金融担保机构信用风险的生成机理研究

在企业申请担保贷款投资项目中,大多数中小企业（特别是科技型中小企业）缺乏可抵押标的,这导致了中小企业信贷交易中担保风险的生成。企业申请担保贷款投资项目的平均成功概率与企业提供的担保标的的价值成正相关关系;企业提供抵押是有效抑制或消除担保机构与中小企业之间信息不对称及由此而引发的逆向选择和道德风险问题的关键和必要条件。另外,在信息不对称的情况下,信用担保行业的系统性风险越小,意味着信用担保实践的平均成功率越高,这将诱发经理人道德风险的发生。     

对上海崇明“家电下乡”政策实施情况的调研报告

况“家电下乡”是深入贯彻落实科学发展、积极扩大内需的重要举措,是财政和贸易政策的创新突破。“家电下乡”政策实施以来,总体进展顺利,为强农惠农,拉动消费带动生产,促进产业结构优化,应对国际金融危机发挥了积极作用。“家电下乡”在上海崇明的实施过程中存在一些问题,需从改进宣传手段、区分不同区域购买力、加强售后服务以及调整最高限价和提升产品档次这四个方面加以完善。     

The Theory and Practice of Corporate Risk Management*

The financial crisis of 2008 and the resulting recession caught many companies unprepared and, in so doing, provided a stark reminder of the importance of effective risk management. While academic theory has long touted the benefits of risk management, companies have varied greatly in the ways and extent to which they put theory into practice. Drawing on a global survey of over 300 CFOs of non‐financial companies, the authors report that while most CFOs felt that their risk management programs have significant benefits, the risk management function in general needs more attention. A large percentage of the finance executives surveyed acknowledged that the most important corporate risks extend far beyond the CFO's direct reports, and that risk‐based thinking is not incorporated into everyday business activities or corporate strategies. A large majority of executives also said they were seeking a more widespread understanding of risk throughout their organizations—and many confessed their firms' inability, or lack of interest, in evaluating their own risk management functions. At the same time, the efforts of most companies to develop enterprise‐wide risk management (ERM) programs were said to fall well short of the comprehensive and highly coordinated programs envisioned by the proponents of such programs. Three areas of opportunity were clearly identified as having potential to improve corporate risk management in ways that increase firm value over an entire business cycle:

• ? Incorporate risk management thinking into the strategic planning process. Line executives, and not just technicians, need to be sensitive to risks, thereby building flexibility into the firm's business plan and its execution.
• ? Clearly define the objectives of the risk management function, in part by developing appropriate benchmarks. The risk management process should be subject to the same rigorous evaluation process that is used when measuring risks throughout the business.
• ? Instill a risk management culture throughout the organization. While an effective risk management function is necessary, only when employees at all levels of the company embrace risk management as part of their daily operations will the firm get maximum value from risk management.

     

功能视角下我国现代农村金融组织体系的建构研究

文章在综述金融抑制和金融深化理论的基础上,分析了我国现有农村金融组织体系存在的功能性缺陷,提出了我国现代农村金融组织体系的科学定位及其功能视角下的科学架构.     

商业银行新增信贷的统计与时间序列模型研究

为不断改善商业银行流动性和信用风险管理水平,减少商业银行的亲周期效应,同时不断提高货币政策的效果,开展商业银行信贷投放的量化研究非常重要.本文在对某大型商业银行新增贷款进行统计分析的基础上,对贷款规模的变动规律进行了时间序列模型的拟合,并进行了趋势预测和实证检验.研究认为,商业银行信贷投放具有显著的日、周、月不同的概率统计分布特性,时间序列模型可以作为前瞻性地开展信贷规模管理的重要工具.     

总分行体制下的分行经济增加值运用

本文从经济增加值的内涵入手,通过分析江苏镇江地区二级分行经济增加值运用情况及其效果,研究了影响分行层面经济增加值的因素,并以某地方性商业银行为样本建立回归模型进行实证研究,进而得出了总分行体制下对提高商业银行基层分行经济增加值具有普适性的对策建议.     

客户关系的新时代

就像网络那样,CRM(客户关系管理)先是创造了一个狂热的浪潮,而随后是幻想的破灭。     

当前国有林区改革模式对比与评价

国有林区管理体制落后、经营机制不活是长期存在的问题,目前针对国有林区体制机制问题的改革正在探索之中。文章综合对比了目前国有林区改革的主要模式,深入分析了各改革模式的特点和存在的问题,认为国有林区改革应该由中央政府主导、地方政府积极参与,并共同承担改革成本,最终建立中央直管的国有森林资源管理体系,逐步理顺管理机构与企业之间的关系。     

包容性发展视角下的农村创新系统重构

经济快速增长下的诸多问题如贫富差距加大、就业压力、资源短缺、环境恶化等对现有的发展模式提出了挑战,如何在新形势下通过创新实现农村地区包容性发展已成为政策要点。这需要在厘清包容性发展理论的基础上,认识到农业和农村产业集群包容性发展的重要性,并对已有的农业和农村产业集群创新系统进行重构,从而实现包容性、可持续、平衡的经济增长。