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51.
Laursen LH Hansen HL Jensen OC 《International journal of injury control and safety promotion》2008,15(2):109-117
The purpose of the study was to study the circumstances and incidence rates of fatal accidents in inspection obligated and non-inspection obligated Danish fishing vessels to identify areas for prevention. Information about the fatalities came from maritime authority reports, including vessel disaster reports, post mortem reports, maritime inquiries and police reports. The person- and vessel years at risk came from the Danish Directorate of Fisheries. During the period 1989-2005, 114 fatalities occurred. Sixty-one of the fatalities occurred in 36 vessel disasters mainly caused by foundering/capsizing due to stability changes in rough weather and collisions; 39 fatal occupational accidents mainly occurred on the larger inspection obligated trawlers during fishing. In the remaining 14 other fatal accidents, the main causal factors were difficult embarking/disembarking conditions by darkness in foreign ports and alcohol intoxication. In the period 1995-2005, the overall incidence rate was 10 per 10,000 fishermen per year with no down-going trend during that period. The fatal accident rates are still too high, despite the efforts to reduce the risk. Increased focus on regular and repeated safety training for all fishermen and improved safety measures are needed, especially in the underscored areas of sea disasters concerning small vessels and occupational accidents on big vessels. Better registration of time at risk for fishermen is needed to validate the effect of the safety measures. 相似文献
52.
53.
Psychological studies are frequently cited in the business and finance literature to bolster claims that various kinds of economic disasters, from the large proportion of start-ups that quickly go out of business to the exaggerated confidence of financial investors, can be attributed to overconfidence. This article reviews some of the problems associated with concluding that people overestimate the accuracy of their judgments based on observed overconfidence measured as the difference between mean subjective probability and proportion correct. Methodological and statistical artifacts, such as regression, can explain many of the observed instances of apparent overconfidence. 相似文献
54.
Regulating a Polluting Firm Under Asymmetric Information 总被引:1,自引:3,他引:1
This paper reinterprets the Laffont-Tirole model of regulation under asymmetric information to cover the case of pollution control. The asymmetry of information concerns the firm's cost of lowering its pollution. The regulator has three objectives: Ensuring an efficient abatement level, generating 'green taxes' and securing the survival of the firm. We show that when optimal abatement is important relative to tax generation, the regulator cannot use the policy of offering the firm a set of linear tax schemes from which to choose. By contrast, this policy is optimal in the Laffont-Tirole model under certain not very restrictive assumptions. We proceed to establish a simple rule for when to shut-down inefficient types. In an example with specific functional forms, we derive the optimal tax function both analytically and graphically. We show the effect on the optimal tax system of a change in a technological parameter. 相似文献
55.
J?rg Baetge Gerhard Schewe Roland Schulz Henrik Solmecke 《Journal für Betriebswirtschaft》2007,78(11):183-219
Im Rahmen einer übergreifenden Analyse empirischer Arbeiten wird der State-of-the-Art der Forschung zum Zusammenhang von Unternehmenskultur
und Unternehmenserfolg dargelegt. Neben der inhaltlichen Analyse des Zusammenhangs liegt der Schwerpunkt des nachfolgenden
Beitrags auf einem Review der Messung von Unternehmenskultur und Unternehmenserfolg, wie sie sich in den betrachteten Zusammenhangsanalysen
zeigt. Aufbauend hierauf werden die Grundzüge je eines Konzeptes zur Messung der Unternehmenskultur und des Unternehmenserfolges
entwickelt, welche als Ausgangsbasis verstanden werden k?nnen, um in weiterführenden Untersuchungen den Zusammenhang von Unternehmenskultur
und Unternehmenserfolg für die unterschiedlichsten Unternehmen zu bestimmen. 相似文献
56.
Henrik Pålsson Henrik Sternberg 《International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications》2018,21(2):115-132
ABSTRACTThis paper addresses a road transport policy of allowing high capacity vehicles (HCVs) on the roads. The purpose is to examine the effect reduced road transport costs from HCVs can have on a modal shift. Two studies of HCV implementation in Sweden were combined. A micro-based case study modelled the distribution network of a major retailer in scenarios based on actual cost and flow data. A macro analysis was conducted of the cross-elasticity between rail and road combined with detailed price changes for lorries considering the product characteristics in different industries. The results show the long-term effects of HCVs on the modal shift for heavier, and heavier and longer vehicles. The combined approach triangulates the results and highlights the effects of logistics decision-making, transport network characteristics, and time. It emphasises linkages between modal shift and road transport efficiency, price reductions, geographical characteristics, product types, train organisation, and the capacity of HCVs. 相似文献
57.
