The New Basel Capital Accord: Making it Effective with Stronger Market Discipline

In January 2001 the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision proposed a new capital adequacy framework to respond to deficiencies in the 1988 Capital Accord on credit risk. The main elements or 'pillars' of the proposal are capital requirements based on the internal risk-ratings of individual banks, expanded and active supervision, and information disclosure requirements to enhance market discipline. We discuss the incentive effects of the proposed regulation. In particular, we argue that it provides incentives for banks to develop new ways to evade the intended consequences of the proposed regulation. Supervision alone cannot prevent banks from 'gaming and manipulation' of risk-weights based on internal ratings. Furthermore, the proposed third pillar to enhance market discipline of banks' risk-taking is too weak to achieve its objective. Market discipline can be strengthened by a requirement that banks issue subordinated debt. We propose a first phase for introducing a requirement for large banks to issue subordinated debt as part of the capital requirement.     

跨国石油巨头何去何从

从表面上看，对于石油行业来说，没有比当下更好的时代了。需求迅猛增长，全球供给紧张，将油价一路推升至历史高点，至今尚未看到向下的拐点。虽然新的开发和开采项目的投资水平已经达到历史最高，大型石油公司仍然富余足够现金返还股东，未来的5至8年内在开发项目上仍将持续产出。     

What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?

We propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock, while controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock. We explicitly allow for the possibility of announcement effects, i.e., that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future, but not at present. We construct the impulse responses to three linear combinations of these fiscal shocks, corresponding to the three scenarios of deficit‐spending, deficit‐financed tax cuts and a balanced budget spending expansion. We apply the method to US quarterly data from 1955 to 2000. We find that deficit‐financed tax cuts work best among these three scenarios to improve GDP, with a maximal present value multiplier of five dollars of total additional GDP per each dollar of the total cut in government revenue 5 years after the shock. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Subprime crisis and board (in-) competence: private versus public banks in Germany

We examine evidence for a systematic underperformance of Germany's state-owned banks in the current financial crisis and study if the bank losses can be traced to the quality of bank governance. For this purpose, we examine the biographical background of 592 supervisory board members in the 29 largest banks and find a pronounced difference in the finance and management experience of board representatives across private and state-owned banks. Measures of 'boardroom competence' are then related directly to the magnitude of bank losses in the recent financial crisis. Our data confirm that supervisory board (in-)competence in finance is related to losses in the financial crisis. Improved bank governance is therefore a suitable policy objective to reduce bank fragility.
— Harald Hau and Marcel Thum     

Inflation Risk, Hedging, and Exports

This paper analyzes optimal production and hedging decisions of a risk-averse exporting firm in a developing country. The firm cares about real profits, since the spot exchange rate and the domestic price level are uncertain. It is demonstrated that a separation property holds although there are two sources of risk and only one hedging instrument exists. The authors examine the optimal risk management of the firm. In contrast to most hedging models, the real risk premium is important for the optimal hedging strategy.