Dominant design or multiple designs: the flash memory card case

Literature suggests that in battles between competing designs, ultimately one design will emerge as dominant to the detriment of the others. Various factors and forces have been identified to explain this phenomenon. Yet, sometimes no dominant design emerges at all and multiple competing designs coexist in the market. The flash memory card industry provides an example of this. In this study, we use this example as a case to investigate the circumstances under which an industry has a tendency toward multiple designs. The case shows that a combination of factors may result in multiple designs and we argue that such a combination of factors will increasingly also apply in other cases.     

Liberal Fair Value Accounting in Banks: A South African Case Study

Research findings on the role of fair value accounting (FVA) in the global financial crisis suggest that FVA is not applied neutrally by banks. The results of FVA are accepted when they contribute to higher profits and are actively resisted when they lead to losses. The aim of this article is to investigate how FVA is practically applied by banks in detail. The focus is on banks as most of their assets are financial instruments and thus potentially fair valued, and banks’ behaviour is significantly influenced by their regulatory environment. The research objective is pursued by using a case study of two South African banks. One of these is the largest and most systemically important bank in the South African system and the other is on the crossover between systemic and not systemic. It is found that FVA as applied by these two banks is not neutral. Also included is a demonstration of a method to derive the unrealised portion of profit and equity, the identification of the gap between assets and liabilities at fair value as the driver of where in a banking group FVA profits and losses are realised, and the finding that the restatement of comparative figures was used to circumvent the prohibition on reclassifications into and out of the ‘designated as at fair value’ category.     

Attaining Sustainable Farm Management Systems in Semi-Arid Areas in Kenya: Few Technical Options,Many Policy Challenges

Soils in arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) are fragile, low in fertility and susceptible to erosion and leaching. To address these problems, activities were implemented in 1998–2003 to identify current problems, and design, test, implement, demonstrate and disseminate improved, integrated soil fertility management techniques. Current soil fertility management results in slightly negative nutrient balances, especially for phosphorus and potassium. Recycling of nutrients through crop residues and animal manure is inefficient, with evidently high losses. Due to the relatively high price of fertilisers and the high risks of crop failure, use of mineral fertilisers is restricted to market-oriented farms with access to irrigation facilities. Of the total farm household population, 35–85% lives below the poverty line. Applying higher rates of Farm Yard Manure (FYM) and/or fertilisers is unattractive and risky. Combinations of FYM and fertilisers give better financial returns than either of the two alone. Where irrigation is available, farmers adopt innovative farming systems that include higher application of mineral and organic fertilisers, and result in higher and more stable yields and higher financial returns. A set of specific policy measures for the semi-arid areas were identified to arrive at necessary changes in the economic environment, leading to a wider range of financially attractive technology options for smallholders.     

Project selection based on intellectual capital scorecards

In this paper we present a tool for the selection of a project portfolio in knowledge intensive organizations. Standard methods mostly focus on project selection on the basis of expected returns. In many cases other strategic factors are important such as customer satisfaction, innovation capacity, and development of best practices. These factors should be considered in their interdependence during the process of project selection. Here the point of departure is the intellectual capital scorecard in which the indicators are periodically measured against a target. The scores constitute the input of a programming model. From the optimal portfolio computed, clear objectives for management can be derived. The method is illustrated in an industrial case study. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decomposition of GDP Growth in Some European Countries and the United States

Summary  The composition of economic growth can be analyzed in two different ways. In the ‘traditional method’ for the decomposition of GDP growth, total imports are deducted from exports. This approach underestimates the importance of exports for the growth in GDP, and overestimates the importance of domestic expenditure categories. In the alternative methodology proposed in this paper, imports are allocated to all expenditure categories. Although this ‘import-adjusted method’ is more complex than the ‘traditional method’, it has the considerable advantage that the contributions of the expenditure categories to GDP growth provide a better understanding of why GDP growth decelerates or accelerates. The methodology and data requirements for calculating the import content of final demand, and the implications for the decomposition of real GDP growth, are discussed. For six European countries and the United States, the paper shows that applying the alternative methodology provides rather a different economic story.      

Foreign Exchange Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis: A Regression-Based Approach

This paper investigates whether, during the Asian crisis, contagion occurred from Thailand to the other crisis countries through the foreign exchange market, and, if so, determines the contribution of this contagion to the crisis. More specifically, we examine whether the effect of the exchange market pressure (EMP) of Thailand, the origin of the crisis, on the EMP of four Asian crisis countries increased during the crisis. Instead of measuring contagion by the commonly used correlation coefficients, we apply regression analysis. To control for the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals, we construct a time-varying indicator measuring the fragility of each economy. Additionally, we control for spillovers and common external shocks. We find evidence of contagion from Thailand to Indonesia and Malaysia, with 13 and 21 percent of the pressure on the respective currencies attributable to that contagion. For Korea and the Philippines there is no evidence of contagion from Thailand. JEL no. F30, F31, G15     

Does Environmental Economics Produce Aeroplanes Without Engines? On the Need for an Environmental Social Science

In this paper we first critically review conventional environmental economics. We conclude that the standard theory offers too narrow a perspective for many real world problems and that many theories are not empirically tested. Consequently, environmental economics is at risk of producing aeroplanes without engines. Next, we welcome and discuss some recent trends, particularly the rapid developments of behavioural and new institutional economics as well as the increased interest in empirical analysis. Yet, we conclude that more ‘logical duels’ between competing theories, more interaction between theory and empirics, and more integration between the social sciences are needed to achieve a better understanding of real world environmental problems and the development of adequate policy handles. Finally, we present an outline of steps towards the development of an environmental social science and briefly present the papers that make up this special issue as important building stones of such a discipline.     

Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence

While virtually all currency crisis models recognise that the decision to abandon a peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, this is seldom modelled explicitly. We add the threat of an interest rate defence to the global game model of Morris and Shin (American Economic Review 88, 1998). With an endogenous defence, actions of speculators may become strategic substitutes instead of the usual complements. Nevertheless, our generalised model remains tractable and has a unique threshold equilibrium. It provides additional insights. For instance, the threat of an interest rate defence makes speculation riskier and this may be sufficient to keep speculators out when fundamentals are still relatively strong.     

One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) uses a large macroeconomic model to create forecasts of various important macroeconomic variables. The outcomes of this model are usually filtered by experts, and it is the expert forecasts that are made available to the general public. In this paper we re-create the model forecasts for the period 1997-2008 and compare the expert forecasts with the pure model forecasts. Our key findings from the first time that this unique database has been analyzed are that (i) experts adjust upwards more often; (ii) expert adjustments are not autocorrelated, but their sizes do depend on the value of the model forecast; (iii) the CPB model forecasts are biased for a range of variables, but (iv) at the same time, the associated expert forecasts are more often unbiased; and that (v) expert forecasts are far more accurate than the model forecasts, particularly when the forecast horizon is short. In summary, the final CPB forecasts de-bias the model forecasts and lead to higher accuracies than the initial model forecasts.