不将指涉对象在个人和集体间进行二分法式的先验选择,而是将之视为包含个人和集体组织的统一体,如此则可以在非传统安全研究内部实现卓有成效的交流。从历史分析的角度,国家行为体在安全研究中一直占据着特殊地位。在非传统安全研究的话语分析中,基本话语可以通过文本解读来确认,其价值在于它提供了一种分析视角,许多不同的身份和政策在此视角下可以被视为一个具有内在联系的体系,并且根据它们可以找到争论分歧的关键点。对安全的分析至少有两种方法,即文本解读法和从文本中辨认话语的话语识别法。将安全作为一个话语(这一话语的指涉对象包括个人和集体)进行分析是非传统安全研究的前沿方法。     

Technological regimes in m-commerce: Convergence as a barrier to diffusion and entrepreneurship?

During the dotcom-period, a commonly shared belief was that m-commerce and m-payment would become just as successful as GSM and SMS. Although the ICT industry has successfully recovered from the dotcom crisis, m-commerce has still not had much success: why has the diffusion of m-commerce and m-payment been so slow, almost absent in Europe and USA? The article suggests that the obstacles accounting for this are plausibly systemic and related to factors that hinder the establishment of a new technological regime for m-commerce. Diffusion of m-commerce will require convergence of numerous disparate and competing elements and systems that at present belong to, or are controlled by, different sectors. The article presents a case study of a dotcom firm fictitiously entitled PinkFish in order to demonstrate these factors. By embracing a strategy of convergence based on symbiosis and co-operation, m-commerce may enter a rapid diffusion process in the future.     

Models of Quality‐Adjusted Life Years when Health Varies Over Time: Survey and Analysis

Abstract.  Quality‐adjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from time trade‐off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning the SG method as the gold standard for estimation of the health state index, re‐examining the role of the constant‐proportional trade‐off condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from discounting.     

Is rising RTS a figment of poor data?

While using detailed firm-level data from the private business sector, this study identifies two empirical puzzles: (i) returns-to-scale (RTS) parameter estimates rise at higher levels of data aggregation and (ii) estimates from the firm level suggest decreasing returns to scale. The analysis shows that, although consistent with rising estimates, neither entry/exit nor the Basu-Fernald [Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications. Journal of Political Economy 105, 249-283) aggregation-bias effect drives this result. Rather, rising and too low RTS estimates seem to reflect a mixture of random errors in factor inputs at the firm level. It turns out, in fact, that a 7.5-10 percent error in labor (hours worked) can explain both puzzles.     

Exchange Rates,Non-Traded Goods and the Terms Of Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand

This article formulates and tests for New Zealand a model of exchange rate determination focusing on non-tradeable goods and terms-of-trade shifts. We emphasize the equilibrium properties of this framework and, in this context, estimate an error correction model where adjustment in response to deviation from equilibrium is an important determinant of short-run exchange rate movements. We estimate the model using a new data series on the supply of non-tradeable goods. The model has desirable empirical characteristics, including a plausible error correction equation, strong support for cointegration and rapid convergence to the long-run equilibrium. Moreover, a variety of diagnostic statistics, including parameter stability tests andout-of-sample forecasting performance, indicate the equation is a parsimonious representation of the data. These results provide considerable support for the emphasis on ‘real’ determinants of nominal exchange rates, in this case fluctuations in non-traded goods supply and terms-of-trade.     

The red queen in organizational evolution

We propose that competitive success and failure evolve through an ecology of organizational learning. An organization facing competition is likely to engage in a search for ways to improve performance. When successful, this search results in learning that is likely to increase the organization's competitive strength, which in turn triggers learning in its rivals—consequently making them stronger competitors and so again triggering learning in the first organization. We elaborate the conditions under which this self-reinforcing process, known in evolutionary theory as the ‘Red Queen,’ is likely to be adaptive or maladaptive. Adaptive consequences are predicted only for recently experienced learning. Experience in the more distant past of an organization's life, by contrast, is predicted to backfire into a ‘competency trap.’ We predict maladaptive consequences when organizations face many, varied cohorts of rivals. We empirically distinguish these effects using ecological models of competition. Estimates of organizational failure rales reveal a Red Queen among Illinois banks, and support our predictions.