Public choice interpretations of distributional preference

This essay examines, from the perspective of both economics and ethics, the logical foundations of income transfers in a democratic society that allocates resources, in the large, through free markets. Such transfers, enacted through the public choice process, modify the market-determined distribution of income, as a reflection of the distributional preferences of the members of a society. Both constitutional and post-constitutional explanations of redistributions are considered. A discussion of recent experimental evidence of distributional preferences leads into a critique of simple equality, built on Michael Walzer's distinction between monopoly and dominance, as a criterion of distributive justice.     

Prospect theory in the wild: how good is the nonexperimental evidence for prospect theory?

ABSTRACT

Prospect theory is widely thought to be one of the best-confirmed accounts of human decision-making under risk. There are numerous claims in the literature that various kinds of nonexperimental, observational evidence provide strong support for prospect theory. We investigate the veracity of these claims using a set of philosophy of science morals and a careful delineation of models of choice under risk, focussing on the extant versions of prospect theory and their various components. We challenge the claim that prospect theory is well supported because it explains the equity premium puzzle. In addition, we analyse a major international survey thought to support prospect theory and argue that the support is questionable, both for statistical reasons and because the evidence itself is mixed. Our analyses highlight some important ideas in the philosophy of science and caution against strong claims about support for prospect theory that rely on nonexperimental, observational evidence.     

The impact of tax on foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence and the implications for tax integration schemes

We estimate the impact of taxation on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, using data on flows between seven countries for 1984 through 1989, and a sophisticated measure of the cost of capital. We find that the choice between domestic investment and total outward FDI is not significantly affected by taxation but that taxation does affect the location of outward FDI. These results are used to examine the impact of tax integration systems. Giving a tax credit to foreign shareholders may induce a large increase in inward FDI from exemption countries but not from partial-credit countries. For the United States, the total effect would be small.     

Book Reviews

Ruth McVey (ed.), Southeast Asian Capitalists, Ithaca: Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, 1992, pp. 218.

Joan Hardjono (ed.), Indonesia: Resources, Ecology and Environment, Singapore: Oxford University Press, 1991, pp. xvi + 262. Cloth: A$50; £25.

Chris Dixon, South East Asia in the World-Economy: A Regional Geography, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991, pp. xv + 281. Paper: A$29.95; Cloth: npg.

Kym Anderson (ed.), New Silk Roads: East Asia and World Textile Markets, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, for the Trade and Development Series, National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University, 1992, pp. xxvi + 24. A559.50.

K. S. Sandhu et al. (comps), The ASEAN Reader, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1992, pp. xxvi + 582.

Kim Seung Jin and Suh Jang-Won (eds), Cooperation in Small and Medium-Scale Industries in ASEAN, Kuala Lumpur: Asian and Pacific Development Centre, 1992, pp. xiv + 389.     

Long-term forecasting methods: Emphasis and institutions

There are many explanations why the more structured and formalised techniques of forecasting have not yet provided major input to government policy except in specialised areas. This article gives an assessment of the present state of the art in our ability to predict the consequences of current actions in the long-term future. The relevance of this to the ongoing debate about the place of formal methods in policy analysis is considered. In many instances it seems that the methods used run counter to the ideal of scientific liberalism to which the forecasters and officials involved often subscribe. The article indicates where institutional arrangements can be adjusted to ensure that the forecasting ability available is better employed, and points to areas in which forecasting methodologists should increase their attention if forecasting methods are to support more open and more flexible institutional arrangements.     

Insurance Derivatives: A New Asset Class for the Capital Markets and a New Hedging Tool for the Insurance Industry

The number and severity of natural catastrophes has increased dramatically over the last decade. As a result, there is now a shortage of capacity in the property catastrophe insurance industry in the U.S. This article discusses how insurance derivatives, particularly the Chicago Board of Trade's catastrophe options contracts, represent a possible solution to this problem. These new financial instruments enable the capital markets to provide the insurance industry with the reinsurance capacity it needs. The capital markets are willing to perform this role because of the new asset class characteristics of securitized insurance risk: positive excess returns and diversification benefits.
The article also demonstrates how insurance companies can use insurance derivatives such as catastrophe options and catastrophe-linked bonds as effective, low-cost risk management tools. In reviewing the performance of the catastrophe contracts to date, the authors report promising signs of growth and liquidity in these markets.