Price transmission and volatility spillovers in Asian rice markets: Evidence from MGARCH and panel GARCH models

ABSTRACT

This article examines world rice price transmission and volatility spillovers across six major Asian rice markets over the period 2005-13. In addition to the conventional GARCH models, we use a panel GARCH framework to estimate the spillover effects along with the consideration of heterogeneity and interdependence among countries. Empirical results suggest that changes in the world rice price affected not only the price levels of domestic rice markets but also their conditional variances. Moreover, interdependence across rice markets contributed to a strong spillover of a price shock in one country to another within the region.     

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises

We characterize the values of government debt and the debt's maturitystructure under which financial crises brought on by a loss of confidence inthe government can arise within a dynamic, stochastic general equilibriummodel. We also characterize the optimal policy response of the government tothe threat of such a crisis. We show that when the country's fundamentalsplace it inside the crisis zone, the government may be motivated to reduceits debt and exit the crisis zone because this leads to an economic boom anda reduction in the interest rate on the government's debt. We show thatthis reduction can be gradual if debt is high or the probability of a crisisis low. We also show that, while lengthening the maturity of the debt canshrink the crisis zone, credibility-inducing policies can have perverseeffects.     

Promote or Perish? A brief note on academic social networking sites and academic reputation

ABSTRACT

This commentary explores some of the reputational issues of using academic social networking sites (ASNS) such as ResearchGate, ResearcherID, ORCID, Academia.edu, Google Scholar, and Mendeley for academic self-promotion and considers whether the adage of ‘Publish or Perish’ has been recently overshadowed by the new imperative of ‘Promote or Perish’?     

Book Reviews

Richard Higgott and Richard Robison (eds), Southeast Asia: Essays in the Political Economy of Structural Change, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1985. £18.00 (cloth)

John Wong, The Political Economy of China's Changing Relations with Southeast Asia, London: Macmillan Press, 1984, pp. xvi + 246.

Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, Perdagangan dan Industri dalam Pembangunan [Trade and Industry in Development], Jakarta: LP3ES, 1985, pp. 133.Thee Kian Wie

Masyarakat Indonesia, 12(3), Jakarta: LIPI, December, 1985. Special issue edited by Thee Kian Wie, entitled 'Kaitan-Kaitan Vertikal Antar-perusahaan dan Pengembangan Sistem Subkontraktor di Indonesia: Beberapa Studi Kasus' [Vertical Linkages between Firms and the Development of the Subcontracting System in Indonesia: Several Case Studies].

D. B. G. Denoon, Devaluation under Pressure: India, Indonesia and Ghana, Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1986, pp. xi + 260. US$28.75

John W. Mellor and Gunvant M. Desai (eds). Agricultural Change and Rural Poverty, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985, pp. xix + 233. US$27.45.

'Indonesia's Transmigration Programme: A Special Report', The Ecologist, Vol. 16, No. 2/3, 1986. £4.00     

Marcus Aurelius, the Stoic Ethic, and Adam Smith

In The Theory of Moral Sentiments (TMS) Adam Smith draws on the Stoic idea of a Providence that uses everything for the good of the whole. The process is often painful, so the Stoic ethic insisted on conscious cooperation. Stoic ideas contributed to the rise of science and enjoyed wide popularity in Smith’s England. Smith was more influenced by the Stoicism of his professors than by the Epicureanism of Hume. In TMS, Marcus Aurelius’s “helmsman” becomes the “impartial spectator,” who judges actions in terms of the way they are seen by others. This is the key to justice, without which society collapses. Business school students should be taught that Smith’s “invisible hand” is best understood as a universal rationality that uses just actions for the benefit of the whole.