Henrik Müller Gerret von Nordheim Karin Boczek Lars Koppers Jörg Rahnenführer 《Publizistik》2018,63(4):557-582
The use of digital methods offers a chance to connect communication science with economics. In recent years, a growing body of research in economics has turned its attention to media content, assuming that journalistic coverage contains hitherto neglected information relevant for business cycles or financial market movements. Interestingly, these approaches largely ignore communication science’s established theories and empirical findings. This paper aims at building a bridge between the two disciplines. Its contribution is threefold: a) it provides an overview of the most important approaches in economics that incorporate media content; b) it operationalizes the concept of the “narrative”, as it is used in economics, and distinguishes it from the concept of the “frame”, essential in communication science; c) exemplifying our approach, we present a new Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) based on the topic modeling method Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), that enables us to isolate different factors of economic policy uncertainty contained in media coverage.Economic studies treat journalistic media content as a proxy for sentiment prevalent in society. Typically, they rely on frequency analyses of certain keywords, like “recession” or “inflation”. Even more sophisticated approaches, such as Shiller (2017), who calls for establishing a new branch of “narrative economics”, or Baker et al. (2016), who construct a comprehensive set of media-based indicators, make no or little reference to communication science. This neglect could be discounted as pure ignorance, but this misses the point. Being a predominantly empirical discipline today, economics relies on long time-series of data, that have not been available for media content, a gap rendering the two disciplines largely incompatible.The gap is also reflected in terminology. “Frame” is a major analytical concept in communication science, while the term “narrative” has become in vogue in economics. Although both concepts are closely connected, they are rarely properly distinguished from each other. “Frame” can be considered as a rather static concept that applies during a limited period of time. “Narrative”, in contrast, implies dynamic properties, i.?e., the sorting of events, causes and effects over time, that explain how the current state of the world has come about, as stressed by Tenenboim-Weinblatt et al. (2016).In this paper, we propose a synergetic concept. Following Entman (1993), a media frame contains four elements: a) a problem definition, b) a problem diagnosis, c) a moral judgement, and d) possible remedies. We augment this approach by adding two more elements. According to our definition, a media narrative comprises a frame, or several ones, plus e) one or several protagonists—persons, institutions, or social groupings (nations, classes, etc.)—, whose relationships are (often) antagonistic and may change over time; and f) events, that are chronologically integrated and that are (often) assumed to constitute causal relationships. To put it metaphorically: a frame is to a narrative what a still photo is to a movie. Both are valuable concepts; the still photo shows more details, while the movie provides a contextualization over time.Topic models like LDA are valuable tools for the measurement of media narratives. The probabilistic approach enables researchers to conduct what may be called “macro-content analyses”, an exercise that focuses on average reporting patterns in large text corpora and can be translated into numerical time-series, thereby facilitating compatibility with empirical economics. Based on a topic’s frequency analysis, its top words and top articles, “mean media narratives” can be formulated, that integrate certain events, protagonists and frames.In our case study, we exemplify this concept by applying it to an indicator that is currently popular in economics, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (Baker et al. 2016). The EPU aims at capturing political developments that are exogenous to economic models and therefore unpredictable. Essentially, the indicator is based on the counts of articles containing a set of search words, such as “uncertain”, “economic” as well as institutions like the European Central Bank. Using identical search words as the EPU for Germany, we construct a similar corpus for the years 1994 to 2017. By conducting an LDA-based analysis, we are able to extract additional relevant information from the data. In particular, the evolution of different uncertainty factors and their development over time can be detected.Our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) contains six relevant news topics that are highly relevant for market developments: central banks, the national government, international politics, the business cycle, companies, and society. While the EPU merely shows how often uncertainty concerning economic policy is mentioned in the media, the UPI also indicates the origins of uncertainty. By grouping the six topics into three analytical categories—governments, markets, and society—we find a distinct break in the time-series. Before the financial crisis of 2008, the perception of uncertainty was rather balanced between the three factors. Since then, however, economic uncertainty has mainly been driven by political actors, most prominently by central banks. The corresponding narratives are a two-chapter story: in the first part, up to 2008, stable financial markets and smoothed business cycles prevailed, making central banking a rather straight-forward task. The second part is characterized by multiple crises, leaving central banks as dominant actors, that intervened with unconventional measures. Thereby, they became stabilizing forces, but at the same time sources of uncertainty with respect to the timing and the impact of these measures. 相似文献
58.
