Linear transformations of vector ARMA processes

Linear transformations of stochastic processes are used in many ways in economic analyses, for example when linear aggregates or subprocesses are considered. It is demonstrated that a linear transformation of a vector ARMA process is again an ARMA process and conditions for stationarity are given. Three different predictors for a linearly transformed process are compared. Forecasting the original process and transforming the predictions is superior to forecasting the transformed process directly and to transforming univariate predictions of the components of the original process. Conditions for equality of the three different forecasts are provided.     

An Input–Output Analysis of the Nonprofit Sector in the USA and Germany

This paper presents an exploratory input–output analysis of the nonprofit sectors in former West Germany and the USA based on the conceptual and data structure provided by the System of National Accounts. When compared with the USA, the West German nonprofit sector catered more to government demands. A higher proportion of West German nonprofit services went to government and a smaller proportion went to households. In terms of the multiplier effect of nonprofit output, we find that an additional dollar of nonprofit services delivered to households and/or government induced indirectly an additional 83 cents of business output in the USA. By comparison, West Germany's nonprofit sector had a lower multiplier effect, with 43 Pfennig per DM1. We also find that businesses have a much larger stake in nonprofit production as intermediate suppliers when compared to their role as intermediate consumers. The economic position the nonprofit sector occupies in both countries is that of a producing sector, taking inputs from businesses and providing outputs for households and governments. This general structural characteristic suggests that the nonprofit sector is particularly sensitive to changes in government policies as well as to shifts in private household incomes, yet relatively insensitive to demand changes in other industries.     

Do funded pensions contribute to higher aggregate savings? A cross-country analysis

Do Funded Pensions Contribute to Higher Aggregate Savings? A Cross-Country Analysis.—In this paper we test the hypothesis that increases in funded pension wealth contribute to higher aggregate savings by employing a panel data set of ten countries over the 1982–1993 period. We develop a proxy for changes in funded pension wealth for this sample of countries based on pension fund asset data. Using this measure and controlling for other determinants of savings, we estimate the relationship between aggregate saving rates and changes in funded pension wealth. Our results suggest that the build-up of pension assets exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on aggregate saving rates, and that this impact differs for OECD and non-OECD countries. JEL no. E21, G23, O57