Conditional density forecast of China’s energy demand via QRNN model

We propose a new method for conditional density forecast of China’s energy demand through quantile regression neural network (QRNN). This method has at least two advantages. First, it is flexible to explore the true nonlinearity in the energy demand system via neural network structure. Second, it is able to describe the whole conditional distribution of energy demand via quantile regression. In the empirical study on China’s energy demand, QRNN outperforms several classical methods in terms of forecast accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample. Considering China’s economic and social environment, we set a scenario for predictors and forecast the conditional density of China’s energy demand from 2015 to 2020. The empirical results show that the conditional density curve moves to right and its dispersion increases over time, which indicates that the energy demand in China will keep growing with an average annual rate of 9.672% and its uncertainty is enlarged with 42.210%.     

平台战略内核：网络效应概念演进、测度方式与研究前沿

大量研究虽以平台战略为主题，但并未将网络效应这一平台内核特征纳入分析建模，使得研究缺乏理论深度。采用文献计量和内容分析相结合的方法对网络效应相关研究进行梳理。分析发现：网络效应研究经历了3次理论演进，即同边网络效应向跨边网络效应演进（内容）、网络效应是什么向网络效应有何影响演进（作用）、网络正效应向网络负效应演进（后果）。三大演进从网络效应测度方式和行业情境中亦可窥见。结合关键词突变分析，发现网络效应最新研究已开始从关注网络效应“后果”转向“前因”考察。结合战略管理最新研究趋势，提出未来网络效应前因研究可以从个体行为、关系嵌入、种群生态、制度环境4个层面展开。特别是随着平台模式从消费互联网向产业互联网延伸，网络效应作用和激发方式是亟待关注的研究议题。     

世界经济两大板块变化趋势研判

百年变局在经济上的一个重要表现就是,发展中国家作为一个整体自20世纪90年代初冷战结束以来,获得了显著高于发达国家的经济增长率.在21世纪第一个十年,发展中国家继续保持了对发达国家的经济增速优势.但在第二个十年中,这种增速优势有所减少.资源价格、发达国家进口需求和国际直接投资流动,在最近十年出现了与经济全球化黄金时期不同的表现.2020年发生的疫情及其宏观经济政策效应,从长远看也可能给发展中国家的相对经济增长带来不利影响.针对发展中国家经济发展外部环境的重要变化,中国提出的"双循环"新发展格局应是一种积极和及时的回应.在新方针指导下,发展中国家需要以更加有效的方式做好改革开放.     

浅析内部经济责任审计风险与防范

当今国家注重开展廉洁教育,因此对领导干部的经济收支进行严格监控的工作便应运而生。各国对于审计情况的规定各不相同,我国把审计工作的重心放在了行政事业单位的内部,行政机关工作人员的工作过程受到严格的规制,是对党政机关从事各种活动进行监督和管控的有效方式。内部经济责任审计是一种特殊的审计形式,它独具风格的审计体系建立在受托性质的责任关系上。因此本文将对内部经济责任审计制度进行深入分析,首先了解内部经济责任审计概念特点,从而掌握这项制度存在的风险,以此提出具体的解决措施。通过完善内部经济责任审计制度,推动风险调控系统的建立,实现行政事业系统健康持续发展。     

Government Initiated Corporate Social Responsibility Activities: Evidence from a Poverty Alleviation Campaign in China

Journal of Business Ethics - In 2016 the Chinese government initiated a nationwide campaign aiming to eliminate poverty in China by 2020. Over 20% of listed firms in China have made significant...     

Unintended Consequences of Lockdowns: Evidence from Domestic Helpers in Urban China

This paper addresses the reactions of domestic helpers to the Wuhan (Hubei Province) lockdown that began on January 23, 2020. We use a novel dataset containing the information of over 40,000 Chinese domestic helpers registered on a leading professional website from November 2019 to June 2020. The results indicate a declining pattern of short-term labor supply of domestic helpers across 11 major Chinese cities, which shows an increase in the expected monthly wage of domestic helpers in these cities. More importantly, using a difference-in-difference (DID) model, this paper provides some evidence on the existence of labor market discrimination against domestic helpers born in Hubei Province due to employers’ fear of infection.     

General equilibrium trade modelling with Canada–US transportation costs

Transportation costs are an important topic in international trade, but seldom have researchers paid attention to general equilibrium trade modelling with transportation costs and explored their relevant effects. This paper uses numerical general equilibrium trade model structures to simulate the impacts of transportation costs on welfare and trade for a Canada–US country pair case. We compare two groups of model structures: Armington assumption models and homogeneous goods models. Within these two groups of models, we also compare balanced trade structures to trade imbalance structures and production function transportation costs to iceberg transportation costs. Armington goods models generate more absolute welfare gains from transportation cost elimination than homogeneous goods models. Welfare gains under balanced trade structures are larger in production function transportation cost scenarios than in iceberg transportation cost scenarios, but under trade imbalance structures, welfare gains are greater under iceberg transportation cost scenarios. Canada's welfare gains in the iceberg transportation cost scenario are significantly larger than gains in the production function transportation cost scenario. On trade effects, homogeneous goods models generate more export and import gains, balanced trade structures have more trade variations, and iceberg transportation costs generate more trade effects.     

跨学科视角下政府资产负债表编制研究——概念比较及协调策略

政府资产与负债核算涉及国民经济核算、政府财政统计、政府会计等不同学科领域,作为政府资产、负债记录载体的政府资产负债表也具有不同的学科属性与特征.研究分别从微观、中观与宏观三个不同层次构建了政府资产负债表跨学科协调框架,并分析了政府资产负债表跨学科协调的意义.研究还由表及里地剖析了不同学科视角下政府资产负债表的编制逻辑及概念体系,在此基础上结合国民经济核算体系、政府财政统计手册与国际公共部门会计准则等国际规范,系统地比较了不同核算体系下政府资产负债表在核算目标、核算主体、要素定义、计量方法与列报格式等核心概念上的差异.研究最后在深化国家治理体系改革的时代背景下,设计了我国政府资产负债表跨学科协调方案与策略,以期为我国国家资产负债表、政府财政统计报告及政府财务报告编制与改革提供跨学科理论与技术支持.     

Institutional Ownership and Private Equity Placements: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms

This paper examines the impact of institutional ownership on the performance of private equity placements (PEPs) for listed firms in China. We find that the presence of institutional investors can alleviate the information asymmetries between listed firms and the market. The market reaction to PEP announcements is significantly smaller if there is a higher portion of institutional shareholdings. Long‐term firm operational performance after PEPs is positively correlated with institutional shareholdings. Moreover, we find that the relationship between institutional shareholdings and PEP performance is mainly driven by nonlisted corporate investors and mutual funds. Finally, the relationship between PEP performance and institutional shareholdings is stronger in smaller PEP issuers.