Martin Spann Holger Ernst Bernd Skiera Jan Henrik Soll 《Journal of Product Innovation Management》2009,26(3):322-335
Newly launched products in the consumer goods and services markets show high failure rates. To reduce the failure rates, companies can integrate innovative and knowledgeable customers, the so‐called lead users, into the new product development process. However, the detection of such lead users is difficult, especially in consumer product markets with very large customer bases. A new and potentially valuable approach toward the identification of lead users involves the use of virtual stock markets, which have been proposed and applied for political and business forecasting but not for the identification of experts such as lead users. The basic concept of virtual stock markets is bringing a group of participants together via the Internet and allowing them to trade shares of virtual stocks. These stocks represent a bet on the outcome of future market situations, and their value depends on the realization of these market situations. In this process, a virtual stock market elicits and aggregates the assessments of its participants concerning future market developments. Virtual stock markets might also serve as a feasible instrument to filter out lead users, primarily for the following two reasons. First, a self‐selection effect might occur because sophisticated consumers with a higher involvement in the product of interest decide to participate in virtual stock markets. Second, a performance effect is likely to arise because well‐performing participants in virtual stock markets show a better understanding of the market than their (already self‐selected) fellow participants. So far, only limited information exists about these two effects and their relation to lead user characteristics. The goal of this paper is to analyze the feasibility of virtual stock markets for the identification of lead users. The results of this empirical study show that virtual stock markets can be an effective instrument to identify lead users in consumer products markets. Furthermore, the results show that not all lead users perform well in virtual stock markets. Hence, virtual stock markets allow identifying lead users with superior abilities to forecast market success. 相似文献
59.
This paper considers the implications of international policy coordination when both monetary and fiscal policy choices are endogenous. We show that a movement from insular monetary commitment to international monetary policy coordination will, if fiscal policies are not coordinated, produce higher output and public expenditure levels at the expense of higher inflation rates. We also show that the concurrent coordination of monetary and fiscal policies raises output and inflation while lowering public expenditure relative to a regime of monetary coordination alone. We conclude that the arguments for concurrent monetary and fiscal policy coordination fail to have a clear-cut theoretical basis. 相似文献
60.
A note on Wick products and the fractional Black-Scholes model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In some recent papers (Elliott and van der Hoek 2003; Hu and Øksendal 2003) a fractional Black-Scholes model has been proposed as an improvement of the classical Black-Scholes model (see also Benth 2003; Biagini et al. 2002; Biagini and Øksendal 2004). Common to these fractional Black-Scholes models is that the driving Brownian motion is replaced by a fractional Brownian motion and that the Itô integral is replaced by the Wick integral, and proofs have been presented that these fractional Black-Scholes models are free of arbitrage. These results on absence of arbitrage complelety contradict a number of earlier results in the literature which prove that the fractional Black-Scholes model (and related models) will in fact admit arbitrage. The objective of the present paper is to resolve this contradiction by pointing out that the definition of the self-financing trading strategies and/or the definition of the value of a portfolio used in the above papers does not have a reasonable economic interpretation, and thus that the results in these papers are not economically meaningful. In particular we show that in the framework of Elliott and van der Hoek 2003, a naive buy-and-hold strategy does not in general qualify as self-financing. We also show that in Hu and Øksendal 2003, a portfolio consisting of a positive number of shares of a stock with a positive price may, with positive probability, have a negative value.Received: August 2004, Mathematics Subject Classification (2000):
91B28, 60H05JEL Classification:
G10Support of the first author from the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius foundation is gratefully acknowledged. The research of the second author is supported by the Swedish Research Council. 相似文献